CEO JHANG

Something subtle is happening beneath the surface.
The ratio structure between Bitcoin and alts is compressing again — not violently, not emotionally… just quietly. And historically, the quiet phases are the ones that matter most.
Look back at 2017.
Look back at 2021.
Both cycles shared the same rhythm:
• Extended underperformance against BTC
• Months of boredom and disbelief
• Slow capital positioning
• Then sudden, aggressive expansion
Right now feels similar.
The Compression Phase
Alt/BTC structure isn’t exploding — it’s coiling.
Dominance has pushed hard for months.
Sentiment toward alts is muted.
Liquidity is selective, not euphoric.
That’s typically how rotation begins — not with noise, but with positioning.
Smart capital doesn’t wait for narratives to trend.
It accumulates during indifference.
The Classic Cycle Playbook
The recurring strategy across cycles has been simple:
Accumulate during boredom.
Hold through skepticism.
Distribute into retail FOMO 60–120 days later.
But cycles evolve.
Liquidity conditions today are tighter.
Macro sensitivity is higher.
Institutional flows change rotation speed.
Not every consolidation becomes a 100x expansion.
Structure matters. Timing matters. Liquidity matters more than ever.
What Makes This Different
In prior cycles, retail frenzy fueled altseason.
Now?
Capital rotates faster.
Narratives mature quicker.
Momentum phases compress in time.
If a rotation begins, it may be sharper — and shorter.
The window may not stay open long.
The Real Question
Is this early-stage accumulation before Altseason 2026…
Or just another false rotation inside a broader BTC-dominant regime?
The chart won’t announce it.
It will shift quietly — then suddenly.
And by the time it feels obvious, positioning will already be crowded.
Smart money moves before the story spreads.

I don’t view this market as random volatility.
I view it as a structured six-stage process that repeats every cycle because the drivers repeat: liquidity mechanics, leverage expansion and collapse, and predictable human behavior under stress.
Right now, $BTC is in Stage 4 of this bear market sequence.
Let’s break the structure down clearly.
Stage 1 — Euphoria & Leverage Saturation
This was the 115K–125K phase.
• Extreme bullish sentiment
• Aggressive upside spikes
• Sideways grind at elevated levels
• “Risk has disappeared” psychology
• Absurd price targets everywhere
Under the surface, the market was overleveraged and overloaded with late entrants. This stage always ends quietly before it ends violently.
Stage 2 — Psychological Breakdown
The key level this cycle: $100K.
Once that level broke, the tone shifted instantly.
This phase is designed to:
• Shock short-term investors
• Trigger leverage liquidations
• Remove reaction time
• Create panic before recalibration
The October 10 crash — the largest liquidation event in crypto history — fits perfectly here. It was fast, intentional, mechanical.
Retail didn’t react. The market moved first.
Stage 3 — Mechanical Repricing & Bear Confirmation
After psychology cracks, speed increases.
From 97K to 60K in roughly 30 days — nearly a 50% wipeout of market cap.
This is the fastest, most brutal phase.
• No time to hedge
• No time to reduce exposure
• Leverage forced out
• Panic widespread
Stage 3 confirms the bear structurally.
The violent mechanical flush is likely behind us.
Stage 4 — Dehydration & Psychological Torture (Current Phase)
This is where we are now.
Stage 4 is not violent. It is exhausting.
• Sideways movement inside a defined range
• Fake breakouts and breakdowns
• Liquidity traps above and below
• Weak hands slowly giving up
Sideways markets create the most liquidity.
They trap breakout buyers.
They trap breakdown sellers.
They frustrate everyone.
Retail says:
“Better to sell now — it will drop another 30–40%.”
This is when short-term holder capitulation peaks — and on-chain data confirms that behavior.
I expect the range to persist for months, not weeks.
Short-term, I’ve placed bids between 57–60K for tactical bounces — but this does not change my broader expectation of lower targets later.
Stage 5 — True Capitulation
This is emotional destruction.
• Panic among experienced holders
• Forced selling
• Possible exchange failures or macro shock
• Black swan narratives
Originally I projected 50–60K as bottom.
Then 40–50K.
With current macro stress (REPO markets, global liquidity tightening), I now consider 35–45K the ultimate capitulation zone.
That would represent the final liquidity grab.
Stage 6 — Stabilization & Structural Reversal
This is when:
• Volatility remains high
• Sentiment screams for 10K
• Retail wants “just one more drop”
• Large players accumulate aggressively
Retail always misses this phase.
They sell Stage 4.
They panic in Stage 5.
They wait for lower prices in Stage 6.
Then the next bull begins without them.
Where We Stand
Stage 4.
The violent mechanical crash is likely behind us.
Now comes the psychological damage phase.
Regret.
Recalculation.
Delayed exit plans.
The biggest lesson remains:
When price moves fast → reaction time disappears.
When price moves slowly → discipline disappears.
Understanding the stage prevents emotional decision-making.
My heavy accumulation begins between Stage 5 and Stage 6 — not before.
This pattern has repeated across every Bitcoin cycle.
Liquidity changes. Macro changes.
Human behavior does not.