Zarrar_X 1
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Zarrar_X 1
DeFi Researcher || Crypto Analyst || Web3 explorer || one chart at a time.
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См. перевод
Hyperliquid Perpetual Futures Just Landed in Telegram | Powered by Omniston.
Perpetual futures just moved into Telegram and Omniston is handling the cross-chain leg that makes it possible.
WenLong brings Hyperliquid directly inside Telegram. Leveraged perps on crypto and tokenized assets, available in a few taps straight from a TON wallet. No separate app. No switching interfaces.
Here is where Omniston comes in. Opening a Hyperliquid position from Telegram means moving assets across chains first. WenLong uses Omniston to swap USDT on TON → USDC on Arbitrum, then routes it straight into a Hyperliquid deposit — all inside one flow. Users deposit in GRAM or USDT and go from a Telegram bot to an open leveraged position without ever leaving the app.
This is exactly what Omniston is built for. Quietly handling the cross-chain leg so builders can focus on the product experience instead of the infrastructure underneath.
If you are building a wallet, bot, or swap app and need to move assets between TON and other networks, the STONfi SDK and Omniston docs are where to start.
– Try Hyperliquid Perps on WenLong : https://t.me/whenlongbot
WenLong is a third-party app integrating STONfi infrastructure. STONfi is not affiliated with or responsible for their actions. Always DYOR before interacting with any third-party product.
$BTC $SUI #BTC Price Analysis# #Macro Insights# #Crypto
Perpetual futures just moved into Telegram and Omniston is handling the cross-chain leg that makes it possible.
WenLong brings Hyperliquid directly inside Telegram. Leveraged perps on crypto and tokenized assets, available in a few taps straight from a TON wallet. No separate app. No switching interfaces.
Here is where Omniston comes in. Opening a Hyperliquid position from Telegram means moving assets across chains first. WenLong uses Omniston to swap USDT on TON → USDC on Arbitrum, then routes it straight into a Hyperliquid deposit — all inside one flow. Users deposit in GRAM or USDT and go from a Telegram bot to an open leveraged position without ever leaving the app.
This is exactly what Omniston is built for. Quietly handling the cross-chain leg so builders can focus on the product experience instead of the infrastructure underneath.
If you are building a wallet, bot, or swap app and need to move assets between TON and other networks, the STONfi SDK and Omniston docs are where to start.
– Try Hyperliquid Perps on WenLong : https://t.me/whenlongbot
WenLong is a third-party app integrating STONfi infrastructure. STONfi is not affiliated with or responsible for their actions. Always DYOR before interacting with any third-party product.
$BTC $SUI #BTC Price Analysis# #Macro Insights# #Crypto
См. перевод
18 Years Ago Today, Bitcoin’s Digital Home Was Registered.
On August 18, 2008, the domain Bitcoin.org was registered, more than two months before the Bitcoin whitepaper was published and nearly five months before the Bitcoin network launched. The historical WHOIS record shows the domain was registered through AnonymousSpeech, a privacy-focused registration service.
Bitcoin.org itself states that the domain was originally registered and owned by Satoshi Nakamoto and Martti Malmi, Bitcoin's first two developers.
The timing is incredible. August 18, 2008: Bitcoin.org.
October 31, 2008: Bitcoin whitepaper.
January 3, 2009: Bitcoin genesis block.
What began as an anonymous domain registration eventually became the home of one of the most important technological experiments in financial history.
18 years later, Bitcoin is still here. And Satoshi's identity remains one of the biggest mysteries in technology.
Small correction to the screenshot's wording: the historical record supports the domain being associated with Satoshi, but the original WHOIS record itself lists AnonymousSpeech LLC as the registrant, so “Satoshi Nakamoto registered it” is best understood as historical attribution rather than what the raw WHOIS record literally says.
$BTC. #BTC Price Analysis# #MYSTERY #Macro Insights#
On August 18, 2008, the domain Bitcoin.org was registered, more than two months before the Bitcoin whitepaper was published and nearly five months before the Bitcoin network launched. The historical WHOIS record shows the domain was registered through AnonymousSpeech, a privacy-focused registration service.
Bitcoin.org itself states that the domain was originally registered and owned by Satoshi Nakamoto and Martti Malmi, Bitcoin's first two developers.
The timing is incredible. August 18, 2008: Bitcoin.org.
October 31, 2008: Bitcoin whitepaper.
January 3, 2009: Bitcoin genesis block.
What began as an anonymous domain registration eventually became the home of one of the most important technological experiments in financial history.
18 years later, Bitcoin is still here. And Satoshi's identity remains one of the biggest mysteries in technology.
Small correction to the screenshot's wording: the historical record supports the domain being associated with Satoshi, but the original WHOIS record itself lists AnonymousSpeech LLC as the registrant, so “Satoshi Nakamoto registered it” is best understood as historical attribution rather than what the raw WHOIS record literally says.
$BTC. #BTC Price Analysis# #MYSTERY #Macro Insights#
См. перевод
$BTC QUARTERLY BREAKDOWN 📊 | PART 2
Continuing our BTC top-down price action series. If you missed the yearly breakdown, you can check my page for Part 1.
Now let's zoom into the quarterly timeframe and see what the candles are actually telling us.
Q4 2025 was the big rejection. BTC pushed above $125K and printed a new ATH, but sellers stepped in hard and dragged price back toward the $87K area. That quarter marked a clear shift from the previous bullish expansion.
Then came Q1 2026. BTC opened around $87K, pushed toward $93K but failed to hold the move. Sellers took over again, sending price down toward the $68K area. No real reversal yet, just continued weakness.
