bitcoin

Bitcoin is once again testing the previous bull market high, a level last seen at the peak of 2021 — nearly five years ago — raising questions about where the cycle stands and what happens next.
I haven't seen anyone talk about this, or the other points I am about to make. So it is time for me to write a new idea.

1- Why price action at this level is so important

Previous highs represent an important market structure for a lot of market participants. They view this level as significant for various reasons. You have in particular the investors that sold at the top (either in 2021 or in 2024 when it got revisited and the price consolidated there for months) or that wanted to buy now feel regret after missing out or want to break even. It is also important to mention the long term investors that view this level as one they want to defend, like everyone else they see the same chart.

With Bitcoin these levels are extremely important based on the simple fact that there are virtually no fundamentals driving the price. The major driver is how investors feel. They can rationalize all they want, they just can't help it, and I believe the price action shows this.
As you can see on the following chart, the few times the price tested a previous long term high it formed a strong bottom and it was the start of a bull market.

2- Are we still in wave A?

I am not convinced we are at the bottom of the bear market. I think it has just begun. Bitcoin does not just drop 50% and goes up. When it drops, it drops 80%.

First of all the bounce which would be wave B, is unimpressive, it is much smaller than every single Bitcoin B wave in the past. This bounce we saw was a .382 bounce, whereas the actual B waves in previous bear markets all were bigger than 50%.
There were .382 bounces in previous bear markets, and they were just part of wave A, or in other words, only the beginning.

And we did not see massive liquidations, and capitulation as we have in the past. Or at least not yet.

3- Volatility indicators have dropped

During the price crash of a few weeks ago, volatility indicators spiked and then dropped. This hints at a possible bottom. There is no certainty here, but usually when volatility returns to normal the price has bottomed. The bottom may be local and price might bounce into wave B, it could also be a stronger, longer term bottom.

4- Other investing, or gambling, avenues

Bitcoin has a lot of competition: In 2025 the price of gold has increased by 65%, and silver has gained 140%. Silver has gone up more than Bitcoin the last year it was in the green, which was 120% in 2024. And in 2025 Bitcoin has not even gone up while other, much less risky assets such as the S&P500 have been. There is also AI that some consider a better use of capital, attention, and electricity. All of this is extremely important. If Bitcoin on its best years cannot beat regular, safer, wildly accepted assets, there is absolutely no point into putting money into this coin. People that may be interested in crypto are going to look at stocks, at precious metals, and at their gambling apps.

Bitcoin no longer has the edge it had during most of its existence. In the short term interest rates and bond yields are down, but in the long term that are still higher than the 2009-2021 period. We know that when rates get higher, risk assets look less attractive. So we can expect less people to want to put money into this virtual currency.

5- What are investors doing?

The quantity of Bitcoin held by institutions has stopped going up and stagnated. There has been some selling but the overall total has flatlined. It shows some distribution, but it is not very convincing. The fear and greed index dropped into extreme fear, and overall investors worried. But I have not seen any signs of capitulation. No major inflows or outflows. All we see is cautious positioning. Definitely no aggressive accumulation.

This is anecdotal but the only "out of the ordinary" activity I noticed was the search terms "Will Bitcoin go to zero" in google trends. The last time this research got to a new high was in the first half of 2022, when the price of Bitcoin dropped by 80%.

Conclusion

Bitcoin is at a major level both technically and psychologically. Volatility compression hints at a bounce soon. I do not believe we have seen any sign of a major bottom. Investor positioning appears cautious rather than euphoric. Other assets appear much more interesting, which leads to the question of whether or not Bitcoin will attract new investors in the long term?

#BTC #bitcoin #BTCMiningDifficultyIncrease #trending

🚨 BREAKING: Trump Naikkan Tarif Global ke 15% — Market Siap Meledak?

Presiden Donald Trump resmi menaikkan tarif impor global dari 10% ➝ 15%, setelah keputusan Supreme Court of the United States membatalkan sebagian tarif sebelumnya.

Laporan dari Financial Times menyebut Gedung Putih kini memakai Section 122 Trade Act 1974 — artinya tarif ini bisa berlaku cepat hingga 150 hari.

Dan ini bukan berita kecil.

🌍 Apa Artinya Buat Market?

Tarif naik =

📈 Potensi inflasi naik

📉 Risiko perlambatan ekonomi

💵 Dolar bisa makin volatile

⚡ Market global siap goyang

Sejarah menunjukkan:

Setiap ada tensi dagang besar → crypto ikut bereaksi.

🟠 Lalu Bagaimana Dengan Bitcoin & Ethereum?

Bitcoin dan Ethereum biasanya sensitif terhadap:

• Pergerakan DXY

• Kebijakan ekonomi AS

• Sentimen risk-on / risk-off

Jika pasar takut inflasi ➝ BTC bisa dianggap hedge.

Jika pasar takut resesi ➝ aset risk bisa ditekan dulu.

Artinya?

👉 Volatilitas hampir pasti naik.

🔥 Pertanyaan Besar:

Menurut kamu ini…

A. Bullish untuk BTC 🚀

B. Bearish sementara 📉

C. Awal koreksi besar?

D. Noise saja?

Tulis jawabanmu + alasannya 👇

Kita lihat siapa paling akurat minggu ini.

