Takd

“Where can I get the most upside for the least risk?”
That answer changes depending on where we are in the market cycle.
🟡 Early cycle: Safety
⚪️ Mid cycle: Efficiency
🟢 Late cycle: Speculation
As returns compress at the top currently in Gold and Silver capital has no choice but to move down the risk curve to preserve return potential.
It’s not that investors suddenly become reckless.
The risk stays the same, but the upside shrinks.
That forces capital to rotate elsewhere, naturally flowing into smaller market-cap assets, where the same liquidity can create far larger price moves.
Gold → Silver → Bitcoin → ETH & large caps → mid caps → small caps → memes
This progression isn’t driven by emotion — it’s driven by efficiency.
And only after liquidity moves do narratives appear:
🟡 “Gold is pumping because faith in fiat is collapsing”
⚪️ “Silver is pumping due to global supply shortages”
🟠 “Bitcoin is pumping because it’s digital gold”
In reality, it’s the same liquidity being recycled rotating through markets and generating new stories as it goes.
Capital enters gold, then exits.
Enters silver, then exits.
Enters Bitcoin, then exits.
Enters altcoins, then exits.
With each step, the returns increase, not because more money enters the system, but because liquidity is being pushed into thinner, more illiquid markets.
Picture a large reservoir at the top of a structure.
Below it sit progressively smaller containers.
When the top reservoir overflows, it doesn’t take much for the lower containers to spill — each one needs less and less water to overflow.
The water hasn’t increased.
The containers have just gotten smaller.
That’s why the largest moves always happen at the end of the cycle.
Liquidity flows downstream into illiquid assets, and even modest inflows create violent price action.
We’re only in the early stages of this process.
Enjoy 🍻