1. Don't rush the flat, let it play out. Based on my math, it may last another 1-2 weeks.
2. Although I think we will visit $78,000 - $82,000 area before a drop to $50,000, I'm not rushing into LONG positions. We will have our time.
3. The closer your purchases are to $64,000 - $65,000 support — the better. You either buy the support or the breakout. There is no point in buying the middle line.
4. I expect Altcoins to outperform Bitcoin on the next move up, so once the local up-trend is confirmed (breakout or at least compressing of $72,000) — I will focus on alt setups, not bitcoin.
5. Keep in mind that our final destination — $50,000 (not the absolute bottom, just the next target of the bearish cycle). If you want to catch every possible move, it is better to start building your SHORT in the Target Zone (low leverage only).
6. Invalidation of this setup — breakdown of the $64,000 support. If it happens, I will cut losses and switch my focus to SHORTs. $BTC
Stablecoin supply has remained flat since October, ETF inflows have turned negative, DAT inflows have stalled, and the volume of funds raised has returned to bear market levels. When inflows from all major sources simultaneously slow, price movement typically follows.
The only real factors that could be driving this are the accumulation of RWAs, the gradual return of major players to DeFi, and the potential positive impact of the CLARITY Act.
If these three factors don't lead to real capital inflows, the situation will remain devoid of liquidity.
The weekend was very successful. We caught some really strong moves in the market, and as long as the market keeps giving opportunities we keep taking them.
I’m still open to working with you. Don’t wait while others are already making moves. I’m glad to see every one of you and I’ll be happy to help grow your balance.
In a bear market, the key is to take your time. Unlike bull markets, where reversals happen quickly, bearish phases last for months and don't end abruptly.
Looking at the bigger picture, rather than just daily fluctuations, the picture remains weak. Despite some positive ETF days, the cumulative net flow over the last 10 trading days remains negative (around -18,000 BTC). This means there's no sustainable demand yet.
A reversal doesn't start with a single strong day, but with a systematic return of capital to the market. Until that happens, upward movements look more like noise within a bear market.
BTC has been in its current drawdown for over four months, having lost more than 50% from its October peak. This isn't unique by BTC standards. But when a drawdown exceeds 100 days, history shows that recovery usually takes months, and sometimes years, not weeks.
Many influencers feel the same but are very scared to post this. I think crypto market finally deserves some fresh air to breath.
- Indicators and oscillators are oversold - Sales are gradually decreasing, while purchases are increasing (spot) - Meanwhile, the crowd started opening shorts - Huge profile volumes are spotted near $64,000 - $65,000 support - Stocks are dumping, while crypto is staying strong - Fear&Greed Index is 5 (meme argument but still)
As the result, I expect to see some local growth towards $72,000 resistance and probably even $76,000 (if the previous one is broken up) and then dump continuation.
🙅♂️ SETUP INVALIDATION: Breakdown of the $64,000 support level. In this case we will go straight short down to $52,000 zone.