Due to reports of SpaceX's subscription being oversubscribed by several multiples, a large amount of the subscription funds will ultimately not convert into SpaceX holdings.

Impact for Tomorrow

I see three possible scenarios:

Scenario A (higher probability)

* SpaceX skyrockets
* NASDAQ dips before bouncing back
* Capital flows back into AI stocks

This falls under 'bad news priced in'.

Scenario B

* SpaceX surges 30%-80%
* Continues to attract market capital chasing gains
* AI and semiconductors remain under pressure

If FOMO (fear of missing out) kicks in, it will look like this.

Scenario C

* SpaceX opens high but closes low
* Market perceives valuation as too high
* Funds flow back into tech stocks

This scenario would actually favor SOXL the most.

If I’m looking at tomorrow

I’m focusing on three key indicators:

1. SpaceX’s price movement in the first hour after opening;
2. Whether NASDAQ Composite turns from red to green;
3. If NVIDIA and semiconductor ETFs show a significant rebound.

If tomorrow I see:

* SpaceX up over 50%;
* NVIDIA actually rising;
* Semiconductor sector flipping green;

Then it indicates that the market is beginning to unlock and reallocate subscription funds.
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