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Former U.S. President Donald Trump is preparing to launch his own coin, which is set to take place on Wednesday. While some people speculated that it might be a cryptocurrency, Trump’s project is more of a traditional product than a digital asset.

 
New Coin to Support Presidential Campaign
Donald Trump, who is running for the presidency of the United States again, announced the launch of a new coin to raise funds for his election campaign. The project, titled "Silver Medallion First Edition President Trump," aims to distribute physical silver to Americans who support his political vision and want to see him back in office. Although many of his supporters expected Trump to release a cryptocurrency, this new coin is something entirely different.
 Launch of Limited Edition Coin
Trump announced that the coin will be sold for $100 each through the website RealTrumpCoins.com. The coin will be made of 99.9% pure silver and will only be available in a limited edition. One side of the coin will feature Donald Trump’s likeness, while the other side will display the White House accompanied by the phrase "In God We Trust."
 This coin is expected to be one of several activities that Trump undertakes to secure the necessary funding for his campaign ahead of the upcoming presidential elections in the U.S. The coin comes at a time when Trump is actively seeking new ways to bolster his campaign and ensure he has the resources he needs. He stated that this silver coin is the "ONLY OFFICIAL coin" he has designed and that was minted in the U.S. under his leadership.
 Cryptocurrency Expectations Unfulfilled
In recent months, several meme coins featuring themes related to Donald Trump have appeared in the market, capitalizing on his popularity. However, Trump has distanced himself from these unofficial tokens and emphasized during the introduction of his silver coin that:
"I’ve seen a lot of coins using my beautiful face, but they’re not official. RealTrumpCoin.com is the only place to purchase the official Trump coin."
 At first glance, Trump’s announcement of a new official coin might seem related to cryptocurrency, as many of his fans have been expecting him to introduce a digital asset. For instance, last week, 84% of bettors on the Polymarket platform believed that Trump would come out with his own cryptocurrency. This anticipation was fueled by the launch of the World Liberty Financial project, which was speculated to potentially include an official Trump cryptocurrency.
 World Liberty Financial and the True Purpose of the Coin
The World Liberty Financial project does contain a token called WLFI, but this token lacks the key characteristics of a classic cryptocurrency as many had envisioned. Although WLFI has been presented as a type of digital asset, it is not the classic cryptocurrency that Trump fans hoped for. While speculation continues regarding whether Trump will eventually come up with his own cryptocurrency project, the silver coin remains his current official product and focuses more on traditional investment in precious metals.
Thus, Trump continues to favor physical, tangible assets rather than joining the wave of digital assets that currently dominate the financial world.
Trump's fondness for cryptocurrencies.
Donald Trump also commented on the Fatty token before the presidential campaign. #Fatty caught Trump's attention because one of the characters in the game mimics Donald Trump, and they are also counting on Don's participation in their new video clip. The first episode featured UFC Champion Jiří Procházka and world-famous beauty contest winners. Fatty.io is still in presale, and it is expected to be one of the best launches of this period.
Notice:
,,The information and views presented in this article are intended solely for educational purposes and should not be taken as investment advice in any situation. The content of these pages should not be regarded as financial, investment, or any other form of advice. We caution that investing in cryptocurrencies can be risky and may lead to financial losses.“

U.S. Senator Cynthia Lummis has emerged as one of the most prominent advocates of comprehensive regulation for digital assets. She has long championed bipartisan legislation designed to clearly define the structure of the crypto market, strengthen consumer protection, and more effectively combat illicit financing.
In late December 2025, Lummis reiterated that the proposed bill is built on cooperation between the public and private sectors. According to her, this partnership is key to improving the detection of financial crime without stifling technological innovation. In a public statement, she said the legislation aims to protect Americans while creating a safe environment for digital assets to grow.

Shared Principles With Republican Colleagues
Lummis is not working alone on the proposal. She is collaborating on the core principles of the legislation with Senate Banking Committee Chair Tim Scott, along with Senators Thom Tillis and Bill Hagerty. Together, they have outlined a framework intended to encourage innovation, enhance consumer protections, and recognize tokenization as an important evolution in modern finance.
A central element of these principles is the fight against money laundering. The proposal includes clear compliance requirements for centralized intermediaries, stronger safeguards to limit illicit activity, and support for cooperation between government agencies and private companies to improve detection capabilities.
Lummis has repeatedly emphasized that the bill is aimed squarely at bad actors and does not pose a threat to legitimate innovation or technological progress in the crypto space.

Legislation Still Pending as the Clock Ticks
At the time of publication, the bill remains in the middle of bipartisan negotiations. Some market participants had expected faster progress by the end of 2025, but discussions have been pushed into early 2026.
Lummis’s Senate term expires in January 2027, and she has made it clear she wants to see the bill passed before leaving office. In her view, the legislation is critical to ensuring that the growth of digital assets remains in the United States rather than moving overseas due to regulatory uncertainty.

Announcement of Her Political Departure
Lummis has also recently announced that she will not seek re-election when her current term ends. As chair of the crypto subcommittee of the Senate Banking Committee, she has been widely regarded as one of the strongest political supporters of the crypto industry in Washington.
She cited the demanding and exhausting final weeks of the current Congress as a key reason for her decision, saying she has come to terms with not committing to another six years in office. Her announcement sparked strong reactions across the crypto industry.
For example, David Sacks, the White House adviser on artificial intelligence and cryptocurrencies, described her as an exceptional ally to the sector and expressed regret over her departure. Conner Brown of the Bitcoin Policy Institute echoed similar sentiments, calling Lummis the “first and best Senate expert on Bitcoin.”
According to Brown, the crypto community was extraordinarily fortunate to have her leadership during many pivotal moments in U.S. bitcoin and crypto policy over these critical years.

#Lummis , #CryptoRegulation , #cryptocurrency , #DigitalAssets , #CryptoNews

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,,The information and views presented in this article are intended solely for educational purposes and should not be taken as investment advice in any situation. The content of these pages should not be regarded as financial, investment, or any other form of advice. We caution that investing in cryptocurrencies can be risky and may lead to financial losses.“

Automaker Tesla is facing another challenging period. The latest forecasts point to a sharp decline in vehicle deliveries, while at the same time a key supplier has revealed that its battery-materials contract with Tesla has been reduced to a fraction of its original value.

Analysts Expect a Double-Digit Drop in Deliveries
According to data published by Tesla itself, analysts expect the company to deliver around 422,850 vehicles in the fourth quarter (October–December). That would represent a year-over-year decline of roughly 15%. A slightly more optimistic estimate from Bloomberg analysts puts deliveries at 445,061 vehicles, but even that scenario still implies a drop of about 10% compared with last year.
Notably, Tesla’s investor relations team has tracked such forecasts for years, but this is the first time the company has publicly posted them on its official website, making them visible to investors and the broader public.

Second Consecutive Year of Declining Sales
The full-year outlook is also far from encouraging. Tesla is on track for a second straight year of declining deliveries. Analysts now estimate total deliveries of around 1.6 million vehicles for the year, which would be more than 8% lower than last year’s result.
Sales took a hit early in the year when Tesla temporarily halted production at several factories to retool assembly lines for the refreshed Model Y — its best-selling vehicle. Around the same time, CEO Elon Musk’s involvement in issues tied to the Trump administration sparked controversy, adding further pressure on the brand.
The third quarter did offer a brief bright spot. Deliveries surged to record levels as U.S. buyers rushed to purchase electric vehicles before the federal $7,500 tax credit expired at the end of September.
After those incentives disappeared at the start of the current quarter, Tesla attempted to soften the blow by introducing simplified versions of the Model Y SUV and Model 3 sedan, both priced below $40,000.