Q2 2026 gave us another recovery attempt, with #BTC pushing back above $80K before getting rejected again. Price eventually dropped toward the $58K-$60K region, creating another lower high and lower low on the quarterly structure.
Now we're in Q3 2026, and this is where things get interesting. BTC has recovered from the $58K-$60K area and is currently around $64K, but the quarter is still unfinished. So I'm not calling this a reversal yet.
For the quarterly structure to start looking stronger, I'd want to see BTC reclaim $67.9K, then $75.6K, and eventually push through the $80K+ region.
For now, the quarterly structure remains bearish, but Q3 is showing a recovery attempt.
The big question is: Is Q3 building the foundation for a Q4 reversal, or is this just another recovery inside the larger bearish structure?
That's what we'll find out when we move down to the Monthly timeframe.
Big picture first. Entries later!
#BTC Price Analysis# #Macro Insights#
Continuing our BTC top-down price action series. If you missed the yearly breakdown, you can check my page for Part 1.
Now let's zoom into the quarterly timeframe and see what the candles are actually telling us.
Q4 2025 was the big rejection. BTC pushed above $125K and printed a new ATH, but sellers stepped in hard and dragged price back toward the $87K area. That quarter marked a clear shift from the previous bullish expansion.
Then came Q1 2026. BTC opened around $87K, pushed toward $93K but failed to hold the move. Sellers took over again, sending price down toward the $68K area. No real reversal yet, just continued weakness.
Q2 2026 gave us another recovery attempt, with #BTC pushing back above $80K before getting rejected again. Price eventually dropped toward the $58K-$60K region, creating another lower high and lower low on the quarterly structure.
Now we're in Q3 2026, and this is where things get interesting. BTC has recovered from the $58K-$60K area and is currently around $64K, but the quarter is still unfinished. So I'm not calling this a reversal yet.
For the quarterly structure to start looking stronger, I'd want to see BTC reclaim $67.9K, then $75.6K, and eventually push through the $80K+ region.
For now, the quarterly structure remains bearish, but Q3 is showing a recovery attempt.
The big question is: Is Q3 building the foundation for a Q4 reversal, or is this just another recovery inside the larger bearish structure?
That's what we'll find out when we move down to the Monthly timeframe.
Big picture first. Entries later!
#BTC Price Analysis# #Macro Insights#
См. перевод
$BTC YEARLY PRICE ACTION BREAKDOWN 📊
As decided by the community, we’re starting this new price action series with Bitcoin. Instead of jumping straight into support, resistance, and entries, we’re going to zoom out first and build the picture from the higher timeframes down.
Looking at the last 3 yearly candles, 2024 gave us a strong bullish expansion, with BTC pushing from the $40K area toward the $100K+ region. The yearly high around $107K and the close around $93K are important levels from that move, while the $38K-$42K area remains the major downside reference from the candle.
Then came 2025. BTC pushed above the previous yearly high and printed a new ATH around $125K, but the move was rejected and the candle closed back below its open. That creates an important resistance zone around $107K-$125K, with the $125K area standing out as the major rejection point.
Now we have the 2026 candle, and the story has changed. BTC is currently trading well below the yearly open, showing continued selling pressure after the rejection from the 2025 ATH. The key levels I'm watching from this yearly structure are around $75K, $87K, $93K, $97K and $107K above, while $42K and $38K remain the major levels below.
This is only the first step. We haven't reached the entry yet.
Next, we’ll move into the Quarterly timeframe and see how these yearly levels developed through the smaller structure before going further down to Monthly, Weekly, Daily and eventually the lower-timeframe entry zones.
Big picture first. Entries later!
#BTC Price Analysis# #Macro Insights# #Crypto
As decided by the community, we’re starting this new price action series with Bitcoin. Instead of jumping straight into support, resistance, and entries, we’re going to zoom out first and build the picture from the higher timeframes down.
Looking at the last 3 yearly candles, 2024 gave us a strong bullish expansion, with BTC pushing from the $40K area toward the $100K+ region. The yearly high around $107K and the close around $93K are important levels from that move, while the $38K-$42K area remains the major downside reference from the candle.
Then came 2025. BTC pushed above the previous yearly high and printed a new ATH around $125K, but the move was rejected and the candle closed back below its open. That creates an important resistance zone around $107K-$125K, with the $125K area standing out as the major rejection point.
Now we have the 2026 candle, and the story has changed. BTC is currently trading well below the yearly open, showing continued selling pressure after the rejection from the 2025 ATH. The key levels I'm watching from this yearly structure are around $75K, $87K, $93K, $97K and $107K above, while $42K and $38K remain the major levels below.
This is only the first step. We haven't reached the entry yet.
Next, we’ll move into the Quarterly timeframe and see how these yearly levels developed through the smaller structure before going further down to Monthly, Weekly, Daily and eventually the lower-timeframe entry zones.
Big picture first. Entries later!
#BTC Price Analysis# #Macro Insights# #Crypto
См. перевод
$ZEC is showing a clear rejection from the $515–$520 area, with sellers starting to regain control on the 1H chart. The recent push higher has not yet broken the larger supply zone around $520–$528.
A pullback toward the $485–$487 demand zone looks like the key move to watch. If buyers defend this area, it could provide the base for another attempt higher.
For the bullish continuation, #ZEC needs to reclaim $515+ and eventually break through the $520–$528 supply. That would open the door for a stronger continuation.
Until then, the cleaner roadmap is $515 rejection → $485–$487 retest → reaction. Losing that demand zone would weaken the setup and could send price deeper into the previous range.
