Bitcoin’s mining difficulty — a key metric that determines how hard it is to add a new block to the decentralized blockchain ledger — declined slightly to 146.4 trillion on Thursday, marking the first difficulty adjustment of 2026.
According to data from CoinWarz, the next difficulty adjustment is expected on January 22, 2026, with an estimated increase from 146.47 T to 148.20 T. The current average block time stands at 9.88 minutes, slightly below Bitcoin’s 10-minute target, which explains why the upcoming adjustment is projected to raise difficulty modestly to bring block times back toward equilibrium.
Throughout 2025, Bitcoin’s mining difficulty reached multiple all-time highs, with the final adjustment of the year pushing difficulty higher once again. Despite this, the network remains below its record peak of 155.9 trillion, set in November.
Rising difficulty reflects intensifying competition among miners, adding further strain to an industry already facing macroeconomic headwinds, regulatory uncertainty, and tightening financial conditions.
2025: The Harshest Profit Environment for Bitcoin Miners on Record
The year 2025 is widely regarded as the most challenging period ever for Bitcoin miners in terms of profit margins. The pressure stems largely from the April 2024 halving, which cut block rewards in half, combined with unfavorable macroeconomic conditions.
Market weakness that began in November added another layer of stress. Hashprice — a metric representing expected revenue per unit of computational power — fell below breakeven levels in November 2025.
The $40 per petahash per second per day threshold is commonly viewed as the minimum level required for many miners to operate sustainably. In November, hashprice dropped below $35, marking its lowest level in several years and forcing some operators to reconsider or temporarily halt mining activity.
Additional pressure came from new tariffs introduced by U.S. President Donald Trump, which raised concerns over potential disruptions in the mining hardware supply chain. Increased equipment costs and delayed deliveries further complicated operational planning for mining firms.
Bitcoin Price Volatility Adds to Mining Stress
The broader crypto market experienced a sharp downturn in October, with Bitcoin losing more than 30% in November, briefly falling into the low $80,000 range. Although BTC has since rebounded, it remains well below its all-time high above $125,000, recorded in October.
While price recovery has provided some relief, miners continue to operate in an environment where network difficulty, energy costs, and regulatory risks remain elevated, limiting the impact of short-term price improvements.
Final Thoughts
The first difficulty adjustment of 2026 highlights Bitcoin’s ongoing network recalibration amid shifting market conditions. Although difficulty remains below its historical peak, miners continue to face compressed margins and structural challenges, making operational efficiency more critical than ever.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Readers are encouraged to conduct their own research. The author assumes no responsibility for investment decisions based on this content.
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