$PHAROS 4 hours RSI smashed to 19.4. Extremely oversold. I’ve seen too many times in this kind of situation.
Current price 0.3549. Just one step away from the 30-day low of 0.3519.
From the high at 0.5769, it has been dumped all the way down—a 38.6% drop over 30 days. There were a few decent rebounds in the middle, with repeated contention in the 0.40–0.42 range, but it ultimately failed to hold.
The indicators are very clean. The 4-hour RSI is at 33 (value 14), and the daily RSI is at 24. Price is below all moving averages. The 4-hour EMA9 is 0.3718, EMA21 is 0.3795, and the daily EMA21 is 0.4099. Everything is lined up bearishly with no signs of divergence. The MACD 4-hour histogram is still expanding; the daily MACD just turned green by one point—almost negligible.
Volume is the key. In the big sell-off, those few 4-hour candles had volume more than twice that of the earlier period: 14 million, 6.8 million, 9 million, 16 million. Panic selling is running, and it hasn’t finished yet. The funding rate has already turned negative, at -0.035%. Short-term shorts are starting to pay, which suggests someone is buying at this level.
Structurally, 0.35 is the last psychological line. The 30-day low at 0.3519 is sitting right there. If it breaks, there is no technical support below—then you can only look at the cost-basis/position distribution. If it holds, the first resistance overhead is 0.367–0.372, where the last two rebound waves were both knocked down. Above that, 0.38–0.39 is the dense trading zone.
In extreme oversold conditions like this, rebounds usually come quickly. But it doesn’t mean an immediate reversal is guaranteed. Most likely it’s a technical correction, not a trend reversal.
Nini’s plan:
Current price 0.3549
Bias: slightly bullish
Execution conditions: a clear 4-hour close with a distinct lower wick, and the price stabilizes above 0.3520
Entry range: 0.3520–0.3580
Stop-loss: 0.3450 (admit defeat if it breaks the 30-day new low)
Targets: 0.3720 / 0.3850
My view: Oversold enough to try for a rebound, but the trend hasn’t changed. I’ll take a small position to bet on a technical repair; if it breaks 0.35, I’ll get out—no holding through it.
With it down like this, the panic should have already happened. What’s left is… patience.
#PHAROS #超卖反弹 #contract trading