Trisha_Saha

ETH UPDATE

On the daily, #ETH is retesting the descending resistance, now acting as support around ~3,260–3,270.

As long as ETH holds above this level, the breakout structure remains active similar to BTC holding 94K.
If this support holds, the bigger breakout from the triangle still points toward ~4.2K.

A daily close back below ~3,260 would invalidate the breakout and shift the bias.
Levels matter. Let the daily close confirm.

$ETH

well-defined premium supply zone (red) and a discount demand zone (green). Price has been failing to break and hold above supply, showing repeated rejections and weakening bullish momentum.

On the 1H timeframe, we are seeing:

* Lower highs forming beneath resistance
* Price struggling to reclaim the supply zone
* Momentum shifting from impulsive bullish moves to corrective / choppy price action

This suggests distribution near supply rather than continuation.

---

### Key Levels

* Supply / Resistance: ~145.5 – 146.5
→ Strong reaction zone with multiple rejections
* Current Price: ~142
→ Mid-range / no-trade zone unless confirmation appears
* Demand / Support: ~135 – 136
→ High-probability liquidity & reaction area

---

### Bias & Scenario

My primary bias remains bearish from supply unless price reclaims and holds above 146 with strong volume.

**Preferred Scenario (Red Path):**

1. Minor push or liquidity grab toward supply
2. Failure to break resistance
3. Expansion lower toward the discount demand zone (~135)
4. Potential bounce or accumulation from demand

This move would align with:

* Range trading behavior
* Liquidity sweep below equal lows
* Mean reversion from premium → discount

---

### Invalidation

* Clean 1H close above supply
* Successful retest and continuation above 146

If that happens, bearish bias is invalidated and continuation setups become valid.

---

### Execution Notes

* Avoid chasing mid-range entries
* Shorts are only valid after confirmation near supply
* Longs are only attractive at demand with reaction

📌 Patience is key — let price come to you.

$SOL

ADA is currently trading inside a well-defined range, with price reacting precisely from a premium supply zone (red) and respecting a discount demand zone (green). Recent price action shows clear rejection at resistance, suggesting weakening bullish continuation and increasing downside probability.

The structure favors mean reversion rather than breakout at this stage.

---

### Technical Context

* Multiple rejections from the 0.40–0.405 supply zone
* Failure to hold above prior highs
* Momentum shifting from impulsive to corrective
* Price currently trading below range high, indicating acceptance lower

This behavior typically precedes a liquidity-driven move toward range lows.

---

### Key Levels

* Supply / Resistance: ~0.400 – 0.405
→ Strong reaction zone, previous highs & sell pressure
* Current Price: ~0.392
→ Mid-range, low R:R for entries
* Demand / Support: ~0.345 – 0.355
→ High-probability liquidity & accumulation zone

---

### Primary Scenario (Bearish Bias)

**Red Path Projection:**

1. Possible minor push or consolidation near supply
2. Failure to reclaim 0.40 cleanly
3. Expansion lower toward discount demand (~0.35)
4. Reaction or accumulation expected at demand

This aligns with:

Range high rejection
* Liquidity resting below equal lows
* Premium → discount rotation

---

### Invalidation

* Strong 1H close above 0.405
* Bullish continuation and acceptance above resistance

If this occurs, bearish bias is invalidated and continuation setups become valid.

---

### Trade Execution Notes

* Avoid longs near resistance
* Shorts only valid with confirmation near supply
* Best long opportunities exist only at demand with reaction

📌 Patience > prediction. Let price deliver confirmation.

$ADA

XRP is currently trading at a key discount demand zone (green) after an extended corrective phase from prior highs. Price has been holding support and compressing, suggesting accumulation rather than continuation to the downside.

This structure favors a range low expansion back into premium.

---

### Technical Context

* Strong sell-off completed from prior supply
* Price stabilized and based at 2.02 – 2.06 demand
* Volatility compression + reduced downside follow-through
* Failed attempts to break lower → signs of absorption

This type of behavior often precedes an impulsive expansion move once liquidity is secured.

---

### Key Levels

* Demand / Support: ~2.02 – 2.06
→ High-probability accumulation zone
* Current Price: ~2.05
→ Discount area with favorable R:R
* Supply / Resistance Target: ~2.32 – 2.40
→ Prior distribution & premium sell zone

---

### Primary Scenario (Bullish Bias)

**Green Path Projection:**

1. Final sweep or hold above demand
2. Break in local structure / momentum shift
3. Expansion toward premium supply (~2.35)
4. Partial or full profit-taking at supply

This aligns with:

* Discount → premium rotation
* Range low accumulation
* Liquidity already taken below equal lows

---

### Invalidation

* Clean 1H close below 2.00
* Acceptance below demand zone

If this occurs, bullish bias is invalidated.

