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Bitcoin climbed nearly 3% to around $65,000 on Tuesday, snapping weeks of early U.S. session sell-offs, as online speculation about Jane Street’s trading activity gained traction.
The rebound follows persistent claims across social media that a so-called “10 a.m. algo” had been suppressing Bitcoin’s price during the first hour of U.S. equity trading. While those claims remain unverified, Bitcoin’s latest move has reignited debate over whether structural market flows — or coordinated selling — have been capping rallies.
Bitcoin Breaks the Morning Sell-Off Pattern
For weeks, traders have pointed to a recurring pattern: as U.S. equities open between 9:30 a.m. and 10:00 a.m. ET, Bitcoin’s overnight gains frequently fade.
Since early November, BTC has reportedly declined during the first hour of U.S. trading in more than 60% of sessions, often dropping as much as 3% in that window. On Dec. 4, for example, Bitcoin slid 2.1% within minutes of the S&P 500 opening flat.
On Tuesday, however, that pattern failed to materialize. Instead, Bitcoin surged nearly 3%, trading near $65,000 and helping lift broader crypto market capitalization by roughly 2.7% over 24 hours.
Social Media Targets Jane Street
The rally coincided with renewed speculation involving Jane Street, a major quantitative trading firm active across global markets.
Investor Mike Alfred claimed on X that, based on conversations with an alleged internal source, Jane Street had ordered an “immediate cessation” of manipulative Bitcoin trading and shut down a “10 a.m. algo.”
Alfred wrote that his source believed “BTC probably goes up now.”
Neither Jane Street nor Alfred provided verification, and no independent evidence has confirmed the existence of such a strategy. Requests for comment reportedly received no response by publication time.
Legal Pressure Revives TerraUSD Scrutiny
The speculation also comes as Jane Street faces renewed legal scrutiny linked to the 2022 collapse of Terraform Labs’ TerraUSD (UST) stablecoin and its sister token Luna, which wiped out roughly $40 billion in market value.
On Feb. 23, Terraform Labs’ bankruptcy administrator filed an 83-page complaint alleging insider trading and market manipulation by Jane Street Group, co-founder Robert Granieri and two employees prior to TerraUSD’s collapse.
Jane Street has denied the allegations, calling them “baseless.”
Market Structure May Explain 10 a.m. Volatility
Despite viral narratives, analysts caution that volatility around 10 a.m. ET is not unusual.
The window follows the 9:30 a.m. U.S. equity open, when liquidity deepens and cross-asset desks rebalance positions. Bitcoin remains closely correlated with traditional markets, meaning equity-driven flows often spill into crypto.
Several major U.S. economic data releases — including consumer confidence reports — also occur at 10 a.m., frequently triggering rapid repositioning across asset classes.
Bitcoin trades 24/7, but liquidity shifts between Asia, Europe and the U.S. can exaggerate normal order-book adjustments once American participation increases.
Macro and Technical Factors Also Support the Move
Beyond speculation, macro alignment played a key role in the rebound. Over the past 24 hours, Bitcoin showed roughly a 95% correlation with the S&P 500, according to CoinMarketCap data.
From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin had recently entered oversold territory, with its relative strength index (RSI) near 30 — a level often associated with short-term relief rallies.
Analysts say BTC must:
Hold above $64,000 support
Break above resistance near $66,535 (7-day simple moving average)
Failure to reclaim that resistance could leave Bitcoin vulnerable to a retest of key support around $60,000.
Narrative vs. Reality
While the “10 a.m. dump” narrative has captured trader attention, market structure, macro correlations and technical positioning offer more grounded explanations for recent price swings.
For now, Bitcoin’s rebound appears driven more by macro alignment and oversold conditions than by confirmed changes in institutional trading behavior.
Whether the morning sell-off pattern is truly broken — or merely paused — remains to be seen.
#BTC #EFT