XRP price dropped 4.04% in 24 hours, trading at $2.33.
Regulatory uncertainty with SEC delays hampers XRP ETF approvals.Futures market shows $2.2 billion in open interest, mixed sentiment.Institutional interest rises, but bearish patterns signal caution.XRP underperforms broader crypto market despite bullish news.
#XRP #cryptocurrency #Ripple #SEC #ETF XRP trades at $2.33, down 4.04% in the last 24 hours, despite two significant bullish developments: its inclusion in a proposed U.S. strategic crypto reserve and the launch of regulated XRP futures. These events were expected to drive price gains, but XRP continues to lag the broader cryptocurrency market, which rose 10% in the past three months while XRP fell 6%.
The disconnect stems from regulatory uncertainty and mixed market signals. While futures markets reflect growing interest, technical patterns and institutional hesitancy cloud XRP’s outlook. This article examines why these bullish catalysts have failed to spark a rally.
Regulatory Roadblocks Stifle Momentum
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) delayed decisions on spot XRP exchange-traded funds (ETFs), with a final ruling expected in October. Multiple issuers applied for XRP ETF listings, signaling institutional interest, but the SEC’s hesitation has dampened optimism. A recent rejection of a $50 million settlement between Ripple and the SEC further complicates the landscape, leaving investors wary of unresolved legal issues.
“Regulatory clarity is critical for XRP’s growth,” an industry observer noted, emphasizing the impact of ongoing SEC scrutiny. Without ETF approval, XRP struggles to attract significant capital inflows, limiting its ability to break past resistance levels like $3.25, its all-time high in 2025.
The SEC’s cautious approach contrasts with favorable developments, such as the agency dropping its appeal against a ruling that XRP is not a security when sold to retail investors on public exchanges. Despite this, the lack of a clear regulatory framework continues to suppress price momentum.
Mixed Market Signals and Technical Patterns
XRP futures markets show $2.2 billion in open interest, up 31% from two weeks ago, indicating heightened trader activity. However, this figure is not inherently bullish, as futures can be used to bet against price gains. Excessive demand for leveraged long positions has led to positive funding rates, where buyers pay to maintain their positions, signaling potential overextension.
Technical indicators reveal conflicting signals. XRP formed a V-shaped recovery pattern, suggesting a potential climb to $3.40. Yet, a bearish head-and-shoulders pattern emerged, with analysts warning of a possible drop to $2.00 if support at $2.30 fails. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 52 reflects fading bullish momentum, hovering near neutral levels.
“XRP must hold key support to avoid a deeper correction,” a market technician stated, highlighting the $2.30 level as critical. Declining network activity and whale holdings further weaken the bullish case, with futures open interest dropping from $5.52 billion on May 14 to $4.59 billion.
The broader crypto market’s strength, led by Bitcoin nearing $111,000, underscores XRP’s underperformance. Reduced exchange inflows, from 2 billion to 14.5 million XRP, suggest holders are opting for self-custody, potentially easing selling pressure. However, this has not translated into price gains.
XRP’s inclusion in a proposed U.S. crypto reserve, alongside Solana and Cardano, was touted as a game-changer. The proposal, linked to pro-crypto political action, raised hopes of mainstream adoption. Additionally, the launch of cash-settled XRP futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) marked a step toward institutional legitimacy. These contracts, priced off a daily reference rate, were seen as a precursor to ETF approval.
Despite these developments, XRP’s price remains stagnant. Institutional interest, while growing, is tempered by regulatory delays and bearish technical signals. The $2.2 billion futures position reflects engagement, but the lack of clear bullish momentum suggests traders are hedging both sides.
XRP’s path to $3.40 remains possible if it breaks above the 50-day and 100-day exponential moving averages at $2.21. Failure to do so could trigger a decline toward $1.75, as bearish patterns like the inverse cup-and-handle signal potential reversals. Investors await clarity on ETF approvals and regulatory developments to determine XRP’s next move.