#Macro Insights# #Altcoin Season#
A pullback toward the $485–$487 demand zone looks like the key move to watch. If buyers defend this area, it could provide the base for another attempt higher.
For the bullish continuation, #ZEC needs to reclaim $515+ and eventually break through the $520–$528 supply. That would open the door for a stronger continuation.
Until then, the cleaner roadmap is $515 rejection → $485–$487 retest → reaction. Losing that demand zone would weaken the setup and could send price deeper into the previous range.
#Macro Insights# #Altcoin Season#
См. перевод
🇺🇸 US Treasury Moves to Implement the GENIUS Act.
The U.S. Treasury is now seeking public feedback on rules for implementing the GENIUS Act, the landmark stablecoin law signed in July 2025. The proposed rules focus on defining when a stablecoin is considered issued in the U.S. and when companies are offering or selling stablecoins to U.S. users.
Under the framework, payment stablecoin issuers generally need an appropriate federal or state license. Digital asset platforms will also face restrictions around foreign-issued stablecoins unless those issuers can meet U.S. legal and regulatory requirements.
The law is expected to take effect on January 18, 2027, while some restrictions on offering unlicensed payment stablecoins to U.S. users come into effect later. Treasury is giving the public 60 days to submit comments after the proposal appears in the Federal Register.
This is another major step toward bringing stablecoins into a defined regulatory framework. For crypto, the bigger implication is that regulated dollar-backed stablecoins could become increasingly integrated into the U.S. financial system, while issuers and exchanges that don't meet the new requirements could face significant restrictions.
$BTC #Macro Insights# #Crypto
The U.S. Treasury is now seeking public feedback on rules for implementing the GENIUS Act, the landmark stablecoin law signed in July 2025. The proposed rules focus on defining when a stablecoin is considered issued in the U.S. and when companies are offering or selling stablecoins to U.S. users.
Under the framework, payment stablecoin issuers generally need an appropriate federal or state license. Digital asset platforms will also face restrictions around foreign-issued stablecoins unless those issuers can meet U.S. legal and regulatory requirements.
The law is expected to take effect on January 18, 2027, while some restrictions on offering unlicensed payment stablecoins to U.S. users come into effect later. Treasury is giving the public 60 days to submit comments after the proposal appears in the Federal Register.
This is another major step toward bringing stablecoins into a defined regulatory framework. For crypto, the bigger implication is that regulated dollar-backed stablecoins could become increasingly integrated into the U.S. financial system, while issuers and exchanges that don't meet the new requirements could face significant restrictions.
$BTC #Macro Insights# #Crypto
См. перевод
How to Access TON DeFi From Ethereum, BNB Chain, and Base.
Moving liquidity into TON DeFi from Ethereum, BNB Chain, or Base is no longer unusual. Choosing the right route is still the harder part.
Two paths exist. A bridge locks the source asset and issues a wrapped jetton on TON. An atomic-swap through Omniston delivers a native TON asset directly through paired HTLCs. Both get value across chains. They leave you with very different things at the destination.
The bridge path makes sense when a specific TON protocol requires that wrapped jetton. For most users the real goal is usable value on TON in a form that can be deployed immediately. That is what Omniston is built around.
You sign a quote request for the asset you want on TON. Resolvers compete via RFQ to fill it. Both sides settle atomically once the secret is revealed. If the resolver never responds, you get refunded by timelock. No path exists where both parties lose funds. The quote shown at confirmation is the price that executes — no drift between approval and settlement.
Three situations where moving into TON makes sense. You want to rebalance in a lower-fee environment. You want exposure to TON-native tokens that exist nowhere else. Or you want to diversify liquidity provision across ecosystems.
Once native TON assets arrive, STONfi handles the rest swaps, liquidity pools, and farming programs.
–Read the Full Guide : https://blog.ston.fi/how-to-access-ton-defi-from-ethereum-bnb-chain-and-base/
–Try Cross-Chain Swaps on STONfi : https://app.ston.fi/swap?mode=cross-chain&in=ton%3AUSD%E2%82%AE
$BTC $XRP. #BTC Price Analysis# #Crypto #Macro Insights#
Moving liquidity into TON DeFi from Ethereum, BNB Chain, or Base is no longer unusual. Choosing the right route is still the harder part.
Two paths exist. A bridge locks the source asset and issues a wrapped jetton on TON. An atomic-swap through Omniston delivers a native TON asset directly through paired HTLCs. Both get value across chains. They leave you with very different things at the destination.
The bridge path makes sense when a specific TON protocol requires that wrapped jetton. For most users the real goal is usable value on TON in a form that can be deployed immediately. That is what Omniston is built around.
You sign a quote request for the asset you want on TON. Resolvers compete via RFQ to fill it. Both sides settle atomically once the secret is revealed. If the resolver never responds, you get refunded by timelock. No path exists where both parties lose funds. The quote shown at confirmation is the price that executes — no drift between approval and settlement.
Three situations where moving into TON makes sense. You want to rebalance in a lower-fee environment. You want exposure to TON-native tokens that exist nowhere else. Or you want to diversify liquidity provision across ecosystems.
Once native TON assets arrive, STONfi handles the rest swaps, liquidity pools, and farming programs.
–Read the Full Guide : https://blog.ston.fi/how-to-access-ton-defi-from-ethereum-bnb-chain-and-base/
–Try Cross-Chain Swaps on STONfi : https://app.ston.fi/swap?mode=cross-chain&in=ton%3AUSD%E2%82%AE
$BTC $XRP. #BTC Price Analysis# #Crypto #Macro Insights#
Запас «потерянного» биткоина только что достиг рекордного уровня.