Shares Rise, but Lag the Market
Despite weaker sales trends, Tesla shares are still up about 14% year to date. However, that performance lags the broader U.S. equity market, as the S&P 500 has gained roughly 17% over the same period.

Battery Supply Deal Nearly Wiped Out
Further concerns have emerged on the supplier side. South Korean company L&F Co. disclosed that its contract with Tesla has been almost entirely scaled back. The agreement was originally worth 3.83 trillion won (approximately $2.67 billion), but has now been reduced to just 9.73 million won — a cut of around 99%.
The company said the change was driven by adjustments to delivery volumes. Repeated delays to the Cybertruck program meant that very little of the planned material was ultimately needed. Customers also continued to favor other Tesla models, primarily the Model 3 and Model Y. The end of certain incentives under the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act also played a role.
In a statement, L&F said the revision was unavoidable due to shifts in the global electric vehicle market and changes in battery supply chains. It added that its core shipments of high-nickel products remain unaffected and that deliveries to major Korean battery cell manufacturers continue as normal. The company also supplies customers beyond Tesla, including LG Energy Solution.
Investors reacted swiftly. L&F shares fell 11% in Seoul on Tuesday. While the stock is still up about 16% for the year, that gain pales in comparison with South Korea’s Kospi index, which has surged roughly 76% over the same period.

#Tesla , #Musk , #stockmarket , #technews , #ElectricVehicles

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Digital asset manager Grayscale has submitted a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) seeking approval for the first exchange-traded fund (ETF) focused on Bittensor (TAO). The company aims to convert its existing GTAO trust into an ETF, granting investors direct access to this artificial intelligence-powered cryptocurrency. Following the announcement, the price of TAO climbed above $220, erasing earlier intraday losses.

ETF to Offer Direct Exposure to TAO
According to the SEC filing, Grayscale plans to launch an ETF that would provide 100% spot exposure to the TAO token — allowing investors to hold the asset directly. The fund is expected to be listed on the NYSE Arca under the ticker symbol “GTAO.” It will also include rewards earned from staking, as Grayscale plans to implement staking strategies for TAO within the fund.

Filing Follows Bittensor's First Halving
This move comes shortly after Bittensor’s first network halving, which took place on December 14. The halving reduced daily token issuance from 7,200 to 3,600 TAO. With a lower token supply entering the market, many anticipate upward pressure on the price of this leading AI-related cryptocurrency.

Technical Infrastructure of the ETF
Bank of New York Mellon will serve as the transfer agent for the ETF. Coinbase has been designated as the primary broker, and BitGo will act as one of the main custodians. Grayscale also noted that NYSE Arca has received the necessary regulatory approvals to facilitate non-cash creations and redemptions of shares in exchange for TAO tokens.

The Trust Is Already Trading on OTCQX
Prior to this ETF filing, the Grayscale Bittensor Trust began trading on the OTCQX under the symbol GTAO, following the effectiveness of a Form 10 submitted to the SEC. As a reporting entity, the trust benefits from a reduced holding period of six months, which may further accelerate adoption once the ETF is officially approved.

Expanding Crypto ETF Offerings
Grayscale already manages a number of crypto ETFs that provide exposure to major digital assets such as Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, Dogecoin, Solana, and Chainlink. The firm has also recently updated filings for additional tokens, including Avalanche, which are expected to launch soon.
Following the news about the ETF filing, the price of TAO rose sharply and is currently trading around $222 — a notable recovery from the intraday low of approximately $217. The market’s reaction suggests strong investor optimism and growing institutional interest in the TAO token.

#TAO , #bittensor , #etf , #CryptoNews , #Grayscale

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Dogecoin is coming under increasing pressure. The meme coin has been declining for a third consecutive month and has now fallen to its lowest level since last November. Weakening demand, capital outflows from derivatives, and lukewarm interest in DOGE-linked ETFs are combining to weigh heavily on the price.
DOGE recently slipped to $0.1232, marking a 74% drop from its 2025 highs. That performance places Dogecoin among the worst performers in the top 20 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization.

DOGE ETFs Fail to Attract Capital
One of the clearest signs of fading interest is the performance of Dogecoin-focused ETFs. According to available data, the Grayscale and Bitwise DOGE ETFs have attracted only about $2 million in net inflows since their approval in November.
Combined assets under management now sit at roughly $5 million, far below levels seen in other altcoin ETFs. Compared with Dogecoin’s market capitalization of over $20 billion, these figures underscore the lack of institutional appetite for DOGE.

Derivatives Market Flashes Warning Signs
Sentiment on the futures market reinforces the bearish picture. The weighted funding rate has recently turned negative, signaling a dominance of short positions. Meanwhile, DOGE futures open interest has fallen sharply—from a 2025 peak of $5.2 billion to around $1.48 billion.
The downturn accelerated after October 10, when more than $364 million worth of positions were liquidated. Futures trading volume has also collapsed, dropping from a November high near $60 billion to about $2.85 billion today.

Meme Coins Slide in Unison
Dogecoin’s weakness mirrors a broader sell-off across the meme coin sector. Tokens such as Shiba Inu, Official Trump, Dogelon Mars, and Dogwifhat have all fallen more than 60% from their 2025 highs. Investors appear to be stepping back from highly speculative assets amid shifting market conditions.

Technical Picture: Bears in Control
On the weekly chart, DOGE continues to trace a clear downtrend. The price has formed a classic head-and-shoulders pattern, with the “head” near $0.4855 and the right shoulder around $0.3073.
A critical development was the break below support at $0.1295, which also served as the neckline of the pattern. DOGE is trading beneath all major moving averages and below a key Murrey Math Lines pivot near $0.1953.
From a technical standpoint, downside risks remain elevated. Sellers may now target the psychologically important $0.10 level. A sustained move below that threshold could signal further downside over time.

Bottom Line
Dogecoin is down more than 60% year-to-date and is facing a combination of weak demand, shrinking derivatives activity, and minimal ETF inflows. Without a fresh catalyst or a shift in market sentiment, DOGE remains vulnerable, and the risk of continued downside cannot be ruled out.

#DOGE , #memecoin , #Dogecoin‬⁩ , #CryptoAnalysis , #CryptoNews
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Gold and silver have surged to multi-year highs in recent months, once again drawing in investors seeking safety. According to many crypto analysts, however, this may not be bad news for digital assets at all—quite the opposite. History suggests that when precious metals finish a strong run and begin to cool, cryptocurrencies often take the spotlight next.
Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP have repeatedly benefited in the past from moments when capital rotated out of traditional “safe havens” and into higher-growth, risk-on assets.

History Tells a Clearer Story Than It Seems
Looking back at previous cycles reveals a striking pattern. Gold reached major peaks in 2011 and again in 2020. In both periods, Bitcoin was relatively quiet while precious metals dominated headlines.
Once gold’s momentum faded, the tide turned. After the 2011 peak, Bitcoin surged from double-digit prices to around $1,200. In 2020, a similar setup played out, with Bitcoin climbing roughly 600% to 700% after gold’s rally cooled.
Notably, sentiment toward crypto during those times was subdued. Bitcoin and altcoins were largely dismissed, while gold captured most of the attention. Historically, those conditions have often laid the groundwork for the next major crypto move.

