riverperp

🔍 $RIVER Perp – Technical & Derivatives Overview (Price Corrected to ~$77–86)
📉 Price Action (15m)
Price hit a strong rejection at $86, marking a local top.
Currently consolidating around $77–78, forming a series of lower highs.
Trading below EMA(7) and EMA(25), indicating short-term bearish pressure.
Still above EMA(99) at ~$74, so the broader uptrend is intact.
📊 Momentum (RSI)
RSI(6) ≈ 34 → near oversold, but no bullish divergence yet.
RSI(12/24) below 50 → sellers retain control.
🧨 Open Interest (5m)
OI decreasing as price moves sideways → longs are closing, not building.
Suggests distribution/cooldown rather than accumulation.
No major short buildup yet → potential downside move may come later.
🧠 Top Trader Long/Short Ratio
Shorts dominate (~60%+).
Short positions rising during consolidation → bearish bias.
Short squeeze only likely if price reclaims $80+ with strong volume.
🎯 Key Levels
Resistance: $79.5–$80 (EMA25 zone)
Support 1: $75
Critical Support 2: $73–74 (EMA99)
⚡ Bias & Scenarios
Base Case (High Probability): Sideways movement → pullback to $74–75 to reset momentum.
Bull Trap Risk: Weak bounce to $79–80 without volume → potential short entry.
Bullish Scenario: Only if $80 is reclaimed cleanly with rising volume and OI.
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