---

### Trade Execution Notes

* Long setups favored at demand with confirmation
* Avoid chasing breakouts without structure shift
* Best R:R exists while price remains discounted

📌 Risk defined. Patience rewarded.

$XRP

DOGEUSD is currently reacting from a clean demand zone after a clear sell-side liquidity sweep, and price action is showing early signs of a potential bullish reaction.

### 🔍 Market Structure Breakdown

* Price previously broke above resistance, then came back aggressively, sweeping liquidity below recent lows.
* This drop was not random — it tapped into a well-defined demand zone (green area), where buyers stepped in before.
* The red zone above represents a major supply / imbalance zone, which aligns with previous rejection and smart money selling.

### 📌 Why This Area Matters

* Multiple rejections from this demand zone in the past → strong buying interest
* Long wicks + slowing bearish momentum → selling pressure weakening
* Liquidity has already been taken → market now has room to reverse

### 📈 Trade Idea (Scenario-Based)

* Bullish bias while price holds above the demand zone
* Conservative entry: wait for a bullish confirmation candle on 1H or lower timeframe
* Aggressive entry: scaling in near demand with tight risk

### 🎯 Targets

* First target: recent minor highs (short-term relief rally)
* Main target: previous supply zone (red area) where price may react again

### ❌ Invalidation

* A strong 1H close below the demand zone invalidates this setup and signals further downside

### 🧠 Key Lesson

Liquidity first, direction second.
When liquidity is swept into a strong zone, price often reacts before the move everyone is waiting for.

⚠️ This is not financial advice. Always manage risk and wait for confirmation that fits your trading plan.

$DOGE

Here is a Btc chart set on the 1D time frame. I have set my PVP to 1M time frame. I see something really interesting here. If BTC push up towards the NKPOC, there is a huge possibility that the NK POC is a huge rejection area. If there is a big rejection in this area. I expect a right shoulder to the downside. Would be a Sale around 50k BTC. Seems like a head and Shoulder could happen this year...This could be a LONG TRAP! Must watch this!!!!!!

$BTC

The price is moving within a descending channel on the hourly timeframe. It has reached the lower boundary and is heading towards a breakout, with a retest of the upper boundary expected.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is showing a downward trend, approaching the lower boundary, and an upward bounce is anticipated.

There is a key support zone in green at 0.0210. The price has bounced from this level several times and is expected to bounce again.

The RSI is showing a trend towards consolidation above the 100-period moving average, which we are approaching, supporting the upward move.

Entry Price: 0.0216
Target 1: 0.0219
Target 2: 0.0226
Target 3: 0.0234

Stop Loss: Below the green support zone.

Remember this simple thing: Money management.

For any questions, please leave a comment.

Thank you.

$PORTAL

Ticker Symbol: ADA

Trading Venue: Coinbase

Currency Pair: USD

Distributions Level:
$0.4413
$0.5498
$0.7591
$0.8135
$1.0109
$1.3357
$1.5647

$ADA

Analysis Summary

AVAX is currently trading within a well-defined bearish parallel channel. After a significant downtrend starting in November, the price has entered a consolidation phase (sideways movement) between $12.00 and $15.25.

The current price action shows a retest of a heavy Supply Zone (highlighted in orange) and the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level ($13.25). This area is acting as strong resistance, coinciding with the upper boundary of the recent consolidation range.

Key Technical Factors
Trend: Strongly Bearish. The price remains below the primary descending trendline (blue line)

Resistance Zone: The red line at $15.25 serves as the ultimate "line in the sand" for sellers. A failure to break above this confirms the bearish bias.

Chart Pattern: Potential Bear Flag or Descending Triangle formation on the daily chart.
Fibonacci Targets: The recent bounce has hit the 0.5 - 0.618 Fib levels, which often marks the end of a "relief rally" before the trend resumes.

Trading Plan (Position Trade: 1-2 Months)
Since I hold positions for several weeks to months, I am looking for a rejection in the current zone to target lower liquidity levels.

Entry Zone: $13.80 - $14.50 (Current Resistance Area)
Stop Loss (SL): Above $15.50 (Invalidation if price breaks and closes above the red horizontal resistance).
Take Profit 1 (TP1): $11.26 (Previous Swing Low / 1.0 Fib level)
Take Profit 2 (TP2): $8.79 (1.618 Fib Extension - Major Support).