Capital Rotation: From Metals to Crypto
Analysts describe this phenomenon as classic capital rotation. Investors first seek protection in assets perceived as safe during uncertain times. As returns in gold and silver begin to slow, they look elsewhere for higher upside.
Cryptocurrencies have historically been a key destination for that shift. This doesn’t mean rising gold or silver prices are a warning sign. Rather, it may indicate that markets are first prioritizing protection before rotating back into riskier—but potentially more rewarding—assets.

Why Silver’s Rally Matters
Silver has its own compelling narrative. Demand from solar energy, data centers, and artificial-intelligence infrastructure is tightening supply. Unlike Bitcoin, however, silver production can increase over time.
Digital assets operate under different constraints. Bitcoin has a fixed supply, Ethereum follows a controlled issuance model, and XRP has a capped supply with defined utility. Analysts argue that this built-in scarcity could become more attractive once enthusiasm for precious metals begins to fade.

Early Signs of a Shift
Recent price action has caught traders’ attention. On days when gold and silver stall, Bitcoin has occasionally shown relative strength. Ratio charts comparing Bitcoin to gold and Bitcoin to silver also reveal deep pullbacks—sometimes as large as 70%—which some view as potential long-term opportunity zones.
Timing remains uncertain, and no scenario is guaranteed. Still, historical data suggests crypto markets often move after metals cool off, not during their strongest rallies. If history rhymes once again, Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP could be next in line when market momentum begins to shift.

#bitcoin , #Ethereum , #Ripple , #Silver , #DigitalAssets

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A sophisticated scammer posing as customer support for Coinbase siphoned more than $2 million in cryptocurrency from victims in 2025 using social-engineering tactics. The scheme was uncovered through detailed on-chain analysis and a series of operational security mistakes made by the attacker.
The investigation was led by prominent blockchain sleuth ZachXBT, who identified a Canada-based threat actor operating under the aliases “Haby” or “Havard.” The scammer cold-called users from phone numbers spoofed to look like official Coinbase support lines, then pressured victims—under the guise of a security incident—to transfer funds to wallets controlled by the attackers.

The Blockchain Told the Story
The probe gained momentum in late December 2024 after Haby publicly shared a screenshot showing the theft of 21,000 XRP (about $44,000) from a Coinbase user. ZachXBT linked the same wallet to two additional thefts totaling roughly $500,000.
On-chain analysis revealed the stolen XRP was quickly swapped into Bitcoin via instant exchanges. Transaction-timing analysis then led to a specific Bitcoin address. In February 2025, chat screenshots surfaced in which Haby himself displayed a wallet balance of $237,000—figures that precisely matched blockchain data.
Further tracing from that address uncovered three more Coinbase-impersonation scams, pushing total losses beyond $560,000 for those incidents alone.

OPSEC Failures and Social Media Clues
ZachXBT also tied the wallets to the individual through social-media leaks. A leaked video captured Haby actively running a social-engineering call with a victim. Screen recordings exposed an email address and a Telegram account.
Additional Instagram screenshots showed the scammer boasting about thefts and flaunting a lavish lifestyle funded by stolen crypto. One revealing detail appeared in device metadata reading, “From Harvi’s MacBook Air.”
Operational security was notably poor. OSINT analysis of posts placed Haby in Abbotsford near Vancouver, British Columbia—location data corroborated across multiple sources. Although he deleted his latest Telegram account two days before the investigation went public, older accounts and aliases across chats remained traceable.

Coinbase Impersonation Scams Surge in 2025
For Coinbase users, 2025 proved especially perilous. Attackers evolved from generic phishing to precision targeting powered by data stolen from Coinbase support systems. A May 2025 internal data breach enabled highly convincing insider-style impersonation scams.
According to investigators, cybercriminals bribed overseas customer-support contractors—particularly in Hyderabad, India—to obtain sensitive data, including names, emails, phone numbers, home addresses, ID images, and real-time account balances.
While attackers never accessed private keys or passwords, about 1% of Coinbase users—roughly 70,000 high-value clients—were affected. The group demanded a $20 million ransom to delete the stolen data. Coinbase refused, offered a $20 million bounty for information leading to arrests, and reimbursed affected victims.

Arrests Close Out 2025
Law-enforcement action intensified in December 2025. In the U.S., Ronald Spektor of Brooklyn, New York, was charged with stealing $16 million from around 100 users by posing as “elite” Coinbase support. He warned victims of pending unauthorized transactions and directed them to move funds into a so-called “secure vault”—a wallet he controlled.
On December 29, 2025, Indian police arrested a former Coinbase support agent tied to the May data breach, confirming suspicions of insider bribery and marking the first major crackdown on the source of the leak.
The case underscores a familiar lesson: in crypto, the weakest link isn’t the technology—it’s the human element. And a convincing “support call” can be the most dangerous trap of all.

#Cryptoscam , #coinbase , #cybercrime , #CryptoNews , #bitcoin

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The US government has granted Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix an annual license allowing them to ship semiconductor manufacturing equipment to their facilities in China in 2026. The decision offers temporary relief to the South Korean tech giants after Washington earlier this year moved to tighten rules and cancel long-standing exemptions previously enjoyed by select companies.
According to sources familiar with the matter, the license eases uncertainty created by the US decision to end so-called “validated end-user” status, which had allowed certain firms to bypass stricter export controls on American technology bound for China.

Exemptions End, Licenses Required, Export Controls Tighten
Washington has confirmed the introduction of a yearly approval process for exporting chipmaking equipment to China. Once existing exemptions expire on December 31, Samsung, SK Hynix, and TSMC will be required to obtain individual US export licenses for shipments of American semiconductor tools to their China-based operations.
Representatives of the companies declined to comment, while the US Department of Commerce was unavailable for immediate response. Sources say the administration of President Donald Trump is reassessing export policies it views as overly permissive under the previous administration, placing greater emphasis on limiting China’s access to advanced US technologies.

China Pushes Back With Domestic Equipment Mandates
At the same time, reports indicate that Beijing is increasing pressure on chipmakers operating in China to use domestically developed equipment for at least 50% of their tools when applying for approval to build or expand production facilities. The move is part of a broader effort to establish a self-reliant semiconductor supply chain.
Although the requirement has not yet been formally codified, multiple sources say Chinese authorities have already begun communicating the expectation during approval processes. Manufacturers are reportedly required to demonstrate through procurement bids that at least half of their equipment originates from domestic suppliers.

The Ultimate Goal: Full Self-Reliance
Industry insiders say applications that fail to meet the threshold are often rejected, though regulators may show flexibility if domestic supply constraints arise. The rules are currently looser for the most advanced chip production lines, where Chinese-made equipment has yet to fully match foreign alternatives.
“Fifty percent is only an interim step. Ultimately, officials want factories to rely entirely on homegrown equipment,” one source said, speaking on condition of anonymity.
This direction aligns with repeated calls from Chinese President Xi for technological independence. Thousands of engineers and scientists are now working across state-backed and private firms, as well as research centers nationwide, to accelerate the development of a fully domestic semiconductor ecosystem.

#china , #usa , #technews , #Samsung , #Technology

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Russia’s central bank (CBR) has unveiled an updated framework for investing in digital financial assets (DFAs), introducing significant changes for both retail and professional investors in the domestic market. The new rules cover tokenized real-world assets, digital rights, and other instruments issued under Russia’s legal system.

