DaanCrypto

Quick Thoughts on the remainder of this Year/Cycle 👇

Obviously I'll let the charts, trends and new information lead the way as we go and ideas can change. Just think the below makes sense as we speak.

My base case is a slowdown in Summer and a choppy environment for most markets. This does not mean we can't go higher. I just don't think we'll get the real craziness & blow off top or whatever until later in the year/cycle.

This would likely be paired with some correction and higher low on stocks. Trump clearly isn't willing to support markets at this level and his tone changed from when $SPX traded ~5000. He can just talk the markets up and down depending on where they trade. I also think the Fed isn't likely to do anything to support the markets until later in Q3/Q4. Maybe we look through it all anyways and just ignore the noise but it's safe to assume that at some point markets get spooked again by something and the Fed doesn't step in before that happens.

Possibly by then, something also has broken and we can start the money printing and QE stage which $BTC and crypto love so much. That should also help the overall risk on appetite towards alts.

I do think we will see some narrative emerge during the Summer regardless of the market environment. That's something you should focus on as those plays can very well be some bangers for the rest of the cycle.

In the past we had DeFi Summer, NFTs, Metaverse all the crazy runs have come around that time. Especially after BTC has had a big run the year(s) prior.

Then Q3 we can start the fun and last stage of this cycle into EOY.

And yes, I do still think the 4 year cycle has merit and is a decent guideline. Mainly because until now, it's the only thing that has proven to be true over all these years. I also think it matches up pretty well with the overall state of things macro wise. Although the latter is hard to predict.

Pensamentos Rápidos sobre o restante deste Ano/Ciclo 👇

Obviamente, deixarei os gráficos, tendências e novas informações liderarem o caminho enquanto avançamos e as ideias podem mudar. Apenas acho que o abaixo faz sentido enquanto falamos.

Meu cenário base é uma desaceleração no Verão e um ambiente instável para a maioria dos mercados. Isso não significa que não podemos subir mais. Apenas não acho que teremos a verdadeira loucura & o topo explosivo ou o que quer que seja até mais tarde no ano/ciclo.

Isso provavelmente estaria emparelhado com alguma correção e um fundo mais alto nas ações. Trump claramente não está disposto a apoiar os mercados neste nível e seu tom mudou desde que o $SPX negociou ~5000. Ele pode simplesmente falar os mercados para cima e para baixo dependendo de onde eles negociam. Também acho que o Fed não está propenso a fazer nada para apoiar os mercados mais tarde no Q3/Q4. Talvez olhemos para tudo isso de qualquer forma e apenas ignoremos o barulho, mas é seguro assumir que em algum momento os mercados ficam assustados novamente por algo e o Fed não intervém antes que isso aconteça.

Possivelmente até lá, algo também já quebrou e podemos começar a impressão de dinheiro e a fase de QE que o $BTC e as criptos tanto adoram. Isso também deve ajudar o apetite geral por risco em relação aos altcoins.

Acho que veremos alguma narrativa emergir durante o Verão, independentemente do ambiente de mercado. Isso é algo que você deve se concentrar, pois essas jogadas podem muito bem ser algumas bombas para o restante do ciclo.

No passado, tivemos o Verão DeFi, NFTs, Metaverso, todas as corridas loucas aconteceram naquela época. Especialmente depois que o BTC teve uma grande corrida nos anos anteriores.

Então, no Q3, podemos começar a diversão e a última fase deste ciclo até o final do ano.

E sim, eu ainda acho que o ciclo de 4 anos tem mérito e é um guia decente. Principalmente porque até agora, é a única coisa que provou ser verdadeira ao longo de todos esses anos. Também acho que se alinha muito bem com o estado geral das coisas em termos macro. Embora o último seja difícil de prever.

$BTC $1B+ Open Interest ramp up in 3 hours during a weekend.

BTC has been strong lately but be careful when a lot of leverage is added during weekends.

While $BTC made new highs, we can see how the $TOTAL Altcoin Market Cap is still nowhere close.

