BTC Bulls vs Bears: $111K Showdown Could Trigger Market CARNAGE 🐂
Daily chart:
BTC trades at $110,900.
• 200-day BPRO support = $111,000
• 200-day SMA = $101,696
Price is right on trend support, critical decision time.
And key indicator isn't looking good, because
Momentum weak:
• RSI = 45 (neutral, leaning bearish)
• 50-day momentum = 51
BTC is drifting sideways, no breakout energy yet.
It means more than you'd expect👇
BTC is primed for a sharp move.
Volatility steady:
• ATR = 2,820
• 50-day volatility = 2,930
While the market pendulum hasn’t picked direction, you know that big move is coming.
So you can prepare, secure profits, etc.
Protect your capital at all cost against downside.
Short-term leans bearish.
• CTF Trailer stop = $112,758 (bear mode)
• HTF Trailer stop = $114,292 (bear mode)
• High Band = $113.2K–$114K
• Low Band = $108.2K–$109K
Bulls need to reclaim $113K+ or it gets nasty fast.
Bears may have the upper hand.
But not all is lost.
Market Sentiment is resilient:
Fear & Greed Index = 48 → neutral.
No panic, no euphoria.
Traders are waiting for the next trigger.
The longer the wait, the bigger the breakout.
If it breaks down, miners can settle the floor.
Mining:
• Cost = $98,539
• Ratio = 0.89
Miners still highly profitable → no stress selling.
The floor remains secure around $96K–$99K.
(miners' breakeven often serves as support).
Still, numbers don't lie and
Seasonality is the problem.
• Sept ann. return: -55.17%
• Avg = -6.17% | Median = -3.86%
September has been BTC’s worst month on record.
Even if take out worst outlier, still strongly negative.
Options expiry + funds rebalancing + impatience.
bears > bulls also in Q3.
Q3 stats (15-yr sample):
• Annualized = -8.16%
• Avg = -2.10% | Median = +0.80%
• Total profit = +4,976 pts
Q3 choppy: slightly more wins than losses, but extreme dips skew means.
And, yes -
$BTC lost more than 70% in Q3 one time.
🤔Can your portfolio survive such crash?
ETFs flipped red again:
• BTC Spot ETF vol = $4.10B (24h)
• Net flow = -222.9M (Sep 4)
• AUM = $155.57B
Institutions paused buying after last week’s inflows.
Q4 positioning hasn’t restarted yet - also for ETH⤵️
Bonus: ETH temp check.
ETH ETFs booked -167M outflows (Sep 4), but AUM still strong $26.1B.
Spot dominance 99.75%.
Price weaker, but institutional exposure remains sticky.
Key support: SMA50 $4,128; SMA200 $2,728.
It surely can't drop under $3,000 - or can it?👀
Danger ahead: 11 days left
till the most important FOMC of the cycle.
It will either crack or skyrocket this market.
89% chance of 25bps rate cut (flat/bear)
8x more than odds of 50bps rate cut (bull)
⚠️Don't get caught in deadly chop (see below)
Putting it all together:
BTC is clinging to $111K support with weak momentum, ETF outflows, and September’s curse looming.
Miners safe, long-term support intact, but near-term choppy.
Patience: this month is survival - also for ETH.
The fireworks are Q4.
Before you go,
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Thanks for all the love in comments.
God bless you all🧡
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