usjobsdata

The U.S. labor market posted a stronger-than-expected gain of 119,000 jobs in September, even as the unemployment rate unexpectedly climbed to 4.4%, according to long-delayed government data released Thursday.The report — originally scheduled for early October — was pushed back six weeks due to the federal government shutdown, leaving markets without timely labor figures throughout a volatile period.What to KnowThe U.S. added 119,000 jobs, beating economist expectations of 50,000.The unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, above the 4.3% forecast.The shutdown-delayed jobs report arrives as markets weigh fading Fed rate-cut odds.Bitcoin held modest gains around $91,900 following strong Nvidia earnings.Next up-to-date labor data will not be released until mid-December.Delayed Report Shows Labor Market Firmer Than ExpectedThe Bureau of Labor Statistics data showed nonfarm payrolls rising by 119,000 in September. Economists had projected 50,000, following a revised 4,000-job decline in August (originally reported as a 22,000 gain).However, the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4%, suggesting a softening in labor-market conditions despite stronger hiring.The late release complicates the near-term economic outlook, as policymakers, analysts and traders lack fresh data heading into the Federal Reserve’s final 2025 meeting.Market Reaction: Bitcoin Holds Gains, Nasdaq Futures JumpBitcoin continued to hold its modest overnight lift, trading near $91,900 after Nvidia’s strong earnings and upbeat outlook calmed jittery markets late Wednesday.U.S. equity futures extended those gains:Nasdaq futures +1.9%S&P 500 and Dow futures higher10-year Treasury yield steady at 4.11%U.S. dollar index slightly strongerThe jobs report did not materially shift sentiment, as markets had already priced out a December rate cut.Fed Rate Cut Expectations Unlikely to ChangeTraders had largely eliminated the possibility of a December interest rate cut prior to the data release, citing:the Federal Reserve’s hawkish tone in recent speechesuncertainty caused by missing labor-market dataconcerns about inflation persistenceThursday’s numbers — strong on payrolls but weaker on unemployment — are unlikely to alter those expectations.With no updated employment report arriving until mid-December, the Fed will go into its final 2025 meeting with only partial visibility into labor conditions.OutlookThe September report offers a backward-looking snapshot of a labor market that remains resilient but is showing signs of cooling at the margins. Markets now await the next batch of timely data, though it may arrive after key policy decisions are already made.For now:hiring is strongerunemployment is risingand the Fed’s December calculus remains unchangedCrypto and equities continue to take signals primarily from earnings strength, tech momentum and shifting rate expectations rather than delayed economic data.

Bitcoin Has Not Bottomed Yet

Despite a sharp sell-off earlier this month, onchain data suggests Bitcoin has not yet reached a structural bear market bottom. According to CryptoQuant, multiple key indicators remain inconsistent with historical cycle lows, implying that the bottoming process is still incomplete — and could take months rather than days.

Heavy Losses, But Not Capitulation

One of the clearest warning signals is the scale of realized losses. Bitcoin holders recently realized around $5.4 billion in losses in a single day on February 5, when BTC fell roughly 14% to $62,000. While this marked the largest daily realized loss since March 2023, CryptoQuant notes it is still not extreme enough to signal a definitive market bottom.

For comparison, daily realized losses reached $5.8 billion at previous cycle lows, and losses after the FTX collapse in November 2022 exceeded $4.3 billion. Even with the recent spike, CryptoQuant says the data does not yet reflect full capitulation.

On a longer timeframe, monthly cumulative realized losses remain far below historical bear market bottoms. Current figures sit near 0.3 million BTC, compared with roughly 1.1 million BTC realized at the end of the 2022 bear market.

Valuation Metrics Still Elevated

Several core valuation indicators also remain above traditional capitulation zones. The MVRV ratio, which compares Bitcoin’s market value to its realized value, has not yet entered the deeply undervalued range that historically marks macro bottoms.

Similarly, the Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL) metric has not reached the ~20% unrealized loss level seen at prior cycle lows. These metrics suggest that pain has increased, but not to the extent typically required to reset market structure.

Long-Term Holders Are Still Holding

CryptoQuant also highlights the behavior of long-term holders as another sign the bottom is not in. Historically, cycle lows occur when long-term holders capitulate at losses of 30–40%. At present, long-term holders are selling roughly around breakeven.

In addition, around 55% of the Bitcoin supply remains in profit, compared with the 45–50% range that has historically marked deep bear market lows. This indicates that a meaningful portion of the market has yet to experience maximum financial stress.

The $55,000 “Ultimate” Bottom Zone

Based on its models, CryptoQuant estimates Bitcoin’s “ultimate” bear market bottom to be near $55,000, closely aligned with Bitcoin’s realized price — a level that has historically acted as major support during bear markets.

Bitcoin is currently trading more than 25% above its realized price, whereas in prior cycles, price fell 24–30% below realized price before forming a durable bottom. After reaching those levels, Bitcoin typically spent four to six months building a base before a sustained recovery began.

A Process, Not an Event

CryptoQuant’s Bull–Bear Market Cycle Indicator remains in the Bear Phase, not the Extreme Bear Phase that usually signals the start of a bottoming process. This reinforces the idea that bear market bottoms are not single capitulation events, but extended periods of consolidation and exhaustion.

Adding to the cautious outlook, Standard Chartered recently cut its near-term crypto forecast, warning that Bitcoin could still fall toward $50,000 before stabilizing and rebounding later in the year.

Final Take

The data paints a clear picture: while Bitcoin has already endured significant damage, the conditions that historically define a true bear market bottom are not yet fully in place. If past cycles are any guide, the market may still need more time — and more pressure — before a durable bottom is formed.

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