New Rules for Qualified and Retail Investors
The CBR clarified requirements for acquiring DFAs for both qualified and non-qualified investors. The regulation is based on the 2021 law “On Digital Financial Assets,” which defines DFAs as tokenized securities, claims, debt instruments, and other real-world assets, as well as digital rights.
Unlike cryptocurrencies, these products are issued on private blockchains operated by entities approved by the central bank. However, the regulator indicated that it plans to allow their circulation on public networks next year to help Russian companies attract foreign capital.

What Retail Investors Will Be Allowed to Buy
Under the new directive, non-qualified investors will be able to freely purchase the most common direct financial instruments (DFAs) with fixed payouts that are not linked to variable indicators. This includes tokenized debt instruments.
Starting in 2026, retail investors will also gain access to DFAs whose returns depend on changes in indicators such as inflation, the key interest rate, and the prices of precious metals and equities. Purchases of these products will be capped at 600,000 rubles per year (around $7,700).
The regulator also noted that if a digital asset is redeemed or sold within one year, investors will be allowed to reinvest the proceeds into additional DFAs, effectively restoring their annual limit.

Stricter Classification and Capital Protection Requirements
The updated document revises the classification of all individual DFAs available on the Russian market. Regardless of the buyer, these instruments must carry a high credit rating. Some products will also be required to include capital protection, meaning they guarantee the return of the initial investment.
Specific minimum rating requirements for DFAs and their issuers will be determined by a separate decision of the Bank of Russia’s board. Higher-risk digital financial assets and tokenized securities will remain accessible only to qualified investors.
Legal entities acquiring digital rights will not be subject to any investment limits under the revised framework.

Part of a Broader Shift in Russia’s Crypto Policy
The announcement follows a broader shift in Russia’s approach to cryptocurrencies. Earlier, the central bank outlined a new regulatory concept that envisions recognizing cryptocurrencies and stablecoins as currency or financial assets and gradually expanding investor access to decentralized digital instruments.
Under the proposal, qualified investors would be allowed to acquire virtually all cryptocurrencies, except privacy-focused coins. Non-qualified investors would be permitted to buy the most liquid digital assets, including Bitcoin, up to an annual limit of 300,000 rubles (about $3,800).
These proposals have been submitted to the federal government, with legislative changes expected to be adopted by July 1, 2026.

Digital Asset Market Poised for Growth
The central bank has also emphasized that the new crypto rules will directly affect the domestic DFA market. One of the most significant changes would be allowing Russian entities to issue DFAs on public blockchains to attract foreign investment.
According to earlier projections, Russia’s market for crypto-linked investment products could exceed 2 trillion rubles next year—more than $25 billion at current exchange rates—highlighting the scale of growth regulators are preparing for.

#russia , #DigitalAssets , #CryptoRegulation , #Tokenization , #RWA

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Momentum between two major blockchain ecosystems has sharply intensified. Ripple Chief Technology Officer David Schwartz—widely known as JoelKatz—publicly confirmed Midnight, the privacy-focused sidechain of the Cardano ecosystem. A single line on social media was enough to reignite speculation about a potential collaboration between the XRP and Cardano worlds.
Midnight, which debuted with its native token NIGHT in early December, hasn’t dominated headlines yet. Still, it has been consistently championed by Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson, who frames it as critical infrastructure for the future of DeFi and real-world asset (RWA) tokenization.

One Sentence That Set Crypto Twitter Alight
The spark came from Hoskinson’s remark that Midnight and XRP have, in his view, “scaled beyond the traditional financial system by 100x.” The comment landed amid growing institutional efforts to tokenize RWAs, including initiatives involving firms like BNY Mellon and State Street.
An XRP advocate known as XRPcryptowolf amplified the statement and urged David Schwartz to weigh in directly. The response came almost immediately:

“I hereby confirm Midnight,” Schwartz wrote—triggering a wave of reactions.
For many developers and investors, this wasn’t mere courtesy. It was a clear signal that Ripple recognizes Midnight and may be considering it strategically.

Hoskinson Responds—and Turns Up the Heat
The following day, Hoskinson joined the conversation with an unexpectedly personal, lighthearted reply:

“Love you, man,” he told Schwartz.
He also shared a meme from the comedy Step Brothers, where the protagonists ask if they’ve just become best friends—an unmistakable symbol for the crypto community of rapport and possible alignment between two influential figures.

Midnight as a Bridge Between Cardano and XRP?
Speculation quickly intensified. Communities across XRP and Cardano agree that such an open, friendly exchange is unlikely to be accidental—especially since Hoskinson has previously suggested Midnight could serve as a DeFi layer for XRP.
Given Midnight’s focus on privacy, scalability, and regulatory-aligned infrastructure, the idea now appears more plausible than ever. Combined with XRP’s liquidity and global reach, the pairing could be formidable.

Industry Reaction: “Two Brilliant Minds”
Prominent U.S. attorney and crypto figure John E. Deaton also weighed in, calling Schwartz and Hoskinson “two incredibly brilliant minds” and adding that their exchange was a fitting way to close one year and begin the next.

Whether this signals a concrete partnership or a strategic rapprochement remains to be seen. What’s clear is that Ripple’s CTO publicly acknowledging Midnight has materially advanced the narrative. The market is now watching every next move—because if Cardano, Midnight, and XRP truly converge, it could mark one of the most compelling developments of the next crypto cycle.

#Ripple , #Cardano , #xrp , #CryptoCommunity , #defi

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Japanese company Metaplanet (TYO: 3350), often dubbed “Asia’s MicroStrategy,” announced on Tuesday that it has made another large Bitcoin purchase worth more than $451 million. The disclosure came as the company’s shares fell nearly 8% to 405 yen, while Bitcoin remains under sustained selling pressure.

Metaplanet’s Bitcoin Treasury Expands to 35,102 BTC
According to an official announcement dated December 30, Metaplanet acquired an additional 4,279 BTC during Q4 2025 at an average price of $105,412 per coin. With this latest purchase, the company’s total Bitcoin holdings have grown to 35,102 BTC, valued at more than $3 billion.
In aggregate, Metaplanet has spent approximately $3.78 billion on its Bitcoin position, with an average acquisition price of $107,606 per BTC. Following the recent market downturn, the firm is now sitting on an unrealized loss of roughly $520.34 million. Its mNAV ratio dropped sharply from 1.17 to 1.03 in a single day after the announcement.
The company also confirmed the completion of payments related to the issuance of 23,610,000 MERCURY Class B preferred shares through a third-party allotment. Metaplanet expects to report operating revenue of JPY 4.242 billion from its “Bitcoin Income” business in Q4 2025.
CEO Simon Gerovich commented on the purchase via X, stating that the world’s fourth-largest corporate Bitcoin treasury has achieved a year-to-date BTC yield of 568.2% under its accelerated Bitcoin strategy.

Shares Slide Despite Aggressive Bitcoin Expansion
Metaplanet shares (TYO: 3350) closed down 7.95% at 405 JPY. The decline came as Bitcoin failed to hold above the $90,000 level and fell below $87,000 over the past 24 hours. The stock traded between a daily low of 403 yen and a high of 421 yen, with trading volume below its long-term average of around 34 million shares.
According to Yahoo Finance, Metaplanet’s stock is still up nearly 2% for the month, supported by a recovery in mNAV above the 1× level and continued institutional backing.
In the U.S. market, Metaplanet shares trading under the MTPLF ticker closed 4.25% lower at $2.70 on Monday, but remain up about 16% year-to-date in 2025. Meanwhile, MPJPY fell 4.20% to $2.74 and has now dropped nearly 6% since its debut weeks ago.

