Bitcoin Price Action: Full Retracement to Yearly Open
Bitcoin has wiped out its 2026 gains, completing a 100% retracement of the recent move.
Key Levels: • Resistance Rejected: $97,900 (The +12% peak). • Support Tested: ~$87,500 (The Yearly Open).
Market Analysis: The rapid decline has neutralized the Year-to-Date (YTD) performance. However, technical structure suggests the long-term trend is still intact. This price action is characteristic of a "shakeout" phase to clear excess leverage before trend continuation.
BNB has recorded a sharp intraday correction, dropping approximately 4%.
Market Data: • Movement: -4% downside. • Context: Correlated with broader weakness in BTC and ETH. • Structure: The asset is currently seeking liquidity at lower support bands.
Traders should monitor volume at these levels to determine if buyers step in to defend the trend or if sell pressure continues.
The widespread expectation of a "BTC → ETH → Altseason" capital rotation has failed to materialize in the 2024–2025 cycle.
Why the 2021 Model Failed: Investors mistook the 2021 cycle—driven by aggressive QE and fiscal stimulus—for the standard market structure. Without that specific liquidity injection, the rotation mechanics have broken down.
Macro Liquidity is King: • Historical data shows altcoins only outperform during liquidity expansion. • QT (Quantitative Tightening) officially ended in December 2025. • Recovery Lag: In past cycles, meaningful altcoin trends lagged liquidity shifts by 6–18 months.
Conclusion: We are currently moving through a phase of market acceptance. The strategy must shift from anticipating a "Monaco-style" blow-off top to respecting the current liquidity constraints.
📉 $BTC is consolidating. Michael Soloway says this sideways movement often "stores energy" for the next leg up.
There is a solid chance Bitcoin pushes to $100,000, but there is a catch. $100K is a major psychological wall and could turn into a heavy selling zone.
On the $ETH side, Ethereum bounced off major support, opening the door to $3,600–$3,700.
$XRP is attempting a structure shift after breaking out of triangle compression.
Technical view: a contracting triangle is resolving upward inside a broader downtrend. The bias stays bullish only if XRP can hold above the breakout area and build acceptance, turning the triangle top into support while respecting the rising trendline.
If XRP slips back inside the triangle, the breakout likely gets delayed or invalidated.
🔥 The Fed Story Just Changed — Markets Are Repricing
For months, traders expected rate cuts in 2026. Now that view is fading, and crypto is reacting as liquidity expectations reset.
JPMorgan no longer expects any cuts in 2026 and now forecasts a 25 bps hike in Q3 2027. Goldman Sachs also pushed cut expectations to mid–late 2026, while other banks are delaying their timelines as well. CME FedWatch shows a 95% probability the Fed holds rates at its January meeting.
For $BTC and $ETH, this matters because tighter liquidity usually slows momentum and rewards patience over chasing narratives.
In a Benzinga interview, WhiteBIT founder Volodymyr Nosov says the 2025 correction was a healthy reset, and that the market is now shifting from short-term price noise to long-term structure.
His main points: Institutions are reshaping crypto RWA tokenization could be a major growth driver Regulation and real-world adoption matter more each cycle
He also estimates tokenized assets could reach $10–15T within the next 5 years.
There are reports that a “Satoshi-era” whale has become active again after years of silence, with claims of buying around 26,900 $BTC (roughly $2.45B).
If confirmed on-chain, this would be one of the most notable whale reactivations in a long time, and it would show strong conviction at current prices.
For now, it’s important to treat this as unconfirmed until the wallet activity is verified by reliable on-chain tracking.
Bitcoin has reclaimed the $91,200 level after breaking above local resistance.
The key now is whether price can hold and accept above $91.2K, not just wick above it. If support holds, momentum could push BTC toward the $94,000 area. Failure would likely send price back into consolidation.
$BTC is showing very similar price behavior to April 2025: • Breakout structure looks the same • Whales are closing longs • A double-bottom pattern is forming
If history rhymes, this setup could lead to a Q2-2025-style rally.
$XRP is bouncing from a long-term support zone and has pushed out of a short-term bearish channel. This move suggests buyers are trying to regain control and test higher resistance levels.
As long as XRP holds above the base support, the bias remains cautiously bullish. A failure to hold this level could weaken the recovery and reopen downside risk.
Market structure shows how $BTC behaves over time. Higher highs and higher lows signal bullish momentum, while lower highs and lower lows show bearish control.
Trends offer clearer opportunities, while ranges require patience. When structure shifts, it often signals either continuation or reversal.
🚨 Breaking: Even Insiders Lose in Crypto A trader labeled as “Trump’s insider” has closed a massive $311M Bitcoin long at a $3.8M loss.
Despite claims of a perfect win rate and entering the trade ahead of Trump’s signing, the position still failed. It’s a reminder that size, timing, and insider narratives don’t guarantee profits in crypto markets.
Polymarket’s refusal to pay out bets on a U.S. invasion of Venezuela has triggered significant backlash. The platform argued the military action in Venezuela did not satisfy the specific contract conditions, leading to millions of dollars in unresolved wagers and criticism from users who believe the event should have qualified.
This episode has renewed debate around prediction market definitions, fairness, and transparency.
📊 Golden Cross vs Death Cross: What Bitcoin History Tells Us
Golden and Death Crosses are simple moving average signals (50 vs 200), often misunderstood as future predictions. In reality, they reflect sentiment after moves already started.
They worked in 2020 and 2024 because structure, volume, and macro aligned. They failed in 2021 when selling was already exhausted.
Best used with market structure, volume, and macro context.