Mohamed Manae

Trade with caution.
The final stage of stress, where conditions are forming but the signal hasn't yet been triggered, is approaching a crucial turning point for long-term investors.
However, history suggests that the final stage of the cycle is not yet complete.
In previous cycles, Bitcoin market bottoms only formed after long-term investors had incurred unrealized net losses—a stage where their convictions were tested and capital came under constant pressure.
These bottoms typically lasted between 6 days (as in the 2020 crash) and 277 days.
In the current cycle, we are witnessing a rapid decline in profitability.
Since the peak on October 6, 2025, long-term investor profitability has plummeted from 58% to just 3% in 142 days.
This sharp and rapid decline reflects a significant deterioration in investor positions and sentiment.
Yet, despite this downturn, long-term investors' adjusted net profit/loss remains slightly above zero.
And that is what matters most.
This suggests that despite the heightened stress level, the group has not yet entered the broad capitulation zone historically required to form sustained market bottoms.
In other words, capital is uncomfortable, but not yet forced into losses.
This distinction is important.
Market bottoms don't just form when investors are under pressure; they form when investors are in a precarious position after watching their accumulated gains evaporate completely and their positions turn into losses.
Until the LTH-NUPL indicators decisively move into negative NUPL territory, the probability of an early bottom remains high.
The current environment resembles a late stress phase, not a complete capitulation.
The opportunity is forming, but the signal hasn't been triggered yet.
🧐What to watch:
Watch for a sustained move of the LTH-NUPL indicator below zero, accompanied by a prolonged decline in price and volatility.
This would indicate forced stress and a potential capitulation, conditions that historically correspond to asymmetric entry points.
Over 40% of alternative cryptocurrencies are nearing all-time lows.
This percentage is even higher than that recorded during the previous bear market, which peaked at around 38%.
However, when such extremely low performance emerges, it can create very attractive investment opportunities.
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