Аналитик CryptoQuant Darkfost говорит, что 3,56 млн BTC бездействуют уже более 10 лет — это примерно 17,7% от оборотного предложения Bitcoin. За последние 30 дней в эту «спящую» когорту вошли около 14 000 BTC.
Это важно, потому что монеты, которые не трогали в течение десятилетия, все чаще могут включать потерянные ключи, забытые кошельки или крайне преданных долгосрочных держателей. В любом случае, они не входят в активно торгуемое предложение Bitcoin.
Если значимая часть этих BTC действительно не подлежит восстановлению, эффективное доступное предложение Bitcoin может оказаться существенно меньше, чем предполагает громкая цифра оборотного предложения. Это создаёт интересную динамику предложения: меньше BTC доступно для продажи — и относительно умеренный спрос может оказать больший эффект, когда давление покупок вернётся.
Но есть важное различие: «потерянный» не обязательно значит «доказуемо потерянный». Возможно, часть этих 3,56 млн BTC по-прежнему контролируется держателями, которые просто не перемещали свои монеты годами.
В любом случае, число усиливает один из самых сильных сюжетов дефицита Bitcoin: максимальное предложение в 21 млн — это не то же самое, что объём BTC, который на самом деле будет доступен рынку.
$BTC #BTC Price Analysis# #BTC #Macro Insights#
Аналитик CryptoQuant Darkfost говорит, что 3,56 млн BTC бездействуют уже более 10 лет — это примерно 17,7% от оборотного предложения Bitcoin. За последние 30 дней в эту «спящую» когорту вошли около 14 000 BTC.
Это важно, потому что монеты, которые не трогали в течение десятилетия, все чаще могут включать потерянные ключи, забытые кошельки или крайне преданных долгосрочных держателей. В любом случае, они не входят в активно торгуемое предложение Bitcoin.
Если значимая часть этих BTC действительно не подлежит восстановлению, эффективное доступное предложение Bitcoin может оказаться существенно меньше, чем предполагает громкая цифра оборотного предложения. Это создаёт интересную динамику предложения: меньше BTC доступно для продажи — и относительно умеренный спрос может оказать больший эффект, когда давление покупок вернётся.
Но есть важное различие: «потерянный» не обязательно значит «доказуемо потерянный». Возможно, часть этих 3,56 млн BTC по-прежнему контролируется держателями, которые просто не перемещали свои монеты годами.
В любом случае, число усиливает один из самых сильных сюжетов дефицита Bitcoin: максимальное предложение в 21 млн — это не то же самое, что объём BTC, который на самом деле будет доступен рынку.
$BTC #BTC Price Analysis# #BTC #Macro Insights#
См. перевод
🇦🇪 Abu Dhabi Just Held Through the Bitcoin Dip.
Abu Dhabi’s sovereign wealth funds are showing serious conviction in Bitcoin. Mubadala and the Abu Dhabi Investment Council kept their combined $763.7M position in BlackRock’s $IBIT unchanged, even as Bitcoin fell sharply from its 2025 highs.
Mubadala holds about $490M worth of IBIT, making Bitcoin its second-largest reported U.S. portfolio position, while ADIC holds roughly $273.6M, its largest reported position. The key detail is that neither fund reduced its share count during Q2.
That doesn't mean Abu Dhabi bought $764M of Bitcoin during the dip. Their holdings were worth about $881M at the end of March, so the decline reflects Bitcoin's price falling while the funds simply held their positions.
And there may be more exposure that isn't visible in these filings. 13F reports only cover certain U.S.-listed securities, meaning they cannot confirm or rule out direct Bitcoin holdings. Arkham has also previously attributed roughly 6,782 BTC to mining wallets linked to the UAE's Royal Group.
The message is simple: Abu Dhabi isn't treating the Bitcoin dip as a reason to run. They're sitting through it.
$BTC $LINK #BTC Price Analysis# #Dubai #Macro Insights#
Abu Dhabi’s sovereign wealth funds are showing serious conviction in Bitcoin. Mubadala and the Abu Dhabi Investment Council kept their combined $763.7M position in BlackRock’s $IBIT unchanged, even as Bitcoin fell sharply from its 2025 highs.
Mubadala holds about $490M worth of IBIT, making Bitcoin its second-largest reported U.S. portfolio position, while ADIC holds roughly $273.6M, its largest reported position. The key detail is that neither fund reduced its share count during Q2.
That doesn't mean Abu Dhabi bought $764M of Bitcoin during the dip. Their holdings were worth about $881M at the end of March, so the decline reflects Bitcoin's price falling while the funds simply held their positions.
And there may be more exposure that isn't visible in these filings. 13F reports only cover certain U.S.-listed securities, meaning they cannot confirm or rule out direct Bitcoin holdings. Arkham has also previously attributed roughly 6,782 BTC to mining wallets linked to the UAE's Royal Group.
The message is simple: Abu Dhabi isn't treating the Bitcoin dip as a reason to run. They're sitting through it.
$BTC $LINK #BTC Price Analysis# #Dubai #Macro Insights#
См. перевод
A NEW WAY TO LOOK AT THE MARKET.
I’m adding something new to my market analysis, but we’re not abandoning the usual style.
The regular analysis will continue as usual: looking at the trend direction, identifying key support and resistance levels, and highlighting potential entry zones. This will still apply to newer tokens and assets that may not have years of price history.
