Tariff Tensions Could Derail Bitcoin’s Rally — Or Send It Soaring to $120K
Bitcoin (BTC) bulls are facing a major headwind as U.S. President Donald Trump's ongoing tariff threats trap markets in a cycle of uncertainty. According to Pav Hundal, lead analyst at crypto exchange Swyftx, this “tariff sabre rattling” is the most significant threat to BTC in the next two months.
“The biggest threat to bulls right now is that nothing changes over the next two months, and we just stay trapped in this cycle of endless tariff ultimatums,” Hundal told Cointelegraph.
Bitcoin’s Path Hinges on Policy Clarity
Hundal warns that U.S. monetary policy easing could be delayed until the economic fallout of tariffs becomes clear. The Federal Reserve, which kept interest rates steady between 4.25%–4.50% on May 7, is now closely watching unemployment and inflation data — both impacted by Trump’s aggressive trade stance.
If the uncertainty lingers, risk assets like Bitcoin could slide.
“If bears have their ‘I told you so’ moment, you could see Bitcoin drop back below $100,000,” Hundal added.
Bitcoin Reacted to Trump’s Tariff Moves
Bitcoin’s price has already shown sensitivity to Trump’s tariff rhetoric. After his first policy statement in early February, BTC dropped below $100,000 and stayed there for over three months. It only recovered on May 8, just after a U.S. court blocked Trump from unilaterally imposing tariffs, citing presidential overreach.
Still, the former president doubled down by increasing tariffs on foreign steel and aluminum to 50%, keeping pressure on the markets, according to Cointelegraph.
End of Tariff Drama Could Push BTC to $120K
Despite the bearish overhang, Hundal believes a clear resolution or pullback on tariffs would unlock a path for Bitcoin to reach $120,000 this June.
This aligns with a bullish outlook from Bitfinex analysts, who predicted Bitcoin could surpass $115,000 in July if institutional demand holds and upcoming U.S. job data shows weakness.
A “softer-than-expected” employment report, they argue, could drive the Federal Reserve to cut rates earlier — a catalyst for renewed crypto momentum.
“The Fed is walking a tightrope right now,” said Hundal. “But an end to the tariff sabre rattling will give Bitcoin a clear glide path.”
Summary: Bitcoin’s Tariff-Driven Tug-of-War
Scenario | Potential Bitcoin Impact |
|---|---|
Tariff uncertainty continues | BTC risks falling below $100K |
Tariff policy clarity or reversal | BTC may rally to $120K in June |
Weak job data | May reinforce rate cut narrative, bullish for crypto |
As the macro environment remains on edge, Bitcoin’s near-term fate could hinge on Washington’s next move — making June a pivotal month for traders watching the $100K support and the $120K breakout line.