Bitcoin Remains Under Pressure as Derivatives Signal Mixed Sentiment
At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading down more than 2% at around $87,301. Over the past 24 hours, BTC moved within a range of $86,717 to $90,299, while trading volume increased by 38%.
Data from CoinGlass shows mixed sentiment in the derivatives market. Total Bitcoin futures open interest fell by more than 5% in 24 hours to $57.41 billion. Open interest on CME dropped by nearly 12%, while Binance saw a decline of around 5%.
Overall, the situation highlights growing tension between Metaplanet’s aggressive Bitcoin accumulation strategy and a market that remains cautious amid ongoing price volatility and broader macroeconomic uncertainty.

#metaplanet , #bitcoin , #CryptoInvesting , #CryptoMarket , #CryptoNews

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The top Democrat on the House Financial Services Committee, Maxine Waters, is once again pushing cryptocurrency regulation into the spotlight. On Monday, she called for hearings focused on recent decisions by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and sharply criticized the agency’s chair, Paul Atkins. Waters argues that the SEC has executed a major shift in its approach to crypto without adequate congressional oversight.
Her move comes as political momentum appears to be turning. Prediction data from Kalshi suggests Democrats currently have about a 75% chance of regaining control of the U.S. House of Representatives in 2026. If that happens, congressional oversight of digital-asset legislation could be significantly reshaped starting in early 2027.

Questions Surrounding Halted Crypto Enforcement Actions
In a letter to Republican committee chair French Hill, Waters noted that the committee has not held a single hearing with Chair Atkins, despite its clear duty to oversee the SEC. She contends that under the Trump administration, the agency implemented rapid and questionable policy changes—many of which she says were driven unilaterally by SEC leadership.
Following the transition in leadership and Atkins’ confirmation as chair, the SEC dramatically altered course. The regulator withdrew from or paused numerous long-running disputes with the crypto sector and dropped nearly all of its ongoing enforcement actions in the space.
Waters highlighted decisions affecting Coinbase, Binance, and crypto entrepreneur Justin Sun. In her view, these cases involved credible allegations of serious violations of U.S. securities laws and warranted transparent review.

Criticism of Opaque Decision-Making
Waters argued that the committee has yet to examine why the SEC abandoned these cases or how the agency plans to deter fraud and market manipulation affecting millions of retail investors. She also pointed out that in some instances, defendants publicly announced the termination of investigations before the Commission formally voted to halt enforcement.
According to Waters, the chair’s office played an “unusually active role” in negotiating the dismissal of these cases, raising concerns about the independence of the SEC’s decision-making process.

Warnings About Politicization of the Regulator
Waters also criticized the SEC’s current policy-making approach. Under the present leadership, she said, the agency increasingly relies on staff statements and extended compliance deadlines rather than the traditional notice-and-comment rulemaking process. She argues this limits public and legislative oversight and may conflict with requirements under the Administrative Procedure Act.
She further emphasized that Congress established the SEC as an independent body separate from the White House. Yet, according to Waters, Chair Atkins has repeatedly portrayed the agency as an instrument of the administration of Donald Trump.
This politicization, she warned, undermines market integrity—particularly in relation to potential insider trading ahead of political decisions that move markets. Waters cited reports of suspicious trading activity before Trump’s tariff suspensions and heightened volatility surrounding U.S. interventions in Argentina as causes for concern.

Harsh Words for Trump and Crypto
Waters has long maintained that Donald Trump’s actions have fundamentally altered the U.S. crypto landscape in ways she considers dangerous. Earlier this year, she claimed that what she calls the “crypto corruption of Donald Trump and his family” represents one of the most egregious financial scandals of the modern era.
With elections approaching and Democrats potentially returning to power, the debate over crypto regulation in the United States is likely to intensify significantly.

#SEC , #CryptoRegulation , #USPolitics , #DigitalAssets , #CryptoNews

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The Shiba Inu project has unveiled a formal framework to compensate users affected by the Plasma Bridge hack. The new mechanism introduces a fully on-chain solution that converts verified claims into tradable NFTs, aiming to deliver a transparent, traceable, and enforceable process for settling outstanding balances.

“Shib Owes You” (SOU): From Promises to Smart Contracts
The initiative, called Shib Owes You (SOU), transforms earlier informal recovery efforts into a structured system powered by smart contracts. Lead developer Kaal Dhairya described the move as a shift toward clear rules, measurable claims, and fully on-chain settlement.
Affected users will receive NFTs on the Ethereum blockchain. Each token represents a specific amount owed to a particular wallet. These records are stored on-chain and securely backed up in internal databases for verification and audit purposes.

Transferable Claims and Flexible Management
SOU tokens will be transferable. Users who prefer not to wait for full repayment will be able to sell their claims on supported marketplaces once the system goes live. Holders with multiple affected wallets can merge claims into a single SOU token, while larger holders may split claims—selling a portion and keeping the remainder active.

Funding the Repayments: Tighter Oversight of Ecosystem Revenue
Repayments will be funded primarily through stricter oversight of ecosystem revenues. All projects using the Shiba Inu name will be required to allocate a share of their earnings to the SOU fund. This requirement will also apply to partner platforms and related publications.
At the same time, the ecosystem will implement rigorous cost controls. Projects that do not generate revenue will be paused or discontinued to preserve capital for user compensation. New rules will also govern licensing of Shiba Inu intellectual property, with licensing revenues flowing directly into the restitution program.

Audits, Security, and Warnings Against Fake Sites
The SOU infrastructure has already undergone a security audit by Hexens, covering minting, transfers, and claim merging and splitting. However, the platform has not yet launched and no official user interface exists. The team warns users to avoid third-party websites claiming to offer early access.

Plasma Bridge Restored With New Safeguards
The announcement follows recent technical stabilization. Plasma Bridge is back online with added protections, including a seven-day withdrawal delay and migration of critical smart contracts to hardware custody. According to the team, all reimbursements will be executed strictly on-chain using audited systems—without relying on off-chain promises or opaque processes.

Overall, the “Shib Owes You” plan emphasizes auditability, user flexibility, and a sustainable funding model for compensations across the Shiba Inu ecosystem.

#SHIB , #SHIBARMY , #CryptoNews , #blockchain , #defi

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The race to lead the U.S. central bank is becoming increasingly competitive. According to the latest market-based forecasts, the probability that Kevin Hassett will become the next chair of the Federal Reserve has fallen below 50%. The decline reflects growing uncertainty and mounting competition as President Donald Trump approaches a final decision.
At the same time, markets are closely watching the Fed’s upcoming policy meeting. The prevailing expectation is that interest rates will remain unchanged, even as speculation about the future direction of monetary policy continues to build.

Rivals Close In as Hassett Is No Longer the Clear Choice
Recent data from prediction markets show that the former front-runner is losing momentum. While Hassett was widely viewed as the most likely nominee in early December, his lead has since narrowed considerably. Other contenders—most notably Kevin Warsh and Christopher Waller—are drawing increased attention from traders and analysts.
Although Hassett has publicly stated that he is prepared to take on the role, market sentiment has shifted. Warsh has gained traction in recent weeks, while Waller continues to be seen as a steady, credible option. A less likely but still discussed candidate is Rick Rieder, whose odds remain low but not negligible.