But for established assets with enough historical data, I want to take things a step further.
I’m introducing a new Top-Down Price Action Series where we’ll break an asset down from the bigger picture:
Yearly → Quarterly → Monthly → Weekly → Daily → Lower Timeframes.
We’ll study the historical price action at each level before zooming in to identify possible entry zones.
The idea is simple: instead of only looking at where price is right now, let’s understand the bigger picture first, then work our way down.
I’m thinking of starting this series with BTC, but I want your opinion.
Which asset should we start with?
$LINK $BEAT
Let’s see what you guys choose.
#BTC Price Analysis# #Altcoin Season# #Macro Insights#
I’m adding something new to my market analysis, but we’re not abandoning the usual style.
The regular analysis will continue as usual: looking at the trend direction, identifying key support and resistance levels, and highlighting potential entry zones. This will still apply to newer tokens and assets that may not have years of price history.
But for established assets with enough historical data, I want to take things a step further.
I’m introducing a new Top-Down Price Action Series where we’ll break an asset down from the bigger picture:
Yearly → Quarterly → Monthly → Weekly → Daily → Lower Timeframes.
We’ll study the historical price action at each level before zooming in to identify possible entry zones.
The idea is simple: instead of only looking at where price is right now, let’s understand the bigger picture first, then work our way down.
I’m thinking of starting this series with BTC, but I want your opinion.
Which asset should we start with?
$LINK $BEAT
Let’s see what you guys choose.
#BTC Price Analysis# #Altcoin Season# #Macro Insights#
$1M Bitcoin by 2030 Is “Mathematically Impossible,” Says 10x Research.
Достичь $1 миллиона по биткоину к 2030 году, по данным главы 10x Research Маркуса Тилена, означало бы привлечь огромное количество нового капитала. При том, что BTC торгуется примерно у $63 868, а рыночная капитализация составляет около $1,28 трлн, он оценивает потребность в дополнительных ~$15 трлн капитала, чтобы прийти к целевому уровню $1M.
Тилен утверждает, что исторические притоки капитала в биткоин не подтверждают такой график. На более высоких оценках требуются все более крупные суммы денег, чтобы существенно поднять цену, из-за чего скачок к $1M в течение четырех лет становится крайне сложной задачей.
Он также предостерегает от предположения, что биткоин быстро повторит предыдущие циклы. Даже возврат в район $100K, по его мнению, уже будет значительным достижением по сравнению с текущими уровнями.
Тем не менее, говорить о $1M как о «математически невозможном» — это скорее аргумент про движение капитала, чем математическое доказательство. Цена биткоина не определяется простым один-к-одному соотношением между рыночной капитализацией и притоком свежих денег в актив. На результат могут влиять изменения ликвидности, поведение держателей, динамика предложения и мультипликаторы оценки.
Так что реальный вопрос не в том, является ли $1M биткоин математически невозможным. Вопрос в том, сможет ли в реальности к 2030 году поддержать такую оценку $15 трлн дополнительной экономической ценности и достаточный уровень спроса.
$BTC #BTC Price Analysis# #Macro Insights# #Crypto
Достичь $1 миллиона по биткоину к 2030 году, по данным главы 10x Research Маркуса Тилена, означало бы привлечь огромное количество нового капитала. При том, что BTC торгуется примерно у $63 868, а рыночная капитализация составляет около $1,28 трлн, он оценивает потребность в дополнительных ~$15 трлн капитала, чтобы прийти к целевому уровню $1M.
Тилен утверждает, что исторические притоки капитала в биткоин не подтверждают такой график. На более высоких оценках требуются все более крупные суммы денег, чтобы существенно поднять цену, из-за чего скачок к $1M в течение четырех лет становится крайне сложной задачей.
Он также предостерегает от предположения, что биткоин быстро повторит предыдущие циклы. Даже возврат в район $100K, по его мнению, уже будет значительным достижением по сравнению с текущими уровнями.
Тем не менее, говорить о $1M как о «математически невозможном» — это скорее аргумент про движение капитала, чем математическое доказательство. Цена биткоина не определяется простым один-к-одному соотношением между рыночной капитализацией и притоком свежих денег в актив. На результат могут влиять изменения ликвидности, поведение держателей, динамика предложения и мультипликаторы оценки.
Так что реальный вопрос не в том, является ли $1M биткоин математически невозможным. Вопрос в том, сможет ли в реальности к 2030 году поддержать такую оценку $15 трлн дополнительной экономической ценности и достаточный уровень спроса.
$BTC #BTC Price Analysis# #Macro Insights# #Crypto
См. перевод
$LINK is showing strong 1H momentum after breaking out of the $8.70-$9.00 consolidation area.
Price is now around $9.44, with the recent impulse pushing toward the $9.70-$9.85 supply area. The broader short-term structure remains bullish, and current market data also shows #LINK holding above $9 after a strong move this week.
The main thing to watch here is whether LINK can sustain above $9.40-$9.50. A clean push through $9.70-$9.85 could extend the move toward $10.00-$10.20, while rejection around that ceiling would make a retracement increasingly likely.
The marked $8.70-$8.85 demand zone is the key area on this chart. That's where the previous breakout structure began to develop, so a deeper pullback into that region could provide the strongest opportunity for buyers to defend the trend. Losing $8.70 would weaken the current bullish structure and potentially send LINK back toward $8.40-$8.50.
For now, the setup is bullish but extended. I wouldn't chase aggressively into the upper resistance; either a confirmed breakout above $9.85 or a controlled pullback into support offers a cleaner risk profile.
