One of the most important factors needed for crypto to exit its bear cycle is slower inflation in the United States. That is only possible if fuel prices decline, which is exactly what Trump was trying to achieve when making concessions to Iran.
▫️The trend over the past few days is obvious: gasoline prices are moving lower 📉
✔️ The 2026 Versailles Treaty is beginning to bear fruit.
It went down a bit after my entry, so I’ll admit I got in a bit too early. But now on the chart I see that sellers are unable to break through the key support level.
I consider this retest a technical pullback that will setup for a BIG DUMP.
If you haven’t entered $ENA yet, this looks like a great entry point - much better than mine 👇
➡️ The $62-64k support zone is likely to be broken, but oscillators would then enter deeply oversold territory. Ideally, we'd also like to see a mass flip into shorts (funding rates are still positive, meaning longs still outnumber shorts).
At the same time, the major U.S. stock indices managed to hold their uptrends after the potentially dangerous FOMC meeting.
▪️The main risks continue to come from geopolitics. To preserve bullish sentiment in U.S. markets, Trump needs to complete his capitulation to Iran. This process may be complicated by heavy criticism of the "peace deal" - Trump's memorandum is being relentlessly mocked across American and global media, as well as social networks. The scale of the embarrassment and the resulting backlash could push the White House to reconsider its approach to the agreement.
For $BTC the next support zone lies at $59-61k. The probability of reaching that area is high, since $59k represents the lower boundary of a potential trading range.
As I've written many times before, uptrends rarely begin with a V-shaped reversal. More often, they are preceded by a period of consolidation within a narrow range, similar to what we saw from February to May. It is entirely possible that we'll spend some time ranging between $59-64k.
A move toward $51k also remains possible. In that case, a clear bullish divergence would form on the daily timeframes.
✔️ Our strategy for the coming months remains unchanged: trading from the long side on higher timeframes with the goal of already being positioned in a swing long when the macro trend eventually changes.
Trump’s gamble seems to have paid off - Kevin Warsh may have found the only way to deal with stubbornly high inflation without even hinting at rate hikes:
“We’ve dropped forward guidance.”
In other words, the Fed is no longer going to telegraph where rates are headed. Everything will be decided “meeting by meeting.”
Markets had been bracing for a more hawkish tone, so this was interpreted as surprisingly dovish. Stocks immediately ripped higher before giving back some gains.
The rest of the press conference barely mattered. Although one detail stood out: unlike Powell’s usual “Good afternoon,” the new Fed chair opened with a simple “Good day.” 😁
Now the real question is whether the hand hovering over the Sell button will start shaking.
Everyone knows inflation remains elevated. Everyone knows monetary policy is in a difficult spot. But everyone also knows that Trump is willing to do whatever it takes to prevent a market meltdown.
The worst-case scenario didn’t happen.
But nothing fundamentally improved either.
Markets were simply fed an illusion of stability - enough to calm investors down, at least for now.
P.S. Expect Trump and his talking heads, like Kevin Hassett, to reinforce Warsh’s dovish narrative in the coming days. The messaging campaign has only just begun. 📈👀
Trump called the Iran deal “one of the most incompetent ever signed.” Some words of wisdom 😅
And ironically, this line actually comes from a 2015 post where he was criticizing Obama’s nuclear agreement with Iran.
That deal required Iran to limit its nuclear program and allow inspections in exchange for sanctions relief. In 2018, Trump withdrew from the agreement, after which Iran gradually began rolling back its commitments, while tensions with Russia also deepened.
Now Trump is reportedly back with a new deal after the conflict with Iran. According to Axios, the US and Iran could sign a memorandum as early as today, with the main practical goal being to accelerate the reopening of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz - essentially reopening a route that was never fully closed.
Under the proposed framework, Iran would receive sanctions relief, access to frozen assets, eased oil exports, and a $300B reconstruction fund. Trump, however, has already denied that US funds would be directly involved, stating that investments would come from private companies or other countries.
In return, Iran would agree not to pursue nuclear weapons, while key nuclear disputes would be pushed into a final agreement within 60 days. Issues like Hezbollah and Iran’s ballistic missile program reportedly remain largely unaddressed.
So in short: exit the old deal, escalate into conflict, spend enormous resources, achieve limited structural change, then sign a new agreement and present it as a major victory.
History tends to remember these cycles - just not always in the way leaders expect.
We will se how the markets eill react ro these developments 👇