Risk Note
As this is a Perpetual trade intended for a 1-2 month hold, I am keeping leverage low (2x-3x) to withstand potential volatility spikes and managing the funding fees accordingly.
$AVAX

BTCUSD
Following a strong sell-off and liquidity sweep from higher levels, BTC formed a range before retracing into supply. The current move lacks impulsive bullish strength, indicating this is a corrective pullback, not trend reversal. Sellers remain in control below resistance.

Key Scenarios

❌ Bearish Case 📉 (Primary)
Rejection from the marked supply zone can trigger continuation lower.
🎯 Target 1: 94,600
🎯 Target 2: 93,200 (Major HTF support & liquidity)

✅ Bullish Invalidation 🚀
A strong close and acceptance above 95,900 – 96,100 would invalidate the bearish continuation and shift bias to neutral.

Current Levels to Watch
Resistance 🔴: 95,600 – 95,900
Support 🟢: 94,600 → 93,200

⚠️ Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only. It is not financial advice.

$BTC

completed a strong impulsive advance and is now stabilizing above the 1.70 support cluster, where the rising trendline and prior breakout base converge. The recent pullback appears controlled rather than aggressive, with price respecting higher-low structure inside the broader upward channel. This behavior suggests the move is corrective, not distributive.

If demand continues to hold this support zone, SUI could rebuild momentum and push back toward the 2.00 resistance area, where the previous high was formed. A sustained bid from this level would favor trend continuation, keeping upside pressure intact despite short-term consolidation.

➡️ Primary scenario: support holds at 1.70 → advance toward 2.00.
⚠️ Risk scenario: a decisive breakdown below 1.68 may weaken structure and delay the bullish continuation.

If this idea resonates with you or you have your own opinion, traders, hit the comments. I’m excited to read your thoughts!

BTCUSD is trading around $94,800–$95,200 after a clear liquidity sweep below $93,600 and aggressive rejection back into range. The weekend price action shows absorption inside a daily discount zone with buyers defending the 50 EMA and prior structural low.

Higher timeframe structure remains bullish, while intraday flow is transitioning from corrective distribution into potential continuation — depending on whether price can reclaim $96,200–$96,600.

As long as BTC holds above $93,500–$93,800, bullish structure remains intact.

⸻

📊 Technical Outlook (D1, H1, 15M–5M)

🔹 D1
• Macro trend still bullish with HH/HL sequence intact
• Price holding above daily trendline and 50 EMA
• Recent sweep into $93,600 tapped daily demand
• No confirmed daily bearish reversal pattern

🔹 H1
• Clean stop-hunt below $93,600 followed by impulsive recovery
• Price rotating back into EMA cluster from discount
• Market structure bullish while $93,500 holds

🔹 15M–5M
• Strong rejection wicks from liquidity lows
• Short-term bullish CHoCH printed
• Buyers defending intraday demand + trendline

⸻

✨ Fibonacci Golden Zones

1️⃣ BUY Swing: $93,620 → $96,180
• 38.2% = $95,210
• 50% = $94,900
• 61.8% = $94,580
🟩 BUY Golden Zone: $95,210–$94,580

2️⃣ SELL Reaction Swing: $96,180 → $94,800
• 38.2% = $95,330
• 50% = $95,490
• 61.8% = $95,650
🟥 SELL Reaction Zone: $95,330–$95,650

⸻

🎯 High Probability Zones

📈 BUY Scenario (Main Bias)
Buy Zone: $95,210–$94,580
🎯 Targets → $96,200 → $97,000 → $98,200
🛑 SL: Below $93,500

⚡️ Confirmation:
• Sweep into zone
• 5M bullish BOS
• Strong rejection from EMA/demand

—————————

📈 BUY Breakout Setup
Trigger: Break & hold above $96,600
Retest: $96,000–$96,200 hold
🎯 Targets → $97,500 → $98,800 → $100,000
🛑 SL: Below $95,400

—————————

📉 SELL Scenario (Countertrend Only)
Sell Zone: $95,330–$95,650
🎯 Targets → $94,800 → $94,000 → $93,600
🛑 SL: Above $96,200

⚠️ Only valid with strong rejection + bearish BOS.