#Macro Insights# #AltcoinSeason
Price is now around $9.44, with the recent impulse pushing toward the $9.70-$9.85 supply area. The broader short-term structure remains bullish, and current market data also shows #LINK holding above $9 after a strong move this week.
The main thing to watch here is whether LINK can sustain above $9.40-$9.50. A clean push through $9.70-$9.85 could extend the move toward $10.00-$10.20, while rejection around that ceiling would make a retracement increasingly likely.
The marked $8.70-$8.85 demand zone is the key area on this chart. That's where the previous breakout structure began to develop, so a deeper pullback into that region could provide the strongest opportunity for buyers to defend the trend. Losing $8.70 would weaken the current bullish structure and potentially send LINK back toward $8.40-$8.50.
For now, the setup is bullish but extended. I wouldn't chase aggressively into the upper resistance; either a confirmed breakout above $9.85 or a controlled pullback into support offers a cleaner risk profile.
#Macro Insights# #AltcoinSeason
См. перевод
STONfi Goes Live August 20 | Gram Wallet Is Coming and Builders Are Ready.
Telegram is preparing to launch a native non-custodial Gram Wallet. The question is what gets built on top of it, and that conversation is happening live on August 20.
STONfi is hosting a live discussion with WenLong, Gram Store, and DTrade to look at what is already being built and what could come next for Telegram-native crypto products.
– August 20 · 15:00 UTC
What the session covers:
> What the next generation of Telegram-native crypto products could look like
> What these teams are building and how users experience their products
> What builders are expecting from the Gram Wallet launch
> How STONfi infrastructure works underneath it all
A live community poll runs during the session — your answers become part of the discussion.
There is also 150 STON up for grabs. A question drops at the end of the stream. Answer it under the official X post before August 21 at 15:00 UTC to win:
> Best answer gets 70 STON
> 2 random winners get 40 STON each
- Register for the Event : https://luma.com/5c0t5b88
$LINK $ACE #Macro Insights# #Crypto #AltcoinSeason
Telegram is preparing to launch a native non-custodial Gram Wallet. The question is what gets built on top of it, and that conversation is happening live on August 20.
STONfi is hosting a live discussion with WenLong, Gram Store, and DTrade to look at what is already being built and what could come next for Telegram-native crypto products.
– August 20 · 15:00 UTC
What the session covers:
> What the next generation of Telegram-native crypto products could look like
> What these teams are building and how users experience their products
> What builders are expecting from the Gram Wallet launch
> How STONfi infrastructure works underneath it all
A live community poll runs during the session — your answers become part of the discussion.
There is also 150 STON up for grabs. A question drops at the end of the stream. Answer it under the official X post before August 21 at 15:00 UTC to win:
> Best answer gets 70 STON
> 2 random winners get 40 STON each
- Register for the Event : https://luma.com/5c0t5b88
$LINK $ACE #Macro Insights# #Crypto #AltcoinSeason
AKE демонстрирует параболическое расширение на 1H: цена резко вырывается примерно от $0.004 до недавнего максимума около $0.0128, а затем откатывается к $0.0108.
Ключевая зона, за которой стоит следить — диапазон $0.0062-$0.0070 спроса, отмеченный на графике. Если ралли потребуется более глубокий откат, то это основной регион, где покупатели могут попытаться восстановить структуру. Более неглубокий откат в районе $0.0080-$0.0090 также может дать более раннюю реакцию, но потеря этой области сделает вероятность более глубокого ретеста выше.
Для продолжения $AKE нужно вернуть и удержаться выше примерно $0.0115-$0.0120; недавний максимум $0.0128 выступает в роли ближайшего потолка. Чистый пробой выше этого уровня может открыть путь к $0.0140-$0.0160, тогда как повторные отказы будут поддерживать сценарий еще одного снижения.
После расширения на 1H более чем на 60% погоня за текущей свечой несет повышенный риск. Более чистая картина — либо контролируемый откат с удержанием поддержки, либо подтвержденный пробой и ретест. Ориентир: бычья структура, но в краткосрочной перспективе она сильно перегрета.
#Макро выводы# #Крипто #Сезон Альткоинов#
Ключевая зона, за которой стоит следить — диапазон $0.0062-$0.0070 спроса, отмеченный на графике. Если ралли потребуется более глубокий откат, то это основной регион, где покупатели могут попытаться восстановить структуру. Более неглубокий откат в районе $0.0080-$0.0090 также может дать более раннюю реакцию, но потеря этой области сделает вероятность более глубокого ретеста выше.
Для продолжения $AKE нужно вернуть и удержаться выше примерно $0.0115-$0.0120; недавний максимум $0.0128 выступает в роли ближайшего потолка. Чистый пробой выше этого уровня может открыть путь к $0.0140-$0.0160, тогда как повторные отказы будут поддерживать сценарий еще одного снижения.
После расширения на 1H более чем на 60% погоня за текущей свечой несет повышенный риск. Более чистая картина — либо контролируемый откат с удержанием поддержки, либо подтвержденный пробой и ретест. Ориентир: бычья структура, но в краткосрочной перспективе она сильно перегрета.
#Макро выводы# #Крипто #Сезон Альткоинов#
См. перевод
Binance Moves to Block HTX and 10+ Exchanges Under EU Sanctions.
Binance is tightening its compliance controls, announcing plans to block transactions involving 16 crypto exchanges and service providers, including major exchange HTX (formerly Huobi). The move follows regulatory actions tied to allegations of helping Russia circumvent sanctions.
