📊 Fear Index at 12, extreme fear is the best buying signal
Alright folks, today's market has got me a bit hyped. BTC at $62146, up 1.376% in the last 24 hours, ETH at $1640.77 with a 1.031% rise, and SOL slightly up at $64.53 with a 0.358% increase. But the fear index has dropped to 12, which is in the extreme fear zone. Historically, every time it hits this level, the rebound probability exceeds 70%. Don't let emotions throw you off.
First point: BTC's rebound strength isn't enough, but on-chain data is improving.
BTC pulled from 61800 to 62146, not a massive gain, but on-chain data shows net outflows from exchanges are continuously increasing, with over 12,000 BTC flowing out in the last 24 hours. This indicates that the whales are accumulating at these low levels, not dumping. My view is that 62000 has short-term support, but we need to see a volume breakout above 63000 to confirm a reversal. If we can close above 62500 today, I’ll be adding to my position.
Second point: ETH is weaker than BTC, but SOL might be a hidden gem.
ETH only went up by 1%, showing weak correlation, indicating that market sentiment isn’t fully back yet. SOL, while only up 0.358%, has seen the number of active addresses hitting a near-weekly high, and DeFi locked value is also rising. My take is that SOL might outperform ETH in this round of rebounds, with 64.5 being a decent entry zone. Don’t chase the highs, wait for a dip to 63.
Third point: Fear Index at 12, historically this level has been a golden opportunity.
The last time the fear index hit 12 was back in September 2024, and after that, BTC skyrocketed from 59000 to 74000 within a month. Right now, market sentiment is being crushed by various macro news, but the on-chain data isn't supporting the bears. I believe the bottom of this dip is likely in the 60000-62000 range, and accumulating on dips is safer than going all-in short.
Alright folks, today's market has got me a bit hyped. BTC at $62146, up 1.376% in the last 24 hours, ETH at $1640.77 with a 1.031% rise, and SOL slightly up at $64.53 with a 0.358% increase. But the fear index has dropped to 12, which is in the extreme fear zone. Historically, every time it hits this level, the rebound probability exceeds 70%. Don't let emotions throw you off.
First point: BTC's rebound strength isn't enough, but on-chain data is improving.
BTC pulled from 61800 to 62146, not a massive gain, but on-chain data shows net outflows from exchanges are continuously increasing, with over 12,000 BTC flowing out in the last 24 hours. This indicates that the whales are accumulating at these low levels, not dumping. My view is that 62000 has short-term support, but we need to see a volume breakout above 63000 to confirm a reversal. If we can close above 62500 today, I’ll be adding to my position.
Second point: ETH is weaker than BTC, but SOL might be a hidden gem.
ETH only went up by 1%, showing weak correlation, indicating that market sentiment isn’t fully back yet. SOL, while only up 0.358%, has seen the number of active addresses hitting a near-weekly high, and DeFi locked value is also rising. My take is that SOL might outperform ETH in this round of rebounds, with 64.5 being a decent entry zone. Don’t chase the highs, wait for a dip to 63.
Third point: Fear Index at 12, historically this level has been a golden opportunity.
The last time the fear index hit 12 was back in September 2024, and after that, BTC skyrocketed from 59000 to 74000 within a month. Right now, market sentiment is being crushed by various macro news, but the on-chain data isn't supporting the bears. I believe the bottom of this dip is likely in the 60000-62000 range, and accumulating on dips is safer than going all-in short.