Everyoneās getting excited over a small green candleā¦ but zoom out. BTC is not done going lower yet. This bounce looks attractive, but the volume tells a different story.
88K held, a quick pop came in, and suddenly FOMO kicks in. Thatās exactly where most retail traders get trapped. Smart money doesnāt buy emotions ā they buy liquidity.
Iām looking at the 15-min structure, and the message is simple:
This is a reaction, not a reversal.
š What the chart is really saying (SMC view)
ā¢ Structure still bearish
Lower highs are intact. No real break of structure yet.
Key line in the sand: 89,644
Until BTC breaks and holds above this level with strong volume, upside moves are just pullbacks.
ā¢ FVG zone acting as a trap
The move up into 88,900 ā 89,500 looks like a Fair Value Gap refill.
This zone is not for retail to āescape lossesā ā itās where institutions reload shorts.
Weak pushes + long wicks here = danger.
ā¢ Volume exposes the truth
Sell-off: heavy red volume ā real money exiting
Bounce: light green volume ā mostly retail buying
When volume doesnāt follow price, price usually follows the trend.
š Possible outcomes
š¢ Low-probability bullish case
Clean break + acceptance above 89,644, then pullback holds ā possible long setup
š“ High-probability bearish case
Rejection in FVG ā loss of 88,230 ā next magnet around 86,000
š§ My approach
No rushing. No chasing.
Buying here offers poor risk-reward.
If youāre not experienced, spot entries only on confirmed strength ā otherwise, patience wins.
Market context matters too:
$BTC hovering near key support
$ETH still under pressure
$BCH showing relative strength but not immune
Trade smart, not fast. Liquidity always comes before direction.
#BTC #ETH #BCH #SmartMoney #SMC #CryptoMarket #WriteToEarnUpgrade #CPIWatch
