$TRX 📍 Current Status: 0.29404 | 24h Change: -6.20% 📉
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🎯 QUICK SUMMARY & BIAS
· Primary Bias: SHORT (On any bounce)
· Strategy: Sell the Rally, Buy the Crash
· Market State: Strong downtrend, extremely oversold. Looking for a dead cat bounce to short into.
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🕵️ DEEP CHART & INDICATOR ANALYSIS
📊 Price Action & Candlesticks:
· Price is in a strong downtrend with lower highs and lower lows on all timeframes.
· It has broken below multiple key support levels and is currently trading near the 24h low of $0.29198.
· Watch for any bear flag or descending triangle pattern on the 5m/15m charts for continuation.
📈 Technical Indicators (Multi-Timeframe):
· EMA Ribbon (15m/1h): All key EMAs (10, 20, 50, 100, 200) are aligned BEARISHLY ✅ with price trading well below them. The EMA(10) around 0.29682 acts as immediate dynamic resistance.
· RSI (14): Reading 16.28 (1h) and 22.05 (15m). This is EXTREMELY OVERSOLD 🚩. While this suggests a bounce is due, it can stay oversold in a strong downtrend. Do not catch the falling knife!
· MACD (1h): Bearish and strengthening. The DIF is below the DEA, and the histogram is negative (-0.00419). This confirms strong downward momentum.
· Bollinger Bands (1h): Price is trading at the Lower Band (DN: ~0.29730) and has broken below it. This indicates strong selling pressure. Any bounce towards the Middle Band (MB: ~0.31430) would be a gift for shorts.
🧠 Smart Money / ICT Concepts:
· Fair Value Gap (FVG): On the 1h and 4h charts, there are several large FVGs created during the crash ABOVE the current price. The most significant one is between 0.3000 and 0.3050. This is a "magnet" for price to retrace to fill the imbalance before continuing down.
· Order Block: The breakdown and consolidation point around 0.3150 - 0.3200 is a major bearish order block. This is your "prime zone" for short entries.
· Divergence: Currently, NO significant bullish divergence is spotted on the RSI or MACD. The move down is still supported by momentum. Do not try to bottom pick.
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📊 ON-CHAIN & FUTURES DATA
· Funding Rate: SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE ❄️ (Currently -0.03154%). This is BEARISH in a downtrend. It indicates there are still some longs hanging on, providing fuel for further liquidation.
· Open Interest (OI): OI has been relatively STABLE ➡️ during the price decline. This is a BEARISH signal. It suggests the downtrend is being driven by LONG LIQUIDATIONS rather than new short positions. When these longs are fully liquidated, the trend may exhaust.
· Taker Buy/Sell Volume: The latest data shows significant SELL VOLUME dominating, confirming the bearish pressure.
· Spot Netflow: Largely NEGATIVE (-$9.34M on 1h). This is the ONLY bullish sign. Coins are flowing OFF exchanges 🚀, indicating accumulation at lower levels. However, this is a long-term signal and may not affect short-term scalps.
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🎯 TRADING PLAN & SIGNAL
$TRX WARNING: The market is EXTREMELY OVERSOLD. A sharp, violent bounce can happen at any moment. We will short the bounce, not the breakdown.
1. SHORT SETUP (Primary Trade - High Probability):
· Entry Zone: 0.2980 - 0.3010 (Confluence with the FVG and EMA(10))
· Ideal Entry: 0.2995
· Stop Loss: 0.3035 (Above the FVG and key resistance)
· Take Profit Targets:
· TP1: 0.2940 (Recent low)
· TP2: 0.2920 (24h Low)
· TP3: 0.2900 (Psychological level)
2. AGGRESSIVE LONG SETUP (Counter-Trend, Very High Risk):
· Only if you see a clear bullish divergence on the RSI (14) on the 5m or 15m chart AND a strong bullish engulfing candle.
· Entry: 0.2925
· Stop Loss: 0.2910 (Below the 24h low)
· Take Profit: 0.2970 (Quick scalp, do not be greedy)
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💡 Trading Psychology & Risk Management
· The trend is your friend. Do not try to be a hero and buy the bottom in a strong downtrend.
· Patience is key. Wait for the price to retrace to your predefined short entry zone. Chasing the move down here is dangerous.
· The oversold RSI is a warning, not a signal. It tells you to be cautious, not to reverse your position.
· This is a SCALP. In and out. The 4h chart is bearish, so the overall trend is down.
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$TRX "Trade the trend, not the hope."
#TRX #USDT #Scalping #Crypto #TradingSignal #BINANCE #TechnicalAnalysis #SHORT #Downtrend 🔻
#MarketRebound #CPIWatch #APRBinanceTGE #ChineseMemeCoinWave ---
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always do your own research (DYOR) and trade at your own risk.