—————————

📉 SELL Breakout Setup
Trigger: Break & close below $93,500
Retest: $94,100 fail
🎯 Targets → $92,200 → $90,800 → $89,000
🛑 SL: Above $94,900

⸻

📰 Fundamental Watch
• Weekend liquidity remains thinner — expect engineered moves
• ETF inflows still supportive for medium-term bids
• DXY corrective weakness helping BTC risk tone
• Watch CME gap behavior on Monday open

⸻

📌 Key Levels

Resistance: $95,650 / $96,200 / $97,000 / $98,200
Support: $95,200 / $94,580 / $93,800 / $93,500

Break-Buy Trigger → > $96,600
Break-Sell Trigger → < $93,500

⸻

📌 Summary

BTCUSD has completed a clean liquidity sweep into the $93,600 demand zone and is rotating higher. As long as price holds above $93,500, dips into $95,210–$94,580 remain buy-the-dip opportunities. A reclaim above $96,600 opens continuation toward $98k–$100k, while a break below $93,500 would signal a deeper corrective leg.

Trend-defining level: $93,500

— ElDoradoFx PREMIUM 3.0 Team 🚀

While the meme coins and L1s grab the headlines, Chainlink (LINK) has quietly executed a textbook structural reversal. It has finally woken up from its slumber and reclaimed critical trend levels, signaling that "DeFi Season" accumulation is underway.

Here is the deep-dive analysis for the Oracle of Crypto.

Trend Analysis: The Structure Shift
The most significant development is LINK reclaiming the Daily EMA 50 ($13.53). For weeks, this level acted as a ceiling (resistance); now, it has flipped into a concrete floor (support). We are currently trading comfortably above the Ichimoku Cloud, confirming that the macro trend has shifted from bearish to bullish.

We are seeing a classic "Stair-Step" recovery. Price pushes up, consolidates sideways to cool off indicators, and then pushes again. This is healthy, organic growth—not a FOMO pump. The price is currently squeezing between the EMA 50 ($13.53) and the EMA 200 ($16.00). In technical analysis, price always seeks to close the gap to the 200 EMA, making $16.00 our clear magnetic target.

Momentum & Indicators
The Daily RSI is sitting in the "Sweet Spot" at 62.6. This is bullish territory that indicates buyers are in control, but crucially, it is not yet overbought. We have plenty of room to run before hitting exhaustion.

On the 4-Hour Timeframe, the RSI is slightly hotter at 70.9, suggesting we might see a brief consolidation or "bull flag" around the $14.20 level before the next expansion.

Key Levels to Watch
Our primary target is the Daily EMA 200 at $16.00, which acts as the major "Boss Level" resistance. Before that, we may encounter minor friction at the local high of $14.80.

On the downside, the $13.53 level (EMA 50) is our critical line in the sand. As long as the price holds above this, the bullish structure remains intact. A close below $12.90 would invalidate this setup.

The Verdict
Chainlink is a "Trend Continuation" play. It is safer than the meme coins but offers a clear, high-probability path to upside targets. The reclaim of the EMA 50 and the position above the Cloud confirm the trend is your friend.

Strategy: Do not chase the green candles at current highs. Let the 4H RSI cool off and look for a retest of the $14.00 - $14.15 zone to enter, riding the wave up toward the $16.00 target.

$LINK

I am currently identifying a potential short-term selling opportunity. AAVE may face near-term selling pressure based on current market conditions. From a trading perspective, this is being approached as a short-duration, tactical position rather than a longer-term view.

Market conditions will be monitored closely as the situation develops.

**Disclaimer:** This communication is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.

$AAVE

XPL seems to have found its bottom and have been accumulating nicely the past month, after dropping +90% from its ATH in just 3 months this might give us a good long opportunity seeing how i also personally think overall crypto markets is going to recover/bounce too so it would line up well. It seems to be in wave "2" in a potential elliot wave, basically a small correction after its initiall rally from $0.11 to $0.21. Another explosive move like that i think might be near.

$XPL

While the meme coins and L1s grab the headlines, Chainlink (LINK) has quietly executed a textbook structural reversal. It has finally woken up from its slumber and reclaimed critical trend levels, signaling that "DeFi Season" accumulation is underway.

Here is the deep-dive analysis for the Oracle of Crypto.

Trend Analysis: The Structure Shift
The most significant development is LINK reclaiming the Daily EMA 50 ($13.53). For weeks, this level acted as a ceiling (resistance); now, it has flipped into a concrete floor (support). We are currently trading comfortably above the Ichimoku Cloud, confirming that the macro trend has shifted from bearish to bullish.

We are seeing a classic "Stair-Step" recovery. Price pushes up, consolidates sideways to cool off indicators, and then pushes again. This is healthy, organic growth—not a FOMO pump. The price is currently squeezing between the EMA 50 ($13.53) and the EMA 200 ($16.00). In technical analysis, price always seeks to close the gap to the 200 EMA, making $16.00 our clear magnetic target.

