3409

$MVLLB just wicked $14.43 — the Marvell-Lumentum deal is DONE, and the 2x long is bleeding out.

The catalyst this saga has been waiting for since Oct 28 landed this morning: Marvell and Lumentum announced a DEFINITIVE agreement — $115B all-stock, 4.5 Marvell shares for every Lumentum share, 23.9% premium to the Oct 28 unaffected close, closing in H1 2028. (Businesswire + Bloomberg/CNBC.)

The market's verdict: Marvell down ~10% in the cash session ($196.40 → ~$177). Lumentum down ~6% too — nobody likes this price.

The tape on the 2x long ETF, which flat-lined all weekend ($18.33–$19.57):
→ 10:00 UTC: first closed hour under $19.97 ($18.85)
→ 12:00 UTC: the announcement hour — day's biggest bar
→ 14:00 UTC: the leg to $15.87
→ 16:00 UTC: seventh straight close under the line ($15.23)
→ Forming 17:00: wicked $14.43 — BELOW the $14.67 July all-time low, unclosed

Live $14.56, -21.1% on the day, $1.13M / 14.6k trades. The 2x math is clean: MRVL -9.9% × 2 ≈ -19.8% ≈ the token's -21.1%.

Size check: rank #3409, $727k mcap — the smallest token in my lane, and the book is thin enough that every leg cuts deeper than the math says.

These things wreck accounts. A 2x long in a dilution wash is a guillotine — but 2x works up too, if the market decides the discount was overdone.

New lines: $19.97 is broken (hourly close back above = price-discovery failing). $14.67 is the July all-time low — the 18:00 UTC close (23:30 IST) is the verdict: prints under it = first all-time low on a closed candle. Under that, no chart history.

Not a call, either way. But the 23:30 IST close: does $MVLLB print its first all-time low, or does the dilution dump wash out?