The restrictions are being introduced in stages, with several platforms already affected and additional entities scheduled to be blocked from August 23. Binance says transactions involving the listed entities could trigger compliance reviews and potentially lead to wallet restrictions.
The development highlights how quickly geopolitical sanctions are spreading into crypto infrastructure. Even centralized exchanges operating globally are increasingly required to restrict counterparties connected to sanctioned jurisdictions or activities.
For Binance users, the key takeaway is simple: avoid sending or receiving funds involving the listed platforms after their respective cutoff dates, as such transactions may face additional compliance checks or restrictions.
$BTC. #BTC Price Analysis# #BNBChain# #Crypto
Binance is tightening its compliance controls, announcing plans to block transactions involving 16 crypto exchanges and service providers, including major exchange HTX (formerly Huobi). The move follows regulatory actions tied to allegations of helping Russia circumvent sanctions.
The restrictions are being introduced in stages, with several platforms already affected and additional entities scheduled to be blocked from August 23. Binance says transactions involving the listed entities could trigger compliance reviews and potentially lead to wallet restrictions.
The development highlights how quickly geopolitical sanctions are spreading into crypto infrastructure. Even centralized exchanges operating globally are increasingly required to restrict counterparties connected to sanctioned jurisdictions or activities.
For Binance users, the key takeaway is simple: avoid sending or receiving funds involving the listed platforms after their respective cutoff dates, as such transactions may face additional compliance checks or restrictions.
$BTC. #BTC Price Analysis# #BNBChain# #Crypto
$ACE перешёл в параболическое расширение 1H, совершив скачок более чем на 100% и закрепляясь в зоне $0.25. Моментум крайне сильный, но расстояние от предыдущего основания делает всё более вероятным движение на охлаждение.
Ключевой уровень сейчас — $0.18–$0.20. Откат, который удержит этот диапазон, может превратить прошлый пробой в поддержку и дать покупателям более здоровую базу для продолжения.
Если #ACE стабилизируется выше этой зоны, следующая крупная цель — примерно $0.28–$0.30, где на графике видится сопротивление сверху. Чистый пробой может продлить движение, но догонять такую вертикальную ралли-связку несёт более высокий риск.
Пока что следите за откатом, а не за пампом. Удержание $0.18–$0.20 сохраняет бычью структуру, тогда как потеря этого уровня будет означать, что движению нужен более глубокий рестарт.
#Macro Insights# #Altcoin Season#
Ключевой уровень сейчас — $0.18–$0.20. Откат, который удержит этот диапазон, может превратить прошлый пробой в поддержку и дать покупателям более здоровую базу для продолжения.
Если #ACE стабилизируется выше этой зоны, следующая крупная цель — примерно $0.28–$0.30, где на графике видится сопротивление сверху. Чистый пробой может продлить движение, но догонять такую вертикальную ралли-связку несёт более высокий риск.
Пока что следите за откатом, а не за пампом. Удержание $0.18–$0.20 сохраняет бычью структуру, тогда как потеря этого уровня будет означать, что движению нужен более глубокий рестарт.
#Macro Insights# #Altcoin Season#
См. перевод
STONfi Leads TON DeFi With ~78% of All DEX Swap Volume.
The numbers just dropped and they are worth paying attention to.
STONfi holds approximately 78% of all TON DEX swap volume, nearly 5x more than the second-place venue. And roughly 59% of DEX users on TON, about 1.6x more than the runner-up.
What the stats do not fully capture is Omniston. By aggregating TON liquidity across multiple sources, STONfi's real contribution to swap execution on TON is broader than any single venue metric shows. That makes STONfi not just the leading DEX on TON, but one of the core execution layers of the entire ecosystem.
Thanks to everyone swapping, building, and growing with us. There is more ahead.
Swap on STONfi : app.ston.fi
$LAB $VELVET #Macro Insights# #TON #Meme Alpha#
The numbers just dropped and they are worth paying attention to.
STONfi holds approximately 78% of all TON DEX swap volume, nearly 5x more than the second-place venue. And roughly 59% of DEX users on TON, about 1.6x more than the runner-up.
What the stats do not fully capture is Omniston. By aggregating TON liquidity across multiple sources, STONfi's real contribution to swap execution on TON is broader than any single venue metric shows. That makes STONfi not just the leading DEX on TON, but one of the core execution layers of the entire ecosystem.
Thanks to everyone swapping, building, and growing with us. There is more ahead.
Swap on STONfi : app.ston.fi
$LAB $VELVET #Macro Insights# #TON #Meme Alpha#
См. перевод
Cross-Chain Swaps Are Not a Feature Anymore | They Are the New Default.
For a while most DeFi activity lived on one network. Then the ecosystem fragmented across dozens of chains and everything changed.
Total Value Locked is now spread across Ethereum, multiple Layer 2s, BNB Chain, Solana, TON, and a long tail of newer chains. The same asset exists on fifteen or more chains simultaneously. Yield gaps between chains are large enough to justify moving capital regularly. Mainstream wallets already support multiple chains by default.
A platform reachable from only one chain is reachable from only one chain, no matter how efficient the AMM or how generous the incentives.
Three mechanisms handle cross-chain movement and their risk profiles are not interchangeable.
Bridges lock the token on the source chain and mint a wrapped version on the destination. Fast and practical. The bridge contract holds custody the entire time, concentrated custody risk that bridge exploits have repeatedly proven is real.
Peer-to-peer atomic swaps use HTLCs so no third party holds anything. Most trustless option by design. The problem is practical, both parties need to show up before the clock runs out.