Even though it has bounced and taken back some previous losses, it's still 30%+ away from reaching those all time highs (which are still from 2021).

The key horizontal level on the chart is what needs to be broken for alts to play some catch up with BTC. But overall, the BTC trend is just much stronger as it has been all cycle.

Enquanto o $BTC atingiu novas máximas, podemos ver como o $TOTAL Capital de Mercado de Altcoins ainda está longe disso.

Embora tenha se recuperado e recuperado algumas perdas anteriores, ainda está a mais de 30% de atingir essas máximas históricas (que ainda são de 2021).

O nível horizontal chave no gráfico é o que precisa ser rompido para que as altcoins consigam acompanhar o BTC. Mas, no geral, a tendência do BTC é muito mais forte, como tem sido todo o ciclo.

It's a fact that most summers, price action gets relatively choppy and doesn't often trend in a strong direction.

We saw it in 2023 and 2024 this cycle.

If there are any signs that we'd go through something similar again in 2025 where we're just following up big moves with full retraces every few weeks or so, my goal will be to try and do as little as possible.

These periods can be good to rebalance long term exposure and do some shorter term trades. But positioning for swing trades and roundtripping your "bottom" or "top" entries is generally quite wasteful of your time, energy and money.

Just writing this for future reference and to remind others that the Summer is generally pretty slow as there's simply less volume, liquidity and market participants. The same counts for stocks.

É um fato que na maioria dos verões, a ação do preço fica relativamente instável e não costuma seguir uma direção forte.

Vimos isso em 2023 e 2024 neste ciclo.

Se houver sinais de que passaremos por algo semelhante novamente em 2025, onde simplesmente estamos seguindo grandes movimentos com retrações completas a cada poucas semanas, meu objetivo será tentar fazer o mínimo possível.

Esses períodos podem ser bons para reequilibrar a exposição de longo prazo e realizar algumas negociações de curto prazo. Mas posicionar-se para negociações de swing e fazer roundtrip nas suas entradas de "fundo" ou "topo" geralmente é um desperdício de tempo, energia e dinheiro.

Estou escrevendo isso para referência futura e para lembrar os outros que o verão geralmente é bastante lento, pois há simplesmente menos volume, liquidez e participantes do mercado. O mesmo vale para as ações.

It's a fact that most summers, price action gets relatively choppy and doesn't often trend in a strong direction.

We saw it in 2023 and 2024 this cycle.

If there are any signs that we'd go through something similar again in 2025 where we're just following up big moves with full retraces every few weeks or so, my goal will be to try and do as little as possible.

These periods can be good to rebalance long term exposure and do some shorter term trades. But positioning for swing trades and roundtripping your "bottom" or "top" entries is generally quite wasteful of your time, energy and money.

Just writing this for future reference and to remind others that the Summer is generally pretty slow as there's simply less volume, liquidity and market participants. The same counts for stocks.

It's a fact that most summers, price action gets relatively choppy and doesn't often trend in a strong direction.

We saw it in 2023 and 2024 this cycle.

If there are any signs that we'd go through something similar again in 2025 where we're just following up big moves with full retraces every few weeks or so, my goal will be to try and do as little as possible.

These periods can be good to rebalance long term exposure and do some shorter term trades. But positioning for swing trades and roundtripping your "bottom" or "top" entries is generally quite wasteful of your time, energy and money.

Just writing this for future reference and to remind others that the Summer is generally pretty slow as there's simply less volume, liquidity and market participants. The same counts for stocks.

It's a fact that most summers, price action gets relatively choppy and doesn't often trend in a strong direction.

We saw it in 2023 and 2024 this cycle.

If there are any signs that we'd go through something similar again in 2025 where we're just following up big moves with full retraces every few weeks or so, my goal will be to try and do as little as possible.

These periods can be good to rebalance long term exposure and do some shorter term trades. But positioning for swing trades and roundtripping your "bottom" or "top" entries is generally quite wasteful of your time, energy and money.

