This is why I Think $BTC will go to 55k in 2026 Marks the Next Bear Market Phase:
Look at the 2021 structure. BTC pushed to ~64k, dropped to ~29k, expanded again to ~69k, then entered a long unwind that ended near 15k.
Now look at the current cycle. We broke the 69k high, printed a new ATH around 109k, pulled back to ~75k, then expanded again toward ~126k. Price is now ranging between 80k and 89k.
The behavior is familiar. Higher highs, followed by weaker follow-through & longer ranges. In 2021, this phase coincided with alt season turning into the alt rug cycle.
This time, it is memecoins Rug season. Same psychology, different assets.
That is why 2026 looks like a bear market phase to me. A reset period, likely placing BTC back in the 60k–55k range, consistent with historical post expansion behavior.
Not a financial advice but a informative historical analysis
The traditional altcoin season is dead. Most of the coins you are holding were never part of a sustainable cycle they were essentially high-production rug seasons. These projects hit an all-time high, dumped, and the teams vanished. This is not a story; it is the truth of the current market.
History repeats, but it changes its clothes. In 2017, the alt season was driven by the Ethereum ICO boom. Ethereum provided the ERC-20 standard, allowing teams in suits to raise millions based on whitepapers. It was professional, institutional, and centered on the promise of new "utility" platforms.
In this cycle, the game shifted to Solana and memecoins. Now, instead of a corporate team, someone in their pajamas can launch a coin on Pumpfun and rug millions in minutes. Real liquidity has stayed with $BTC , $ETH , and $SOL XRP and more while old altcoins continue to dip because they lack the transparency and active community needed to survive
The next generation of investors will wait for a "memecoin season" the same way people waited for an alt season. But who is going to buy those bags when the hype dies? Hope is the ultimate portfolio killer. Success requires moving beyond 2021 logic. A "season" isn't a weather event that happens automatically every four years. It is a shift in liquidity.
To survive, you must Analyze the team: Ensure they aren't anonymous ghosts. Verify the socials: Look for a living community, not just bot activity. Follow the utility: If a project reaches its floor and has no use case, it is dead inside.
Stop waiting for a return to the past. Follow where the activity is happening now, and don't get stuck holding the last cycle's losers.
Announced sale valuation is ~$550M at ~$0.05 per token. However the sale includes a 100% bonus, which effectively brings the realized valuation to ~$275M and the effective price to ~$0.025.
Breakdown across rounds:
OG Sale: ~$0.005
Prime Sale: ~$0.025
Public Sale: ~$0.05
Pre-Market: ~$0.042
With the bonus mechanism, the largest relative impact is on Public Sale participants due to the implied valuation adjustment.