Yesterday Bitcoin retraced to test all of the levels that I have been warning about for the past couple of days. After initially holding $74.2k (Prev Week Low), this level has also been lost due to new missile launches in the US/ Iran conflict.
If you look at my chart, the orange line shows a hidden 4hr S/R flips level that was lost earlier. It is key for BTC to reclaim this, as well as the $74.2k level to avoid a further fall in price. If we see these levels start to act as solid resistance, and we see sustained consolidation below, a retest in the $72k - $71k area is likely.
Yesterday I mentioned that Bitcoin had a number of untested levels between $75.8k - $78.4k and, now that the $76.3k (Monthly Open) level has been lost as 4hr support, we have arrived at this zone.
Until $76.3k is reclaimed, we cannot rule out BTC testing the bottom end of the zone I mentioned ($74.8k) and even the Prev Week Low at $74.2k.
Bitcoin lost $77k (Weekly Open) and $76.8k (Monday Low) on the first 4hr candle of today, and this opens up the increased potential of further downside. There are many untested levels between $75.8k - $74.8k left behind from the V-Shaped recovery last week which now become interesting. For now, $76.3k (Monthly Open) is protecting BTC from moving towards these lower levels, but if we see acceptance under the monthly open then it becomes very likely we see $75k at least.
Bitcoin is slowly continuing it's recovery, and looks like it may have put in a Higher Low on the 4hr timeframe at yesterdays $76.2k retest (Monthly Open). The $76.2k level was respected as support on 3 consecutive candles yesterday, so from here bulls need to see a strong Higher High. This would mean seeing acceptance above the Prev Week High, but also above $78.5k where there is a level of supply. If BTC closes any 4hr candle below $76.2k (Monthly Open) then we can expect the next leg down to happen.
Bitcoin gave a V-shaped recovery yesterday with the news (again) that US/ Iran are close to a deal. Honestly, this really manipulates the markets and until there is confirmation of a deal from both sides, we really should keep an open mind. BTC has reclaimed $76.2k, which means it is back inside the previously choppy range, and is also now consolidating above $76.6k (Prev Week Low).
The resistance for BTC is just above at $77.4k (Weekly Open) which we already saw a rejection from on a retest last night. Clear $77.4k and $77.7k (Monday High) and BTC will probably go on to fill the $79.1k CME gap. However, for the reasons mentioned above, we have to be open to a full retracement of last night's move if negative news develops.