$SPCX $BTC $SNDK Walsh's debut 'flips the table': No rate hike, but removed rate cut guidance, scrapped the dot plot
At the start of the conference, US stocks were still in the red (Dow -0.2%, S&P -0.5%). As the meeting progressed, the decline deepened, with traders fully pricing in a rate hike from the Fed by October.
But tonight's focus isn't on rates; it's about how Walsh is redefining the Fed's playbook.
No surprises on the rate decision: maintaining the range at 3.5%-3.75% for the fourth consecutive time, as expected.
But the real changes come in three points:
First, the 'easing bias' has been removed. The statement shrank from 341 words to 130, eliminating phrases that hinted at a possible rate cut. Out of 18 FOMC members, 9 expect a rate hike this year. The thought of rate cuts can be completely dismissed.
Second, the forward guidance of the dot plot has been scrapped. Walsh clearly stated, 'We have given up on forward guidance and cannot provide any hints on the next steps.' This essentially means that the dot plot, the market's most scrutinized forecasting tool, is out the window—don't expect a roadmap from the Fed moving forward.
Third, the inflation stance leans hawkish. Acknowledging that inflation is 'far above the 2% target,' the committee unanimously agreed to make price stability the top priority. Although oil prices have dropped, there's absolutely no softening in their stance.
No rate hike is a good thing, but Walsh's approach of 'less talk, no commitments' tells the market—don't expect to squeeze any hints on the next steps from the Fed. The market will have to price itself, and volatility won't be small.
#沃什首次FOMC维持利率 #沃什聘保守派顾问促美联储改革 #美联储四度维持利率不变 #美联储维持利率不变点阵图鹰派
At the start of the conference, US stocks were still in the red (Dow -0.2%, S&P -0.5%). As the meeting progressed, the decline deepened, with traders fully pricing in a rate hike from the Fed by October.
But tonight's focus isn't on rates; it's about how Walsh is redefining the Fed's playbook.
No surprises on the rate decision: maintaining the range at 3.5%-3.75% for the fourth consecutive time, as expected.
But the real changes come in three points:
First, the 'easing bias' has been removed. The statement shrank from 341 words to 130, eliminating phrases that hinted at a possible rate cut. Out of 18 FOMC members, 9 expect a rate hike this year. The thought of rate cuts can be completely dismissed.
Second, the forward guidance of the dot plot has been scrapped. Walsh clearly stated, 'We have given up on forward guidance and cannot provide any hints on the next steps.' This essentially means that the dot plot, the market's most scrutinized forecasting tool, is out the window—don't expect a roadmap from the Fed moving forward.
Third, the inflation stance leans hawkish. Acknowledging that inflation is 'far above the 2% target,' the committee unanimously agreed to make price stability the top priority. Although oil prices have dropped, there's absolutely no softening in their stance.
No rate hike is a good thing, but Walsh's approach of 'less talk, no commitments' tells the market—don't expect to squeeze any hints on the next steps from the Fed. The market will have to price itself, and volatility won't be small.
#沃什首次FOMC维持利率 #沃什聘保守派顾问促美联储改革 #美联储四度维持利率不变 #美联储维持利率不变点阵图鹰派