j13

😎😎$BTC

$BTC

This is not the ideal zone to open fresh shorts anymore imo.

Market already nuked hard into support, swept liquidity below 76k and now price is stalling instead of impulsing lower.

Trend is still bearish overall, yes. MA’s still pointing down, HTF structure still weak. But locally this looks more like a rebound-or-die zone than a clean continuation short.

If bulls reclaim 77.2k–77.5k, squeeze toward 78k+ becomes very possible.

If 76k breaks clean, then 75k–74.7k likely comes fast.

For now: not macro bullish, just cautious about shorting directly into support after a full flush.

Countertrend bounce still makes sense here.
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$BTC

Trading plan, continued

As you know, we have been mainly trading the downtrend.

Just that dull period where even the permabears admitted they were wrong and expected higher, is exactly where the market reversed back down, that 83k region.

From there, IMO the market intended to go to 75k, we traded shorts to make money on it, and we almost reached final target today.

I still want 75k as final target, but I have closed most of both, because what would be really nice is if our countertrend upside idea still plays out into the 80k region, to take another short towards the level.

So, weekly bias is bullish, daily is still bearish, and hourly is still bullish.

I'm just deciding whether I believe it's worth to play the upside hourly bias locally. I could always be wrong, and if the weight of me being wrong, is higher than the move that is most likely to happen, i.e. the move we are attempting to catch, then even if the long plays out, is not worth it.

So, my final decision is after 1 attempt to leave it, and just see it play out.

Might still change, but I just never like longing eagerly out of principle when too many people are still long locally. Could play out, but it likely usually ends up in a small move regardless.

We will see, but I think the best move on this hourly bias is to have most of the shorts closed, but not fully. A small amount must still remain open to profit into at 75k if we don't get a third clean entry nice and high and only a low bounce.

Because I already showed how to short late in the trend once, doesn't mean we have to actively seek to do it again. Having 40% of full base position open in short is perfect here I think.

So here goes the plan, the idea, the entries so far we took on shorts, the potential third entry, and the big target.
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$BTC

Even if $btc never has gone below its production cost, why does everyone still expect new lows or even 50k?

It's an exact recipe to be sidelined for generations, yet everyone is so convinced

Why do you think that is?

Understand this and you've mastered sentiment reading
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$BTC shorts

20% remaining of the late short at 78.2k, 20% of the big short from 82.3k

So the two trades I have now left open are just the two shorts.

Only going to try once for counter long trades to catch a bounce.

From here, further expected bounces are to ad to shorts. Playing my daily bias down due to target proximity.
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$BTC

CME trap completed perfectly. Longs liquidated, shorts paid massively.

Now everyone suddenly turning bullish on the first bounce, but I still think the bigger target remains unfinished.

As long as price stays below key reclaim levels, I’m still expecting 75k and potentially the 74.7k region before any real higher timeframe reversal begins.

Trend remains bearish. Patience continues to pay.

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$BTC

CME trap completed perfectly. Longs liquidated, shorts paid massively.

Now everyone suddenly turning bullish on the first bounce, but I still think the bigger target remains unfinished.

As long as price stays below key reclaim levels, I’m still expecting 75k and potentially the 74.7k region before any real higher timeframe reversal begins.

Trend remains bearish. Patience continues to pay.
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$BTC Short

76k hit clean, but I still think this move wants one more leg lower.

Watching 75k and potentially 74.7k liquidity before any meaningful reversal starts.

Trend remains bearish. Shorts continue to pay.
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$BTC shorts

Drop achieved ✅. CME gap longers liquidated now. TP1 for me here.

Alright, clean drop after building shorts over the weekend. Not just a tiny size, we added 2 portions into it in alignment with the confidence of the drop.

Had quite a bit of backlash for shorting "late" and how the market would "pump" to close the CME gap.

But we neatly detected the reasons why that wouldn't happened, drew out the plan, and confirmed with sentiment and order flow why price would go down instead.

Resulting in a clean payout.

TP1 for me here. Shaving 50% off.

Enjoy the gains.

Good weeks start well.
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$BTC shorts

Following path so far to new lows + how CME gap longers got trapped.

Alright, reaction on short play, where we added to our 82.3k shorts, is playing out so far, should lead to new lows next with a fraction of further order book efforts.

We partly have to thank the CME gap "fill" believers, because right as we entered our second portion (at 78.4k), many believed the CME gap would fill "next".

Many influencers called for it and what we saw was tons and tons of high leverage longs open (since it's a target close by, only high lev is worth it).

So market liquidates them, per plan to bring them to our target.

And clean and neat mission. Classic technical + sentiment play.
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$BTC

Weekly bullish.
Daily bearish.
Hourly bearish.

That’s the difference between understanding timeframes… and blindly screaming “up only” or “bear market” every 5 minutes.