Momentum & Indicators
The Daily RSI is sitting in the "Sweet Spot" at 62.6. This is bullish territory that indicates buyers are in control, but crucially, it is not yet overbought. We have plenty of room to run before hitting exhaustion.

On the 4-Hour Timeframe, the RSI is slightly hotter at 70.9, suggesting we might see a brief consolidation or "bull flag" around the $14.20 level before the next expansion.

Key Levels to Watch
Our primary target is the Daily EMA 200 at $16.00, which acts as the major "Boss Level" resistance. Before that, we may encounter minor friction at the local high of $14.80.

On the downside, the $13.53 level (EMA 50) is our critical line in the sand. As long as the price holds above this, the bullish structure remains intact. A close below $12.90 would invalidate this setup.

The Verdict
Chainlink is a "Trend Continuation" play. It is safer than the meme coins but offers a clear, high-probability path to upside targets. The reclaim of the EMA 50 and the position above the Cloud confirm the trend is your friend.

Strategy: Do not chase the green candles at current highs. Let the 4H RSI cool off and look for a retest of the $14.00 - $14.15 zone to enter, riding the wave up toward the $16.00 target.

$LINK

On this chart I’ve mapped Bitcoin’s full impulsive structure from 2017–2025 as a completed 5-wave advance. We’ve tagged the (V) top, and what’s forming now looks like the early stages of a larger degree A/B/C – with the local (1)(2) already in and real downside still ahead.

• The prior rallies were clean impulse legs; this last stretch has all the signatures of an exhaustion wave (extended 5th, blow-off structure, and failed follow-through).

• Current bounce fits perfectly as a wave (2) retrace after the first leg down – textbook spot where late bulls feel “saved” while smart money quietly exits.

• Ahead of us I’m expecting a multi-year, 5-wave decline (1–5 on the right side of the chart), unwinding leverage, hype, and all the “number go up forever” narratives.

This isn’t the end of Bitcoin – it’s the end of this cycle. The next few years are, in my view, for skill-building, capital preservation, and accumulation at true value, not chasing tops.

Trade the levels, respect the structure… and enjoy the ride. 🚀⬆️ then 🪂⬇️...

$BTC

Market Structure
Overall structure:
After a sharp sell-off from the prior highs (left side), Bitcoin has transitioned into a range / accumulation phase, then recently broke upward from consolidation.
The series of higher lows marked by the black arrows suggests bullish structure building since late December.
2. Key Zones
🔴 Resistance Zone (≈ 100k – 104k)
This is a major supply zone where price was aggressively rejected before.
Strong selling pressure previously entered here → expect:
First test = rejection likely
Multiple tests = higher chance of breakout
The dotted mid-line inside the zone is a reaction level, not a clean breakout area.
🟡 Support Zone (≈ 88k – 90k)
Former resistance → now acting as support (role reversal).
Price recently:
Broke above it
Pulled back
Held → bullish confirmation
This zone is critical for maintaining the bullish bias.
3. Current Price Action
Price pushed impulsively to ~96–97k (strong bullish momentum).
The purple path suggests a healthy pullback:
This would likely be a bullish retracement, not weakness.
As long as price holds above the support zone, the trend remains intact.
4. Likely Scenarios
✅ Bullish Continuation (Higher Probability)
Pullback into 90k–92k
Buyers step in (bullish candle / volume)
Push toward 100k+
Possible:
First rejection
Then consolidation
Break into resistance zone
📈 Target: 100k – 104k
⚠️ Bearish / Invalid Scenario
Clean 4H close below ~88k
Would indicate:
Failed breakout
Return to range
That could open downside toward 85k–82k
5. Momentum & Volatility Insight
The smooth blue curves indicate volatility compression → expansion.
Expansion happened upward → bias remains bullish until structure breaks.
Sharp moves followed by shallow pullbacks = trend strength, not exhaustion (yet).
6. Trading Takeaway (Not Financial Advice)
Bias: Bullish while above support
Best risk area: Support retest (90k zone)
Worst place to enter: Mid-range (95k–97k)
Key decision point: Reaction at 100k resistance

Last time we looked at Monero (XMRUSD) was exactly 3 months ago (October 14 2025, see chart below) giving a buy signal at the bottom of its long-term Channel Up, which quickly hit our Target:

This time we are turning bearish long-term as the price is not only approaching the top of its 2-year Channel Up (green) but also the Top Fib of its 8-year Channel Up. At the same time the 1M RSI is vastly overbought at 85.00, typical of the Cycle Top of the previous two Cycles.

With the last one bottoming on the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, just above the 1M MA100 (red trend-line), we estimate that the emerging Bear Cycle will hit at least $215 before bottoming.

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$XMR