#bitcoin #TRUMP #CryptoNewss
$BTC

Search interest for the phrase “Bitcoin to zero” has recently surged in the United States, reflecting heightened fear and uncertainty in the crypto market. Historically, extreme negative sentiment has often appeared near market bottoms, as retail investors react emotionally during periods of volatility.
However, the current signal is not entirely clear.
While rising bearish searches suggest panic-driven narratives are spreading, on-chain and market structure indicators show a more balanced picture. Some metrics point to accumulation by certain wallet cohorts, while others indicate ongoing distribution from larger holders. Liquidity conditions and macroeconomic uncertainty are also playing a role in shaping sentiment.
This creates what analysts describe as a “mixed bottom signal.” In simple terms, fear is elevated but confirmation of a definitive market bottom has not yet emerged across all data points.
The spike in negative search trends highlights how sentiment can diverge from long-term fundamentals. Whether this moment marks capitulation or continued consolidation will likely depend on broader market stability and sustained demand.
For now, the data suggests one thing clearly:
Market psychology is at an extreme, but the structural confirmation remains incomplete.
#bitcoin $BTC

Despite bearish pressure and weak US economic data, Bitcoin's recovering hashrate and new onchain security protocols raise the chance for a surge to $70,000.
Key takeaways:
A minor 4.3% Bitcoin price increase to $69,600 could trigger over $600 million in forced liquidations for bearish traders.Rising network hashrate and the BIP-360 quantum security proposal are helping to diminish long-term technical concerns.
$BTC $67,400 has remained confined within a relatively tight range of $65,900 to $70,500 over the past week. This stagnation has encouraged bearish traders, particularly as other major asset classes displayed resilience. However, even if Bitcoin requires months to reclaim the $90,000 level, excessive bearish confidence could trigger a wave of forced liquidations in futures positions, rapidly shifting momentum back to the bulls.

According to CoinGlass estimates, a price rally to $69,600 would force the liquidation of over $600 million in short $BTC futures. For context, when Bitcoin climbed to $70,560 from $60,200 on Feb. 6, short liquidations totaled $385 million. Currently, a mere 4.3% move upward from the $66,700 level could deliver an even more significant blow to those betting on further declines.
Bulls may also find a catalyst in weakening macroeconomic data. The US reported sluggish gross domestic product growth for the fourth quarter of 2025, with an annualized rate of 1.4% falling short of the 2.9% analysts expected, per Yahoo Finance. This slower economic activity negatively impacts corporate earnings outlooks, typically reducing investor appetite for stock market exposure.
Meanwhile, underlying US inflation rose more than anticipated in December, dampening hopes for near-term interest rate cuts. The US personal consumption expenditures price index, excluding food and energy, increased by 0.4% month on month. As the S&P 500 loses bullish steam, investors may be forced out of their comfort zones to seek higher returns in onchain markets.

Escalating Middle East tensions may prompt investors to seek alternative hedges, particularly after gold prices rallied 25% in just three months. Gold’s market capitalization has climbed to a staggering $35.2 trillion, nearly eight times larger than Nvidia (NVDA US), which sits at $4.6 trillion. 
As Bitcoin trades about 47% below its all-time high, the risk-reward profile for the cryptocurrency may become increasingly attractive to macro traders. For now, Bitcoin bears retain control, as evidenced by the lack of demand for long positions in the futures market.

The $BTC perpetual futures funding rate has failed to stay above the 6% neutral threshold over the last two weeks. More telling is the recent stretch of negative funding rate, suggesting that bears are committed to their positions even as Bitcoin retests the $66,000 support level. Regaining conviction remains a hurdle for the bulls, who witnessed $1.6 billion in liquidations during the three-day crash that started on Feb. 6.
Recovering hashrate and BIP-360 progress strengthen Bitcoin network security
While some of Bitcoin’s recent weakness was attributed to network security concerns, those risks are now dissipating.

The seven-day average hashrate has recovered to 1,100 exahashes per second, matching levels from late January. Earlier fears that miners were abandoning the network to pivot toward the artificial intelligence sector have proven premature, as the industry shows remarkable resilience.
Furthermore, the introduction of BIP-360 has addressed much of the uncertainty surrounding quantum computing threats. This proposal outlines a framework for post-quantum protection through a backwards-compatible soft fork. By removing the vulnerable key-path spend found in Taproot, the proposal hides public keys onchain until the moment of spending. 
This technological roadmap provides a clear path for bulls to regain the narrative, potentially forcing a short squeeze that could propel Bitcoin back above $70,000.
#BTC #bitcoin #bearishmomentum #TrendingTopic

They say history doesn't repeat, but it certainly rhymes. Those who have the "iron gut" to buy when the Fear & Greed Index hits a rock-bottom 9 are usually the ones laughing all the way to the bank while others are staring at red candles in a panic. 🏦💰
The Current Chaos 🌪️
Right now, the "noise" is deafening. Between the headlines about "Trump Tariffs" (now hiked to 15%!) and global economic jitters, the masses are hitting the "Sell" button.
But look closer:
BTC is Holding: While the world panics, Bitcoin is stubbornly sitting steady at $68,000. 🛡️
Smart Money is Silent: While retail traders "panic-sell," institutional accumulation hasn't stopped. 🐋
Extreme Fear = Opportunity: Historically, a reading of 9 is where generational wealth is built. 💎
How to Play This (The Pro Way) 🧠
Don't let FOMO or "FUD" (Fear, Uncertainty, Doubt) drive your decisions. If you're looking to build a position in $BTC, stop trying to catch the exact bottom with an "All-in" move.
DCA is King: Use Dollar Cost Averaging. 📉
Stay Liquid: Deploy small amounts weekly or during every 5% dip.
Long-Term Vision: The goal isn't to win the day; it's to win the cycle. 🏁

The Big Question 👇
The market is at a crossroads and the comment section is split. Are you a Bull or a Bear?
Are you buying the dip right now, or are you waiting for $60k before you jump back in?
Let me know your move below! 🗳️🚀