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Tokyo Rebels: Japan Rejects U.S. Order to Halt Imports from Russia
Japan’s new Prime Minister Sanae Takaiči has taken a bold stance in her first major diplomatic test. Despite a direct request from Donald Trump during their Tuesday meeting in Tokyo, the Japanese government has refused to gradually phase out imports of Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG).
According to two Japanese government officials, Takaiči made it clear to Trump that restricting Russian LNG is “difficult to impossible,” as it currently covers around 9% of Japan’s total energy needs.
Energy Reality vs. U.S. Pressure
The United States has been urging its allies to stop purchasing Russian oil and gas from Rosneft and Lukoil, aiming to weaken Moscow’s revenues amid the war in Ukraine. Tokyo, however, is refusing to comply.
“Halting imports would only please China and Russia,” Takaiči reportedly told Trump, according to Nikkei. She explained that such a move would simply redirect Russian energy exports toward Beijing and New Delhi, without meaningfully reducing the Kremlin’s income.
Japan also has economic stakes in Russia’s Sakhalin-2 project, where Japanese companies Mitsui and Mitsubishi hold significant shares. A sudden withdrawal, she warned, would cause a sharp rise in domestic electricity prices and threaten Japan’s energy stability.
Why Japan Needs Russian Gas
The Sakhalin-2 LNG project provides Japan with strategic northern supplies that cannot easily be replaced. Most contracts remain valid until 2028–2033, and replacing them would mean billions in additional costs.
Despite increasing imports of U.S. LNG, Japan is trying to maintain a diversified supplier portfolio to avoid dependence on any single country. The Japanese Minister of Industry recently stated that replacing Russian gas would immediately raise household electricity prices.
Currently, Japan purchases less than 1% of its oil from Russia, under a temporary sanctions exemption that expires in December. Most of its crude oil comes from the Middle East.
Global Impact of U.S. Sanctions
As Washington tightens its sanctions on Russian energy, the global diesel market is undergoing major disruptions. Earlier this month, the European Union approved a ban on imports of fuel refined from Russian crude, set to take effect in January 2026.
This move closes a loophole that previously allowed refineries in India and Turkey to process Russian crude and export the refined products back to Europe. The decision has triggered panic among traders, who are now scrambling to secure alternative diesel supplies—particularly for Europe, the world’s largest diesel importer.
As a result, refining margins have surged nearly 20% to $29 per barrel, the highest level since February 2024, according to LSEG data.
Where Russian Diesel Goes
According to Kpler shipping data, Rosneft and Lukoil together account for 39% of Russia’s diesel exports—roughly 320,000 barrels per day.
🔹 Turkey is the largest buyer, taking 36% of seaborne exports
🔹 Brazil follows with 18%
🔹 China is expected to absorb part of the excess via the “gray market”
The rest of Russia’s diesel often gets blended or rebranded to disguise its origin—creating an expanding parallel energy network beyond Western sanctions.
Japan Between Washington and Reality
Prime Minister Takaiči’s stance marks a new chapter in Japan–U.S. relations.
On one side lies political friendship with Trump and pressure from the West;
on the other, the harsh economic reality of an island nation that imports over 90% of its energy.
Takaiči made it clear that Tokyo will not risk an energy crisis for the sake of symbolism.
For Japan, the priority now is to survive the winter—even if it means straining ties with Washington.
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