Still holding shorts.
Still targeting lower liquidity.
75k remains the main focus until price proves otherwise.

No emotions. No guessing.
Just bias, liquidity and execution. 📉🔥
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$BTC still trading under key resistance.

Macro pressure continues building: • US 30Y yields above 5%
• Oil moving higher
• Risk assets weakening
• Market expecting higher rates for longer

As long as BTC remains below 79k–80.5k, downside pressure remains valid in my opinion.

Main zone I’m watching: 76k liquidity/support area.

Most traders react after the move happens.
I prefer planning the levels before price gets there.

Follow for HTF bias, liquidity analysis and real-time crypto setups. 📉🔥

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$BTC

Once we reach 75k and we hold the next weekly support, I will close my shorts and then my daily bias goes back to bullish most likely, aligned with my overall htf weekly bias.

Until then keeping it cautious.
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$BTC

The plan remains simple.

Macro bullish. Local bearish.

Most people still don't understand that you can short the local move while preparing for a massive higher timeframe expansion later.

75k continues to look like the magnet.
That’s where panic likely peaks.
That’s where weak hands disappear.
And that’s where the real long setup may finally appear.

Below 80k–81k, pressure remains downward.
But once the market finishes the flush, the reversal could be violent.

First fear.
Then expansion.

Everything is being documented live.

👉😎Follow if you want real multi-timeframe analysis instead of emotional guessing.
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$BTC shorts

Finally, an update on the shorts since price moves further in their favour and it's our most important trade of the week (caught at extremities)

Setting some limits (15% cut of the position).

The rest is for 75k (no limits yet).

I need some rest since it was a long day/week of trading and flying, but limits should do the job for overnight.

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Still in shorts.
Eyes on 75k. 👀
Waiting for the sweep.
$BTC #writetoearn $BTC

The sub 60/50k expectations truly remind me of the 25k in July 2021 and 12k expectations in 2022.

Just too much confidence, too much guarantee, too much "it will happen".

I get why. Being forced to buy at 80k+ while the market gifted you 60k's, is hard to cope with.
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$BTC longs

Sub 80.6k reached ✅ Added here as promised. Can we get 3 wins in a row?

Alright, per our long plan, we said we wanted to get a starting size going, for the reasons of farming some funding as the shorts pay us and not miss out on the move at the same time.

It also locks in the mindset of positioning. Whenever you are late for a trade, and are waiting for a retrace, the common psychology and habit is to not enter once the trade actually retraces and so we also want to avoid that.

Miss it once, is okay, miss it twice, not okay.

Now that we reached sub 80.6k, I would add more to that position.

It wouldn't be me if I didn't live up to a promise. We hit my local support line are reacting to it cleanly, ewhicvh is a great confirmation locally to verify bullish sensitivity.

A few more factors are at play. So now that we're here, actions are taken. Meanwhile, order flow continues to be bearish as well. That's what we want to see.

On the high timeframes, spot premium is still active and we still are keeping the right signatures to support he long term trend, meaning, new highs coming, once again.

This is the trend (zoom out on the daily) we have been playing many, many longs upon, and this is just another one on the chain.

Not one to nail with a perfect entry, that was per long plan Yesterday, but just one to ride up further.

Enjoy.
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$BTC

Some more context why I am longing so aggressively here:

Clear flip in sentiment locally whilst my system tells us this leg is not done yet.

OI still high, both on coin margined and stable margined, most people are short, whilst whales are pushing stables margined CVD.

Some CVD divs which in pumps like these are usually traps before a move into new highs.

Funding rates also negative, meaning shorts are paying us to hold our starter long position as well while we wait for price to head below 80.6k to position fully.
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$BTC longs

Sub 80.6k reached ✅ Added here as promised. Can we get 3 wins in a row?

Alright, per our long plan, we said we wanted to get a starting size going, for the reasons of farming some funding as the shorts pay us and not miss out on the move at the same time.

It also locks in the mindset of positioning. Whenever you are late for a trade, and are waiting for a retrace, the common psychology and habit is to not enter once the trade actually retraces and so we also want to avoid that.

Miss it once, is okay, miss it twice, not okay.

Now that we reached sub 80.6k, I would add more to that position.

It wouldn't be me if I didn't live up to a promise. We hit my local support line are reacting to it cleanly, ewhicvh is a great confirmation locally to verify bullish sensitivity.

A few more factors are at play. So now that we're here, actions are taken. Meanwhile, order flow continues to be bearish as well. That's what we want to see.

On the high timeframes, spot premium is still active and we still are keeping the right signatures to support he long term trend, meaning, new highs coming, once again.

This is the trend (zoom out on the daily) we have been playing many, many longs upon, and this is just another one on the chain.

Not one to nail with a perfect entry, that was per long plan Yesterday, but just one to ride up further.

Enjoy.
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