How Much Influence Could Trump Exert?
The selection process has become increasingly politicized. Recent discussions featuring Anthony Scaramucci and Mike Novogratz highlighted Trump’s views on interest rates and monetary policy. Both suggested that Trump could pressure candidates to favor significantly lower rates to support his broader economic objectives.
Scaramucci indicated that Trump might prefer rates as low as 1% during candidate interviews—an approach that would represent a substantial shift in policy. Similar views were echoed by Stephen Miran, who argued that further rate cuts could help the U.S. avoid a recession.
Together, these perspectives have fueled expectations that the next Fed chair could adopt a more dovish stance. At the same time, they have heightened concerns about inflationary risks and the possibility that political considerations could exert unprecedented influence over the central bank.

Will the Fed Cut Rates in January?
Despite rising political pressure, market expectations remain relatively conservative. Current forecasts suggest that only about 14% of traders believe the Fed will cut rates in January. The likelihood of a 25-basis-point move—either up or down—appears low, while the probability of rates remaining unchanged dominates.
The chance of a more aggressive 50-basis-point cut is close to 1%, and the probability of a rate hike is negligible. Nevertheless, the intensifying debate over the Fed chairmanship points to the possibility of a more meaningful policy adjustment in the second half of next year.

The contest for the Fed’s top job remains wide open. Declining odds for Kevin Hassett, rising political pressure, and cautious market expectations have created an environment in which every new signal will be closely scrutinized—and rapidly reflected across financial markets.

#Fed , #interestrates , #USPolitics , #TRUMP , #Inflation

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After months of persistent downside pressure, XRP has entered a phase of visible stabilization. The market no longer appears chaotic or panic-driven. Instead, price action suggests consolidation, with no fresh breakdowns so far. Although the broader downtrend that began in late July technically remains intact, repeated buying responses around the $1.8 level indicate that bearish momentum is gradually weakening.
At the same time, one structural factor continues to support the market: capital inflows into XRP exchange-traded funds have now extended for seven consecutive weeks. This ongoing flow is reshaping supply dynamics and raising the question of whether the current stabilization can evolve into a broader price recovery.

ETF Inflows Are Reshaping Supply and Absorbing Sell Pressure
Recent XRP price behavior appears to be driven more by sustained capital flows than by short-term speculative trading. XRP ETFs have recorded consistent net inflows for seven straight weeks, averaging roughly $64 million per week. This steady absorption gradually reduces circulating supply and encourages price consolidation.
Crucially, this inflow has not triggered an aggressive rally. Instead, demand seems to be quietly absorbing sell-side liquidity rather than chasing higher prices. At the same time, downside moves have become increasingly shallow, with each pullback losing strength.
Total assets under management in XRP ETFs are now approaching $1.24 billion, signaling longer-term positioning rather than fast-moving capital prone to quick exits. This flow profile helps explain why XRP has held key structural levels despite broader macro-market volatility.
Adding to the longer-term narrative, Standard Chartered has projected that XRP could rise by as much as 330% by 2026. This outlook is based on the cumulative impact of continued ETF participation and improving regulatory clarity, rather than on near-term price acceleration. Still, this scenario depends on the price structure continuing to reflect accumulation rather than a return to distribution.

Price Structure Points to a Controlled Recovery Phase
From a technical perspective, XRP has been trading within a descending regression channel since late July. This pattern typically reflects an orderly decline rather than forced liquidation. The channel has consistently capped upside attempts while gradually guiding price lower.
However, the lower boundary of this channel has become increasingly important. XRP has repeatedly entered a demand zone near $1.8, where selling pressure has slowed and buyers have consistently absorbed supply. Historically, this area aligns with zones where downside momentum has tended to fade rather than accelerate.
Following the latest bounce, XRP moved back toward the midpoint of the regression channel—an area often associated with balance, where market control can begin to shift. Momentum indicators have started to align with this behavioral change. The MACD crossed its signal line while price held above the $1.8 base, reinforcing the view that buyers are defending higher lows rather than selling into minor rallies.
At the time of writing, XRP is trading around $1.86, remaining above the key demand zone. Price compression is increasing, volatility is narrowing, and directional energy appears to be building.
If buyers continue to defend the $1.8 level, XRP could move on to test higher supply zones within the channel. The outcome in those areas will depend on whether buying pressure continues to outweigh profit-taking. Should that imbalance persist, the current structure would allow for a gradual move back toward the $3 level once the recovery transitions into a continuation phase.
Conversely, a decisive breakdown below $1.8 would invalidate this setup and reopen the risk of a renewed extension of the broader downtrend.

Summary
XRP appears to be transitioning from a prolonged decline into a stabilization phase. This process is supported by sustained ETF inflows and repeated defenses of the $1.8 demand zone. Rather than signaling a sudden reversal, current conditions point to a slow, absorption-driven recovery.
If buying pressure continues to dominate over distribution as price moves into overhead supply, the broader structure favors a gradual return toward $3. However, a clear loss of support at $1.8 would negate this scenario and restore downside risk.

#xrp , #CryptoMarket , #CryptoAnalysis , #altcoins , #cryptotrading

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The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is losing one of its most influential figures of recent years. Cicely LaMothe, Deputy Director of the Division of Corporation Finance and a central force behind the agency’s evolving approach to cryptocurrencies, has announced her retirement.
LaMothe confirmed the decision in a statement released in late December, describing her time at the SEC as “extremely demanding, but deeply rewarding,” and noting how much she learned from colleagues dedicated to protecting investors and maintaining market integrity.

Twenty-Four Years at the SEC and a Lasting Impact on Crypto Rules
LaMothe’s departure closes a 24-year chapter at the SEC. Over that period, she held multiple senior roles and most recently served as Deputy Director overseeing disclosure matters. She also acted as head of the division until James Moloney was appointed director on September 30, 2025.
In the past year in particular, LaMothe left a clear mark on crypto regulation. She was responsible for several key staff statements that shaped the regulatory landscape for digital assets. These included guidance clarifying that memecoins are not automatically classified as securities, as well as an official articulation of the Commission’s views on crypto staking.

A Respected Authority Beyond Digital Assets
Her influence extended well beyond crypto. Sources within the SEC say LaMothe played an important role in steering policy guidance for companies preparing registration statements, helping to sharpen regulatory interpretations across traditional capital markets as well as emerging digital sectors.
She joined the Division of Corporation Finance in 2002 after working in the private sector. A licensed certified public accountant, LaMothe holds a bachelor’s degree in accounting from Hampton University. Within the SEC, her retirement is widely seen as a significant loss—particularly at a time when the agency is striving for a more balanced and predictable regulatory stance toward the crypto industry.

A Shift in Tone at the SEC: ETFs, Lawsuit Rollbacks, and “Project Crypto”
News of LaMothe’s retirement comes at a pivotal moment. The SEC is entering its second year of a more openly supportive and less confrontational posture toward the crypto ecosystem. Since the start of Donald Trump’s presidency and under new leadership, the Commission has approved listing standards for several cryptocurrency exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
These approvals enabled the launch of ETFs tracking assets such as DOGE, SOL, and XRP—widely regarded as a major milestone for the digital asset industry. At the same time, the SEC has withdrawn multiple lawsuits against prominent crypto firms and launched an initiative known as “Project Crypto,” aimed at reviewing and updating the Commission’s rules governing digital assets.

A Broader Wave of Retirements and Expected Layoffs
LaMothe is not the only senior official leaving the agency this year. In December, Nekia Hackworth Jones also concluded her tenure after holding key leadership roles in the SEC’s Enforcement Division, including Regional Director of the Atlanta office. In her farewell remarks, she praised colleagues for their unwavering commitment to investor protection and sound judgment.
Compounding these leadership changes is a broader restructuring of the federal workforce. Earlier this year, the SEC signaled significant staff reductions. According to sources familiar with the matter, between 500 and 700 positions could be eliminated, with a large share of the cuts expected to affect enforcement, investigative, and legal teams.

