Bluntz-1

$BTC older capital is lifting the market first. Speculators still have to chase it later Since the February washout, the 90d-180d Realized Cap wave stopped leading. It spiked early, then rolled over. The 180d-365d wave did the opposite. It kept building almost the whole way and now sits at the high of the window. That is not random. Price is moving higher, but the capital under that move is getting older, not hotter. This is not fresh speculative demand taking control. It looks more like stronger hands preparing the move first. That is the psychology here. The crowd does not buy the lows. It buys strength after the structure already looks safer. Older capital knows that. It tightens supply first, lifts the market first, and leaves late buyers to pay up later. The handoff is not fully there yet. But the setup for it is already being built 🧸 DYOR

$BTC smart money built the base. Dumb money still has not fully shown up That is what these three metrics are saying together. LTH Realized Cap is sitting near the highs of the whole window. STH Realized Cap is still near the lows. Multi-Timeframe Momentum already turned back positive and is now pushing higher. That is not the structure of a market being driven by fresh short-term demand. It is the structure of a market where stronger hands did the hard part first. The smart money does not need the crowd at the lows. It builds the base first. It tightens supply first. It lets momentum recover first. The crowd comes later, when price is already higher and the move already looks safer. That is the real setup on the right edge. STH still looks late. Their realized cap has not rebuilt with the same force. That means the fast money still has not fully come back. Strong hands already bought. Weak hands will have to pay higher 🧸 DYOR

$BTC when profit gets crowded and pain spreads through supply Percent of Supply in Profit shows how much of the circulating supply is still in profit - and, on the other side of the same read, how much pain has already spread through the market. Near 100%, almost everyone is above cost. That is euphoria. Near 50% or below, loss has spread through a large part of supply. That is pain. On March, 2020, BTC fell to $5K and the metric dropped to 43.97%. On November, 2022, BTC traded at $15K and the metric fell to 48.27%. Those were real pain regimes. At the other end, the 2025 top pushed the metric to full saturation. On October, 2025, BTC printed $124K and Percent of Supply in Profit was effectively 100%. Almost the whole market was in profit. This metric does not mark the exact turn. It shows when the market is already crowded near an extreme. Right now, BTC is around $81K and the metric stands at 64.79%. That is far above the pain seen in 2020 and 2022, but still far below the profit saturation of the 2025 top. The February 2026 flush pushed BTC down to $60K, but the metric only fell to 56.26%. That was price damage, not full market depression. Today’s reading sits between those two ends 🧸 DYOR

$BTC sell-side liquidity is stacked right above price on the depth heatmap Coinbase spot has 173 BTC around $84K Binance, Bybit, OKX, and HTX spot add 122 BTC near $83K and 147 BTC near $85K Perpetual books are heavier. Around 2,400 BTC sits between $83K and $83.5K across Binance, Bybit, OKX, and Bitget That is real overhead supply 🧸 DYOR

$BTC bounced. USDT ERC-20 liquidity still has not turned cleanly This chart does not track price direction by itself. It tracks whether USDT ERC-20 liquidity is expanding or contracting relative to its recent base. That matters because the strongest parts of the move were not just price-led. They had liquidity behind them. You can see that in late 2024 and again through the stronger parts of 2025. BTC pushed higher while USDT ERC-20 Liquidity On stayed active. That changed in November 2025, when liquidity started to contract. December brought a new expansion wave, and the peak came in January 2026. After that, liquidity weakened again and BTC rolled over with it. Yes, the metric bounced a bit off the April low. But it is still below zero, and it still sits below the February 2026 level. On the right edge, liquidity still looks like contraction, not expansion 🧸 DYOR