GEMINI
I'm just an immature trader and a crypto lover 👋
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Within the $62K-$72K range, the market appears to be entering a phase of gradual accumulation. Buyers are starting to build positions, but the scale of this activity is still modest compared to past cycles that preceded strong upward expansions. While sentiment is improving, the market has yet to establish a strong enough foundation for a reliable mid term breakout.
#BTCUSDT 1H chart shows a bullish move after a strong pump from around 69,150 to 71,900. Price is still above the moving averages, so the short term trend is bullish. The main resistance is around 71,900-72,100 where price already faced rejection.
The main support is around 70,600-71,000. If BTC holds above that support, it can try another move toward 72K+. If it loses that level, price may drop toward 70K or 69.5K.
The main support is around 70,600-71,000. If BTC holds above that support, it can try another move toward 72K+. If it loses that level, price may drop toward 70K or 69.5K.
Whenever #Bitcoin drops below its Active Realized Price, it has historically signaled the beginning of a bear market. This is why every serious Bitcoin analyst studies on chain metrics. These metrics reveal how Bitcoin’s price history develops and how different groups of holders behave during various market conditions. By analyzing this data, we can better understand accumulation phases, distribution periods and shifts in investor sentiment.
On chain analysis gives a deeper layer of insight that traditional charts alone cannot provide. It shows what is actually happening on the blockchain, from long term holders holding strong to short term traders reacting to market pressure. That level of transparency is one of the reasons Bitcoin remains one of the most fascinating assets in the world to analyze.
On chain analysis gives a deeper layer of insight that traditional charts alone cannot provide. It shows what is actually happening on the blockchain, from long term holders holding strong to short term traders reacting to market pressure. That level of transparency is one of the reasons Bitcoin remains one of the most fascinating assets in the world to analyze.
Despite weak buy side liquidity, short term relief rallies can still appear after several weeks of consolidation. One important resistance indicator is the 1W-1M Short Term Holder cost basis, currently near $70K.
The ±2% band around this level ($68.5K-$71.5K) is acting as a strong resistance and distribution zone. Many recent buyers may choose to exit around their breakeven level, which could limit any near term recovery.
The ±2% band around this level ($68.5K-$71.5K) is acting as a strong resistance and distribution zone. Many recent buyers may choose to exit around their breakeven level, which could limit any near term recovery.
The #Bitcoin Bull Score Index has risen to 30, marking its strongest level since late October. As a result, the market condition has shifted from “extremely bearish” to simply “bearish." A few important bullish signals have started to appear. Exchange flows are improving, stablecoin liquidity is expanding, and price action is showing stronger movement. These factors usually indicate that capital is slowly coming back into the market.
That said, the overall market trend has not fully turned bullish yet. #Bitcoin is still moving within a broader bear market structure, but the current price movement looks like a short term recovery rally rather than a full trend reversal. If these positive signals continue and buying pressure grows, the market could gradually move toward a more balanced phase. Until then, the rally should be viewed as temporary strength within a still-cautious market environment.
That said, the overall market trend has not fully turned bullish yet. #Bitcoin is still moving within a broader bear market structure, but the current price movement looks like a short term recovery rally rather than a full trend reversal. If these positive signals continue and buying pressure grows, the market could gradually move toward a more balanced phase. Until then, the rally should be viewed as temporary strength within a still-cautious market environment.
Since the end of January, spot trading activity across the top 500 cryptocurrencies has been on a steady decline. At the same time, #Bitcoin has been moving in the opposite direction, with its spot volume staying relatively strong and even increasing through most of February.
This contrast highlights a shift in market behavior. While trading interest in many altcoins has been fading, Bitcoin continues to attract liquidity and attention from traders. It suggests that investors may be consolidating their capital into Bitcoin, often seen as the most stable and trusted asset in the crypto market during uncertain periods.
This contrast highlights a shift in market behavior. While trading interest in many altcoins has been fading, Bitcoin continues to attract liquidity and attention from traders. It suggests that investors may be consolidating their capital into Bitcoin, often seen as the most stable and trusted asset in the crypto market during uncertain periods.
Still Extreme Fear 👀
Since February 21, the 90 day SMA of the Realized Profit/Loss Ratio has stayed below the neutral level of 1, indicating that investors are collectively realizing more losses than profits during this period. In past market cycles, once this indicator drops below 1, it rarely recovers immediately. Instead, it often remains under this level for six months or more before finally reclaiming it.
This type of trend usually signals a weaker market environment, where sentiment is cautious and many participants choose to exit positions even at a loss. Periods like this often appear during extended corrections or consolidation phases, before conditions gradually improve and the market shifts back toward stronger profitability.
This type of trend usually signals a weaker market environment, where sentiment is cautious and many participants choose to exit positions even at a loss. Periods like this often appear during extended corrections or consolidation phases, before conditions gradually improve and the market shifts back toward stronger profitability.
