Mila Fox

Bitcoin’s market structure has a habit of repeating itself — not perfectly, but closely enough that those who study both time and price often gain an edge over those watching price alone.
Right now, many traders are focused on short-term volatility, but the bigger question is whether Bitcoin is once again following the broader cycle patterns seen after previous halvings.
Looking back at prior cycles, the time between all-time highs and eventual cycle bottoms shows striking similarities. After the 2012 halving, Bitcoin bottomed roughly 406 days later. The 2016 cycle saw a bottom around 363 days after its peak. The 2020 cycle followed a similar timeline, bottoming roughly 376 days later.
With the current cycle still unfolding, projections suggest the next statistically likely bottom window could fall somewhere in late 2026, particularly between October and November, if historical timing continues to rhyme.
This is where many investors make a critical mistake. Most market participants focus entirely on price targets, waiting endlessly for the “perfect entry.” But markets rarely reward perfect expectations. Often, price never reaches the exact levels retail traders wait for, leaving them chasing moves higher.
A more balanced framework looks at both time and price together.
On the price side, Bitcoin entering the $60,000 region already represents a significant retracement from cycle highs. Historically, these zones begin attracting long-term buyers, even if volatility remains.
On the time side, deeper corrections can still unfold before the final bottom forms. That means further downside remains possible, especially if broader liquidity conditions tighten or macroeconomic pressures increase.
This is why some long-term investors accumulate gradually when price enters value zones rather than betting everything on a single bottom call.
Another factor often considered is on-chain data, particularly metrics like Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL), which has historically signaled periods when market participants experience maximum pain and capitulation. In past cycles, those moments marked strong long-term buying opportunities. Currently, markets have not yet fully entered that deep capitulation territory, suggesting further volatility cannot be ruled out.
So what does all this mean?
It means Bitcoin could still experience deeper corrections — possibly revisiting the $45K–$50K range or lower before a true long-term bottom forms. But it also means opportunities are gradually building for those with patience and structured risk management.
Markets rarely move in straight lines. They shake out weak hands before rewarding disciplined participants.
The key takeaway is simple:
Price matters. Time matters. But risk management matters most.
Because in the end, survival through volatility is what allows investors to benefit when the next expansion phase inevitably begins.
$BTC