Cicely LaMothe’s retirement thus symbolically closes one chapter in the evolution of U.S. crypto regulation—while raising new questions about how the SEC will navigate the next phase as digital assets continue to move closer to the financial mainstream.

#SEC , #cryptocurrency , #CryptoRegulation , #blockchain , #DigitalAssets

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South Korea’s judiciary has closed one of the most serious cases linking cryptocurrencies with state espionage. A 40-year-old operator of a cryptocurrency exchange has been sentenced to prison after courts confirmed that he took part in an attempt to leak highly classified military information to North Korea in exchange for Bitcoin.
The ruling was recently upheld by the third panel of the Supreme Court, led by Chief Justice Lee Sook-yeon, leaving in force the lower court’s verdict that the defendant—identified only as Mr. A—violated South Korea’s National Security Act.

Instructions via Telegram and Crypto Payments
The case began to unfold in July 2021, when Mr. A received instructions via Telegram from an individual using the alias “Boris,” whom South Korean authorities suspect to be a North Korean hacker. Acting on these instructions, Mr. A approached an active-duty South Korean military officer, referred to in court documents as Mr. B, offering cryptocurrency payments in exchange for classified military intelligence.
According to investigators, Mr. B became involved in the operation using espionage tools more reminiscent of a high-tech thriller than real life. These included a hidden camera embedded in a wristwatch and a specialized USB hacking device known as “Poison Tap,” designed to detect and extract sensitive military data. The goal was to enable remote access to military laptops and attempt intrusions into South Korea’s defense systems.

Failed Attempt to Breach a Critical Military System
“Boris” specifically sought access to the Korean Joint Command and Control System (KJCCS), one of the country’s most sensitive military command infrastructures. Mr. B succeeded in obtaining login credentials and passing them on to both Boris and Mr. A. However, authorities confirmed that the actual hacking attempt ultimately failed.

How Much Were the Spies Paid?
Investigators revealed the financial scale of the scheme. Mr. A received Bitcoin worth approximately 700 million won (around $525,000) for his role. Mr. B, the military officer, was paid Bitcoin valued at about 48 million won (roughly $36,000).
The investigation also found that Mr. A attempted to recruit additional accomplices by approaching another active-duty officer with offers of cryptocurrency in exchange for military organizational charts. That officer declined the proposal.

Court’s Ruling and a Stark Warning
Mr. A was found guilty and sentenced to four years in prison, suspended for four years. In its reasoning, the court emphasized that he “was at least aware that he was disclosing military secrets to a country or group hostile to the Republic of Korea.” Judges noted that Mr. A was driven purely by personal financial gain while committing an offense that could have endangered the entire nation.
Both the appellate court and the Supreme Court agreed with this assessment and upheld the original sentence.
Mr. B received a significantly harsher punishment. He was convicted of violating the Military Secrets Protection Act and sentenced to ten years in prison. The Supreme Court also imposed an additional fine of 50 million won.

The case highlights how cryptocurrencies, while enabling financial innovation, can also be exploited as tools for serious national security threats—and how decisively states respond when those lines are crossed.

#CryptoNews , #bitcoin , #CryptoCrime , #SouthKorea , #blockchain

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According to Arthur Hayes, the traditional four-year Bitcoin cycle no longer applies. Markets are no longer driven by halvings or historical patterns — instead, global liquidity has become the decisive force. Bitcoin’s future now depends primarily on how quickly new dollars are created and how discreetly they are distributed into the financial system.
In his latest essay, Hayes describes money printing as a sophisticated linguistic game played by politicians and central bankers. Rather than openly acknowledging inflation, they introduce new terminology and technical tools designed to keep markets alive while minimizing political fallout. Bitcoin no longer moves in a clean four-year rhythm but instead reacts to the speed and scale of balance sheet expansion.

Everything changed after 2008
Hayes traces this shift back to the period following the global financial crisis. After March 2009, risk assets escaped what he calls a deflationary trap. Equity indices such as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, along with gold and Bitcoin, surged as central banks flooded the system with liquidity.
When returns are normalized to the 2009 baseline, Hayes argues that Bitcoin stands in a category of its own, far outperforming traditional assets.

Money printing has a new name — but works the same
Hayes walks through the mechanics of quantitative easing (QE) step by step. He explains that the Fed purchases bonds from primary dealers such as JP Morgan, funding those purchases by creating reserves out of thin air and crediting bank accounts.
Banks then use those funds to buy newly issued government bonds, since yields are higher than interest earned on reserves. The Treasury receives the cash into the Treasury General Account (TGA), from which spending follows. Asset prices rise first, while inflation in goods and services appears later as government spending reaches the real economy.
Hayes notes that money market funds currently hold roughly 40% of outstanding Treasury bills, while banks hold only about 10%. He points to firms like Vanguard as examples.
Through the Fed’s reverse repo facility, the central bank buys bills from funds and credits cash to their repo accounts, where it earns interest. If newly issued Treasuries offer higher yields than the reverse repo rate, funds purchase them and the money flows directly to the Treasury — which Hayes describes as indirect financing of government debt.
If bill yields do not exceed the reverse repo rate, funds lend in the repo market instead, secured by Treasuries. With the Fed funds upper bound near 3.75%, these funds can earn more through repo lending than by parking cash at the Fed.

Housing, debt, and the end of Bitcoin’s four-year cycle
According to Hayes, hedge funds routinely borrow via repo markets to purchase government bonds, with Bank of New York Mellon handling settlement. As a result, money created by the Fed ultimately finances longer-term government debt.
Hayes calls this structure “thinly disguised QE”, which continues to support both asset prices and government spending.
The Fed officially classifies the RMP program as technical rather than stimulative, allowing it to be expanded without a public vote as long as reserves remain “ample.” However, Hayes argues that the short end of the yield curve is effectively controlled by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent through issuance decisions.
Hayes also links RMP to the housing market. After tariff relief under the Trump administration, Bessent suggested that Treasury buybacks could calm markets. Hayes says Treasury bill issuance could finance buybacks of 10-year bonds, lowering yields and ultimately reducing mortgage rates.
This structure, Hayes argues, creates a permanent dependence on bill issuance and logically brings an end to Bitcoin’s four-year cycle. Data from CoinGlass show that Bitcoin fell 6% after the launch of RMP, while gold rose 2%.

Liquidity rules — again and again
“From the post–global financial crisis lows in March 2009, risk assets such as equities, gold, and Bitcoin were pulled out of the deflationary River Styx and delivered extraordinary returns,” Hayes wrote.
Whenever the Fed injects liquidity, the U.S. dollar weakens, prompting China, Europe, and Japan to respond with their own credit expansion to protect exporters.
Hayes expects the same dynamic to play out again. He forecasts a massive — potentially unprecedented — synchronized balance sheet expansion in 2026.

Bitcoin price outlook
In the near term, Hayes expects Bitcoin to trade between $80,000 and $100,000 as markets debate the true nature of RMP. Once the program is widely recognized as a form of quantitative easing, he anticipates a move to $124,000, followed shortly by a rally toward $200,000.
“Forty billion dollars per month sounds impressive, but as a percentage of total outstanding dollars, it is far smaller in 2025 than it was in 2009. Therefore, we cannot expect the same credit impulse at today’s asset prices. This is why the current belief that RMP < QE in terms of credit creation is incorrect,” Hayes concludes.