During the last 24 hours, the crypto market experienced a wave of liquidations, with 98,116 traders losing their leveraged positions. In total, liquidations across the market reached $203.95 million.
The largest single liquidation took place on Bybit, where a #BTCUSDT position worth $1.98 million was wiped out in one order.
The largest single liquidation took place on Bybit, where a #BTCUSDT position worth $1.98 million was wiped out in one order.
Over the past few months of consolidation, some short term holders seem to have increased their exposure. This is reflected in the STH SOPR, which has been gradually rising since February. The 1 month average moved from 0.977 to 0.987, these investors are now realizing fewer losses when they spend their coins. SOPR basically shows whether coins are sold at profit or loss by comparing the selling price with the buying price.
Recently, the indicator has been trying to move back above the 1.0 level, which is considered the neutral point. However, since October it has mostly stayed below this level, meaning many holders were selling at a loss, something commonly seen in bear market conditions. For the market to turn more positive, short term holders need to start taking profits again. When investors begin realizing profits, confidence usually returns and people are more willing to hold their positions expecting higher prices ahead.
Recently, the indicator has been trying to move back above the 1.0 level, which is considered the neutral point. However, since October it has mostly stayed below this level, meaning many holders were selling at a loss, something commonly seen in bear market conditions. For the market to turn more positive, short term holders need to start taking profits again. When investors begin realizing profits, confidence usually returns and people are more willing to hold their positions expecting higher prices ahead.
The amount of circulating supply currently in loss is increasing again, signaling that more investors are holding their assets below their purchase price. This often reflects growing pressure in the market and a shift toward more cautious sentiment among participants. When we compare this situation with past market cycles, similar patterns have usually appeared during the early stages of a bearish period rather than at the final market bottom.
That means the market could still be in the process of adjusting before reaching a true recovery phase. As the share of supply in loss grows, uncertainty and volatility often rise as well. Some investors may begin to exit their positions, while others take a step back to observe the market more carefully. At the same time, these conditions can slowly set the stage for the market to stabilize and rebuild strength over time.
That means the market could still be in the process of adjusting before reaching a true recovery phase. As the share of supply in loss grows, uncertainty and volatility often rise as well. Some investors may begin to exit their positions, while others take a step back to observe the market more carefully. At the same time, these conditions can slowly set the stage for the market to stabilize and rebuild strength over time.
Some altcoins are beginning to show signs of recovery even though the overall crypto market is still facing uncertainty. The Total3 index, which tracks the market capitalization of altcoins excluding Ethereum, is currently ranging between $640B and $740B and has gained about 11% since early February. #XRP is currently showing a few encouraging signals.
Withdrawals from #Binance have recently spiked, including more than 14,000 transactions on March 6, which could indicate that some investors are accumulating XRP and moving it to private wallets instead of leaving it on exchanges. At the same time, interest in #XRP ETFs continues to grow, with total inflows already exceeding $1.4B. Reports also say that Goldman Sachs holds over 83 million XRP, showing that institutional interest in the asset is gradually increasing. If this trend continues, XRP could attract more liquidity within the altcoin market...
Withdrawals from #Binance have recently spiked, including more than 14,000 transactions on March 6, which could indicate that some investors are accumulating XRP and moving it to private wallets instead of leaving it on exchanges. At the same time, interest in #XRP ETFs continues to grow, with total inflows already exceeding $1.4B. Reports also say that Goldman Sachs holds over 83 million XRP, showing that institutional interest in the asset is gradually increasing. If this trend continues, XRP could attract more liquidity within the altcoin market...
Market losses are starting to ease after the recent capitulation. #Bitcoin is still seeing more realized losses than profits, with about $611M in losses compared to $346M in profits, leaving the weekly net PnL around -$264M. This is an improvement compared to early February when weekly losses were close to $2B as #BTC fell below $60K.
Short Term Holders remain the most active participants and now control about 22% of the Bitcoin supply, up from 12% in January 2023. If the net PnL turns positive again, it could be a strong sign that the market is recovering after several months of losses.
Short Term Holders remain the most active participants and now control about 22% of the Bitcoin supply, up from 12% in January 2023. If the net PnL turns positive again, it could be a strong sign that the market is recovering after several months of losses.
Rising global tensions, particularly between #Iran and the #united States, are creating uncertainty in financial markets and making investors more cautious about taking risks. As a result, traders are reducing their use of leverage. #Bitcoin’s Estimated Leverage Ratio on Binance has fallen from 0.198 to 0.152 since February, while the price of Bitcoin dropped from about $96,000 to $69,000 during the same period.
Many leveraged positions were closed or liquidated, leading to a decline in Open Interest. This decrease in leverage can help the market become more stable and form a healthier base before the next major price movement.
Many leveraged positions were closed or liquidated, leading to a decline in Open Interest. This decrease in leverage can help the market become more stable and form a healthier base before the next major price movement.
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