Just writing this for future reference and to remind others that the Summer is generally pretty slow as there's simply less volume, liquidity and market participants. The same counts for stocks.

É um fato que na maioria dos verões, a ação dos preços fica relativamente instável e não costuma seguir uma direção forte.

Vimos isso em 2023 e 2024 neste ciclo.

Se houver sinais de que passaremos por algo semelhante novamente em 2025, onde estaremos apenas seguindo grandes movimentos com correções totais a cada poucas semanas, meu objetivo será tentar fazer o mínimo possível.

Esses períodos podem ser bons para reequilibrar a exposição de longo prazo e fazer algumas operações de curto prazo. Mas se posicionar para operações de swing e reverter suas entradas de "fundo" ou "topo" geralmente é um desperdício de seu tempo, energia e dinheiro.

Estou escrevendo isso para referência futura e para lembrar os outros que o verão geralmente é bastante lento, pois há simplesmente menos volume, liquidez e participantes do mercado. O mesmo vale para as ações.

$BTC em relação às ações negociando de volta nas máximas históricas.

Vimos um forte desempenho superior desde a incerteza do dia da libertação.

Depois, vimos as ações superarem por cerca de uma semana desde o "Acordo" comercial EUA-China, à medida que a incerteza foi removida do mercado. Desde então, o BTC reassumiu a liderança.

Continuaremos monitorando a relação. Quanto mais isso se mantiver, mais otimista é para o BTC.

Can't recall a time in history where $BTC just casually traded around in a 1% range at all time highs.

Bigger move following once it breaks this local tiny range. Quite a lot of positions being build up on both sides.

$BTC Superb Price Action.

$500+ candles every few minutes 🤪

It's going to be an interesting trading day today.

$ETH tem oscilado na região de 2400-2600 desde o grande squeeze para cima.

Embora $BTC esteja forte e tenha atingido um novo recorde histórico, o ETH está novamente ficando para trás neste movimento mais recente.

Isso fez com que a relação ETH/BTC esfriasse um pouco também.

Meus níveis de interesse estão marcados no gráfico. A área <2500 foi bem defendida até agora, mas ainda não vimos um forte acompanhamento.

Acima de 2850 e abaixo de 2100 são áreas chave.

$BTC Arrived at its range & all time high area.

This is resistance until it's not. Generally not where you want to be adding on crazy amounts of risk until a proper breakout is confirmed. A daily close would be a good start.

The $SPX bounce has been pretty insane, recovering back to its yearly open and is now green since Liberation day.

Although I've been loving this bounce after buying into tech stocks during the first week of April (shared on here), the sheer pace of this bounce is what makes me a little cautious. This recovery, although a smaller move, has only taken about a month. Compared to for example 3 months after the covid crash which was paired with massive stimulus. Something we don't have (yet).

I did scale out a good bunch of profits after most of the buys have been up 30-50% in the matter of weeks. Generally you expect those returns over 1-3 years on average. Not 4 weeks. So happy to scale out in that regard and have some cash on the side.

As for $BTC, it has been strong during the tariff drama but has kinda stalled against $SPX since the US/China "deal" was made. I would assume some higher low being created does put some pressure on BTC as well. If stocks go down and BTC holds up well then that'd be incredibly bullish but I think this mostly comes down to the pace of the sell off (when it comes).

Anyways, we'll see what we get. I think we've gone from sentiment expecting a 1929 depression repeat to a lot of good news being baked in now, within a 1 month time span. Expecting summer to be mostly choppy and don't like the risk/reward on equities much in the short/mid term.

If we get 5250 or 5500 I'll start slowly scaling back in exposure. For now I'm happy yielding 4-5% on the cash while I wait out what the market does next.

$BTC Just made a new all time high.

Most of $BTC's returns this month have come during the US & EU trading sessions.

Meanwhile, the Asia session has been rather bearish and has been flat over the month and negative during the last week.