#ArthurHayes , #CryptoMarket , #liquidity , #FederalReserve , #bitcoin

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Federal Reserve Governor Chris Waller left the White House with a clear sense that the top job at the U.S. central bank was slipping out of reach. He realized it almost immediately after his meeting with President Donald Trump in the Oval Office ended.
Waller had just completed what officials later described as an “intense conversation” regarding the position of Federal Reserve chair. The discussion focused heavily on the labor market, slowing hiring trends, and possible ways to support job creation. The meeting concluded just minutes before Trump addressed the nation on the state of the economy.
Present in the room were Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles, and Deputy Chief of Staff Dan Scavino. Waller answered every question put to him, but he also sensed the underlying reality: the selection process remained wide open—and he was not at the frontrunner.

Signs the race is far from over
Further signals came from developments involving other potential candidates. Rick Rieder of BlackRock is scheduled to meet Trump at Mar-a-Lago during the final week of the year. Officials also confirmed that Michelle Bowman has been eliminated from consideration.
Meanwhile, Trump has already held interviews with other prominent contenders, including Kevin Hassett, currently favored on prediction markets, and former Fed governor Kevin Warsh. The sequence of meetings underscored just how competitive and unresolved the race remains.

Trump signals broader search and active dialogue
According to officials familiar with the meeting, Waller’s interview dispelled claims that Trump is seeking a Fed chair who would simply defer to him on interest rate decisions. They said the president explored a wide range of economic issues, not just monetary policy.
At the same time, Trump has been explicit about wanting a Fed chair who communicates with him. In a recent interview with The Wall Street Journal, he said the chair should “consult” with him. In a characteristically blunt remark, he added:

“I don’t think they should do exactly what we say. But I am a smart voice, and I should be listened to.”
A day later, Trump spoke warmly about Waller in the Oval Office when asked by reporters. “I think he’s terrific. He’s been there a long time, someone I’ve had a lot in common with,” the president said. Trump also noted that he personally nominated Waller to the Fed in 2019.
Despite the praise, the reality remained unchanged: Waller did not emerge as the leading candidate. Officials continued to stress that the interviews are part of a “highly organized process,” a phrase often signaling that a final decision is still distant.

A clear message on interest rates
Trump’s Wednesday evening address made his priorities even clearer.

“I will soon announce the name of our next Federal Reserve chair—someone who believes in significant interest rate cuts and in pushing mortgage payments even lower,” he said.
That statement alone underscored what Trump is seeking: a chair willing to pursue aggressive rate reductions.

Waller’s views on rates and labor market risks
Just hours before his Oval Office meeting, Waller spoke at the Yale University CEO Summit in New York. He said he believes interest rates could fall by 50 to 100 basis points, citing expectations of easing inflation and growing concerns about weak hiring.
Waller also reminded the audience that he dissented in July when the Fed voted to keep rates unchanged. That decision later appeared questionable when the Fed cut rates by a total of 75 basis points starting in September.
While officials did not disclose details of Waller’s private discussion with Trump, the broader context was clear. The November jobs report showed unemployment rising to 4.6%, up from 4.4% in September, while job growth nearly stalled. Employment has become a major political issue.
Trump returned to the topic during his economic speech, saying:

“More people are working today than at any time in American history. And 100% of the jobs created since I took office have been in the private sector.”
Since January, the private sector has added 687,000 jobs, while the government has eliminated 188,000 positions.

An unexpected moment at the end
The meeting concluded with a lighter moment that reportedly drew laughter from everyone in the room. Someone mentioned that Waller can deadlift 158 kilograms. Trump was said to be “genuinely impressed.” Not impressed enough to hand him the top job—but enough to earn admiration.
Waller left with a clear understanding: the search continues, and he does not expect the phone to ring.

#Fed , #TRUMP , #FederalReserve , #economy , #USPolitics

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The UK government is facing a serious cybersecurity incident that has been linked, according to available information, to the hacking group Storm 1849, which is believed to have connections to China. The attack was reported by the BBC, which stated that sensitive government systems were compromised.
The incident involved data handled by the Foreign Office on behalf of the Home Office, particularly information related to visas. While officials say the risk to individuals remains low, the security breach has triggered a wide-ranging investigation across multiple government agencies.
Trade Minister Chris Bryant confirmed on Friday that a data breach had occurred. However, he emphasized that there is currently no indication that individuals have been directly harmed. He also stated that the security vulnerability was closed relatively quickly.
When asked whether the attack could be directly attributed to the Chinese state, Bryant was cautious. In an interview with Times Radio, he said it is not yet possible to determine whether the incident was carried out by Chinese state agents or by other actors attempting to disguise their origin.

Thousands of visa records may have been targeted
According to available information, the October cyber incident targeted systems containing visa-related data, potentially putting thousands of sensitive records at risk. The breach was detected by the Foreign Office itself, and the case has since been referred to the Information Commissioner’s Office (ICO).
The UK government has not publicly named the perpetrators, but officials confirmed that investigations are ongoing and that multiple security agencies are involved.

Intelligence warnings: Chinese cyber operations are intensifying
Suspicions of a China-linked group come amid repeated warnings from UK intelligence services about the growing aggressiveness of Chinese cyber operations. Agencies including GCHQ have repeatedly warned of attempts to steal political and commercial information, stating that more resources are now devoted to China-related activities than to those involving any other country.
According to Jamie MacColl, head of cyber and technology research at the Royal United Services Institute, one of the core problems is that many government departments still rely on outdated IT systems.
“This can be particularly acute in the public sector, because there simply isn’t enough funding,” MacColl said. He added that public procurement often becomes a race to the lowest price, leading officials to choose the cheapest providers rather than the most secure ones.

Weak infrastructure and underinvestment in defense
A similar assessment was offered by Jake Moore, global cybersecurity advisor at ESET. He said the breach once again highlights how vulnerable government digital infrastructure really is.
“Governments often rely on legacy systems because they don’t have the money to upgrade them,” Moore told the BBC. He stressed that departments must invest more heavily in digital defenses if they want to avoid repeated attacks.
Commenting on Chinese cyber tactics, Moore noted that while many cyberattacks are financially motivated, this case appears different. “This represents another level, where the primary motivation is espionage and surveillance,” he said.
At the same time, Moore cautioned against jumping to conclusions. “Sophisticated cybercriminals can make an attack appear as though it originated from another country,” he explained, adding that confirming Chinese involvement at this stage would be particularly sensitive.

A delicate moment for UK–China relations
Any confirmation of direct Chinese involvement would come at a politically delicate time. Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer is expected to visit Beijing next year, which would mark the first visit by a UK prime minister since 2018.
The Labour government has said that engagement with China is essential on issues such as trade and climate change, but that this does not mean ignoring national security concerns. “Government systems will always be potential targets for attacks,” Bryant said, adding that the government is actively addressing the consequences of the incident.
China has consistently denied any involvement. In response to the UK’s national security strategy, a spokesperson for the Chinese embassy in London previously described British accusations as entirely fabricated and malicious slander.
Starmer has also warned that the UK cannot afford to swing between extremes in how it manages its relationship with China. “Failing to engage with China would be a dereliction of duty,” he said, describing the country as a defining force in technology, trade, and global governance.
He added that building a careful and realistic relationship with China is necessary to ensure the UK remains strong on the world stage while protecting its national security—acknowledging the reality that China does pose a security challenge.

#CyberSecurity , #Geopolitics , #USGovernment , #technews , #UK

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