Resolver-based HTLC networks solve that bottleneck. A user matches with a professional resolver via RFQ and both sides settle through paired HTLCs. Only three outcomes, both receive their target asset, both retain their original asset, or both refunds execute. No path exists where both parties lose funds.
This is Omniston's design. No bridge contract, no wrapped token, user custody throughout. Phase 1 EVM coverage spans Ethereum, BNB Chain, Base, and Polygon. For TON-native swaps, STONfi handles everything without any cross-chain step.
- Read the Full Article : https://blog.ston.fi/cross-chain-swaps-is-not-a-feature-its-the-new-default-for-defi/
#Macro Insights# #TON #Meme Alpha#
$HYPE $GRAM
For a while most DeFi activity lived on one network. Then the ecosystem fragmented across dozens of chains and everything changed.
Total Value Locked is now spread across Ethereum, multiple Layer 2s, BNB Chain, Solana, TON, and a long tail of newer chains. The same asset exists on fifteen or more chains simultaneously. Yield gaps between chains are large enough to justify moving capital regularly. Mainstream wallets already support multiple chains by default.
A platform reachable from only one chain is reachable from only one chain, no matter how efficient the AMM or how generous the incentives.
Three mechanisms handle cross-chain movement and their risk profiles are not interchangeable.
Bridges lock the token on the source chain and mint a wrapped version on the destination. Fast and practical. The bridge contract holds custody the entire time, concentrated custody risk that bridge exploits have repeatedly proven is real.
Peer-to-peer atomic swaps use HTLCs so no third party holds anything. Most trustless option by design. The problem is practical, both parties need to show up before the clock runs out.
Resolver-based HTLC networks solve that bottleneck. A user matches with a professional resolver via RFQ and both sides settle through paired HTLCs. Only three outcomes, both receive their target asset, both retain their original asset, or both refunds execute. No path exists where both parties lose funds.
This is Omniston's design. No bridge contract, no wrapped token, user custody throughout. Phase 1 EVM coverage spans Ethereum, BNB Chain, Base, and Polygon. For TON-native swaps, STONfi handles everything without any cross-chain step.
- Read the Full Article : https://blog.ston.fi/cross-chain-swaps-is-not-a-feature-its-the-new-default-for-defi/
#Macro Insights# #TON #Meme Alpha#
$HYPE $GRAM
См. перевод
Inflation Cooled, so Why Didn't BTC Break Out? Macro Analysis.
July's CPI report landed exactly at expectations (3.4% headline, 2.5% core), yet $BTC slipped back toward $63,500. Three factors are holding the price back:
> Priced In: In-line CPI removes downside risk but provides zero surprise to trigger a buy-side squeeze.
> Neutral Liquidity: A rate pause isn't active quantitative easing. Without direct Fed balance sheet expansion, macro liquidity stays flat.
> Overhead Wall & Delay: BTC has failed six attempts to close above the $65,000–$65,500 resistance zone, while the Senate's delay of the CLARITY Act keeps institutional capital on the sidelines.
Until spot ETF inflows surge or #BTC closes above $65,500, price remains locked in consolidation.
$BTC #BTC Price Analysis# #Macro Insights#
July's CPI report landed exactly at expectations (3.4% headline, 2.5% core), yet $BTC slipped back toward $63,500. Three factors are holding the price back:
> Priced In: In-line CPI removes downside risk but provides zero surprise to trigger a buy-side squeeze.
> Neutral Liquidity: A rate pause isn't active quantitative easing. Without direct Fed balance sheet expansion, macro liquidity stays flat.
> Overhead Wall & Delay: BTC has failed six attempts to close above the $65,000–$65,500 resistance zone, while the Senate's delay of the CLARITY Act keeps institutional capital on the sidelines.
Until spot ETF inflows surge or #BTC closes above $65,500, price remains locked in consolidation.
$BTC #BTC Price Analysis# #Macro Insights#
$PI консолидируется вокруг $0.088, при этом структура 1H демонстрирует повторяющиеся реакции в зоне спроса $0.0845–$0.0863. Продавцы сейчас давят цену вниз, поэтому эта область — ключевой уровень, за которым стоит следить.
Продавливание в эту зону спроса с последующим сильным возвратом на 1H может подготовить следующую волну отскока. Первый барьер находится в районе $0.0922–$0.0935, где недавнему движению цен не удавалось устойчиво удерживаться выше.
Если покупатели вернут контроль, главный восходящий ориентир расположен на $0.0922–$0.0935 — это совпадает с отмеченной зоной предложения. Именно там восстановление будет подвергнуто главной проверке.
Сценарий в целом выглядит так: спрос → возврат → $0.090 → $0.0922–$0.0935. Однако если уровень $0.0850 будет пробит чисто, бычий план ослабевает, и могут появиться более низкие уровни.
#PiNetwork #Altcoin Season# #MarketAnalysis
Продавливание в эту зону спроса с последующим сильным возвратом на 1H может подготовить следующую волну отскока. Первый барьер находится в районе $0.0922–$0.0935, где недавнему движению цен не удавалось устойчиво удерживаться выше.
Если покупатели вернут контроль, главный восходящий ориентир расположен на $0.0922–$0.0935 — это совпадает с отмеченной зоной предложения. Именно там восстановление будет подвергнуто главной проверке.
Сценарий в целом выглядит так: спрос → возврат → $0.090 → $0.0922–$0.0935. Однако если уровень $0.0850 будет пробит чисто, бычий план ослабевает, и могут появиться более низкие уровни.
#PiNetwork #Altcoin Season# #MarketAnalysis
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