APENAS EM: Os mercados de taxas precificam 3 cortes de taxas | André Dragosch, PhD | Bitcoin & Macro no Binance Square

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André Dragosch, PhD | Bitcoin & Macro

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APENAS EM: Os mercados de taxas precificam 3 cortes de taxas em meio a um crescimento massivo na superação do NFP. 
Os contratos futuros dos Fed Funds agora precificam apenas 2 cortes no total até dezembro de 2025.

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André Dragosch, PhD | Bitcoin & Macro

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📌RE: US Fiscal Debt Situation Think there is a common misconception that foreign holders are currently divesting from US Treasury bonds. However, the truth is that the total $ amount of USTs held by foreigners has continued to go UP. Includes China, Japan, UK etc Yields have probably failed to go decisively lower b/c: 1. Ongoing Fed QT 2. Total Debt has increased more than growth in foreign + other domestic holdings. Implication: You need all 3 types of buyers -- Fed, other domestic, and foreign buyers to purchase USTs for yields to go lower b/c the debt pile is already growing so fast... No enough about US fiscal debt. Enjoy the 4th of July! 🙂

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*** THREAD *** 𝗛𝗲𝗿𝗲 𝗮𝗿𝗲 𝘀𝗼𝗺𝗲 𝗞𝗲𝘆 𝗔𝗿𝗴𝘂𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁𝘀 𝘄𝗵𝘆 𝗶𝗻𝘀𝘁𝗶𝘁𝘂𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝗮𝗹 𝗶𝗻𝘃𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗿𝘀 𝗰𝗮𝗻'𝘁 𝗶𝗴𝗻𝗼𝗿𝗲 #𝗕𝗶𝘁𝗰𝗼𝗶𝗻 𝗮𝗻𝘆𝗺𝗼𝗿𝗲: 1⃣Among top 10 most valuable single assets in the world (#7 next to Alphabet and Silver). 2⃣Volatility already on par with major traditional asset classes such as US equities. 3⃣Alternative safe-haven asset / reserve asset closer to fair value than gold with better transferability, verifiability, and divisibility. 4⃣Better bond diversifier than gold both overall and especially during US Treasury bond down days. 5⃣Very significant increase in both Sharpe and Sortino ratio with small portfolio allocations. 6⃣Significantly higher expected long-term returns than any major asset class. (bookmark for future reference) See charts below 👇🧵

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GM ☕️ Global economic recovery is already well underway. Position for RISK ON. #Bitcoin $MSTR $MTPLF

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GM ☕️ Remember when reading post-mortems about the strong NFP beat today that the latest QCEW revisions have revealed that … … non-farm payrolls were OVERSTATED by ~88,888 jobs each month between March 2024 - December 2024. Have a great day!

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The implosion of the government debt Ponzi is what will ultimately accelerate the migration of wealth from traditional fiat assets to hard assets like #Bitcoin. High valuations of equities, real estate, bonds and even gold were ultimately dependent on low interest rates. Read: low discount factor. Now, that yields will continue to grind higher on account of rising fiscal and inflation risks, these high valuations will become increasingly under pressure, eventually removing the monetary premium in them that was induced by the de-anchoring of the USD from gold in 1971. The root problem is that there is no safe-haven asset anymore and the investment world is already in search of a new one. #Bitcoin is bound to absorb most of these monetary premia in fiat assets as the scarcest most portable and incorruptible hard asset on the planet. The amount of potential capital flows is in the 100s of trillions. Will provide a quantitative estimate of those flows soon. Have a great night!

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