cryptoanalysis

History shows this pattern may not be a coincidence. In 2014, 2018, and 2022, Bitcoin bottomed against gold after roughly 14 months each time before starting a recovery. Now, the current BTC-to-gold bear phase has also reached the 14-month mark. If the historical trend holds, the market may already be near its bottom. Often the best opportunities appear when sentiment is at its lowest — before the crowd starts calling for a bull run. $BTC
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Bitcoin continues to trade around $68,000, holding firm after recent volatility. Despite macro headwinds, the market structure shows interesting divergence between sell pressure and accumulation behaviour — a mix that could shape the next trend.
Exchange Sell Pressure Is Moderating
According to on-chain analytics:
• Bitcoin deposits to centralized exchanges surged earlier in the month, then slowed considerably.
• Peak deposits around ~60,000 BTC have cooled to a lower average over recent days.
This moderation suggests that panic selling pressure has eased, and short-term inflows are not as intense as before. Lower exchange balance typically reduces immediate downward pressure on price.
Whales Still Active — Distribution Continues
However, the composition of exchange inflows tells a different story:
• The Exchange Whale Ratio — comparing the top 10 depositors relative to total inflows — remains elevated.
• Large holders are contributing a disproportionate share of BTC flows.
This implies that big investors (whales) are still selling or redistributing positions, even as overall exchange inflows cool. This dynamic echoes the redistribution theme observed in 2025, where long-term holders shifted coins into new hands.
Market Structure: Demand Zone Near Key Levels
On-chain research also highlights that Bitcoin’s recent price action has gravitated inside a major demand range between roughly $60K and $70K.
• Many coins have aged in this zone for long periods, indicating a defensive support area.
• The price continues to oscillate within this range, showing compression rather than decisive trend breakdown.
Such demand clusters often act as psychological support zones for traders.
Liquidity & Stablecoins Insight
One key factor for sustained rallies is fresh buying power, often measured by stablecoin balances on exchanges.
• Stablecoin inflows — a proxy for fresh buying demand — are not showing strong expansion at this stage.
• Historically, surging stablecoins have preceded strong market rallies. Currently, this signal is muted.
Lower “dry powder” of stablecoins suggests that immediate upside momentum may remain capped until fresh capital enters.
Accumulation and Supply Dynamics
Despite price weakness:
• Accumulating addresses have increased holdings significantly year-over-year.
• Retail-linked and recurring-buyer addresses show continued supply absorption.
Reduced inflows from centralized exchanges, along with long-term holding patterns, point to decreased liquid supply and a slower trading environment.
Levels to Watch
Support Zones:
• $65,000 – Immediate psychological buffer
• $60,000 – Lower structural support
Resistance Zones:
• $70,000 – Immediate horizontal resistance
• Near previous highs ($79,000–$80,000) – longer-term structural zone
Price near $68K suggests cautious consolidation within the existing range near support, without strong breakout or breakdown signals.
What This Means
Overall, the market is not in a full bear collapse — but neither is it in a trending rally.
✔ Sell pressure is moderating
✔ Retail and mid-term holders are absorbing supply
✔ Liquidity remains compressed
✔ Large holders still adjusting positions
This combination points to a transition phase — consolidation and redistribution — rather than sharp directional continuation.
Final Take
Bitcoin’s price near $68,000 reflects a market balancing weakening sell pressure and ongoing whale activity.
Short-term volatility could persist, but broad sell pressure has eased,
making clear directional breakout critical for the next leg.
Until that happens, the market is in a data-driven positioning phase, not an immediate breakout or breakdown environment.
⚠️ Disclaimer
This content is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research before trading derivatives or cryptocurrencies.
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$BTC
$XRP
$XAU

⚠️ 1) Retail Panic: “Bitcoin is Dead”
According to Google Trends, searches like “Bitcoin to zero” and “Bitcoin is dead” hit record levels in the U.S.
Historically, such spikes often coincide with local market bottoms.
👉 Interpretation: mass fear = potential accumulation phase.
🐋 2) Whales Are Moving the Market (Exchange Deposits)
CryptoQuant reports that BTC inflows to exchanges are increasingly dominated by large wallets, while stablecoin inflows are declining.
This signals preparation for volatility (selling or hedging).
👉 Typically:
BTC to exchanges = risk of sell pressure
Stablecoins to exchanges = preparation to buy
💣 3) Whale Sold $335M in BTC
A large transfer or sale of approximately $335 million in Bitcoin was recorded, testing market resilience amid inflation risks.
This increased selling pressure and buyer uncertainty.
⚙️ 4) Bitcoin Mining Difficulty at Record High
Bitcoin mining difficulty reached a new all-time high.
This increases production costs → bullish long term.
🌎 5) U.S. Tariffs and Crypto
The recent U.S. court decision on tariffs had almost no impact on crypto markets.
Analysts conclude that macro headlines are already priced in, and crypto is currently driven by liquidity rather than news.
📊 Market Picture Today
Bitcoin around $67K–$68K
Total crypto market cap ≈ $2.33T
79% of altcoins are down over the last 24 hours → bearish dominance
📉 What’s Really Happening (Market Structure)
1) Market is in a consolidation phase below $70K resistance
No liquidity catalyst
ETF flows unstable
Retail sentiment in fear
2) Typical Scenario Now
👉 accumulation → fake dump → expansion
3) Why Altcoins Are Weak
BTC dominance >58%
Capital is not flowing into risk
No major altcoin catalysts
🧩 Key Psychological Indicator
When “Bitcoin is dead” trends massively →
👉 often the beginning of accumulation or reversal.
However:
⚠️ This does NOT mean immediate upside. Usually there is one final downside sweep before the rally.
🧠 Critical Conclusion (Objective)
The market is NOT in a bull run
This is a transition phase: distribution / accumulation
Whales are active, but liquidity is missing
Probable scenario:
1–2 more downside sweeps
then an impulse move (if macro does not break the structure)
Disclaimer:
This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice.
Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile and involve significant risk. Always conduct your own research (DYOR) and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
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