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Bitcoin remains trapped below its $79,000 True Market Mean level, with onchain models now framing a broad $79,000 to $54,900 structural range, Glassnode said.
Options markets show panic hedging fading, but analysts say liquidity conditions, ETF outflows, and macro uncertainty continue to cap conviction.
Bitcoin is still trading below a key onchain valuation benchmark heading into late February, as analysts say recent price action has reset the market’s structural framework, reflecting strained liquidity and the absence of sustained institutional demand.
Glassnode noted in its latest weekly report that bitcoin has decisively broken beneath the “True Market Mean” — a model tracking the aggregate cost basis of active supply. That level, currently around $79,000, has historically acted as a dividing line between expansionary and compression phases, it said.
With the breakdown confirmed, the firm sees the Realized Price near $54,900 — the average acquisition cost of all circulating coins — as the lower structural boundary. In previous cycles, the corridor between those two anchors has framed prolonged consolidation.
Bitcoin was trading around $67,700 at publication time, hovering within a broad $60,000 to $70,000 band that has defined recent price action, according to The Block’s price page.
Current price levels mark a further deterioration from earlier February conditions, when analysts noted bitcoin was “staying defensive” below $70,000 amid shallow demand. Since then, ETF flows have turned persistently negative, and spot sell pressure has intensified, reinforcing the lack of a structural bid beneath the market.
Glassnode’s data shows U.S. spot ETF net flows have rotated back into sustained outflows, removing what previously served as a steady source of marginal demand. Spot cumulative volume delta across major exchanges also flipped negative, signaling active sell-side aggression rather than passive liquidity gaps, the firm said.
While onchain accumulation metrics improved from outright distribution, appetite from large holders remains fragile, according to the Glassnode analysts. The Accumulation Trend Score has moved toward a neutral reading around 0.4, indicating that aggressive selling has eased, yet large-entity conviction has not returned in force. Liquidity conditions have stayed compressed, with realized profit-to-loss ratios stuck in a narrow band historically associated with stressed regimes, they said.
Meanwhile, derivatives positioning suggests the panic phase has cooled but not transitioned into renewed optimism. Implied volatility has retreated sharply from recent highs, and 25-delta skew — a gauge of downside hedging demand — has compressed from extreme levels. The data suggests traders are unwinding crash protection, but they are not rebuilding upside exposure in size, Glassnode said.
Macro conditions continue to shape the backdrop as well. Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s January meeting carried a hawkish tone, emphasizing patience on rate cuts and keeping the possibility of further tightening in play if inflation persists.
Bitcoin is navigating an adjustment phase amid macroeconomic caution,” said Antonio Di Giacomo, senior market analyst at XS.com, pointing to resistance near $70,000 and intermediate support around $64,000 to $65,000. He added that the lack of clarity around monetary easing is weighing on speculative assets.
Nic Puckrin, co-founder of Coin Bureau, said that liquidity — rather than technical levels alone — will determine when a durable bottom forms. He highlighted onchain spot volume data showing continued sell-side pressure and suggested deeper capitulation toward the $55,000 to $58,000 region remains possible unless ETF inflows return or the dollar weakens materially.
The tone echoes a recent K33 report, which said bitcoin is approaching “late bear market territory,” with regime signals resembling those seen near the 2022 bottom. Yet analysts caution that structural recovery typically requires a clear improvement in liquidity, not just positioning resets.
Despite the market gloom, there are some early stabilization signals. Kraken’s global economist Thomas Perfumo noted that implied volatility has diverged below realized volatility — a pattern that has preceded recovery phases in prior corrections. Coin Days Destroyed, a proxy for long-term holder activity, has also stabilized, suggesting reduced supply pressure from older coins, Perfumo said.
Still, multiple analysts' opinions reviewed by The Block agree that conviction remains muted. ETF flows are not cushioning downside, large entities are not accumulating aggressively, and macro conditions have yet to pivot decisively.
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