$BTC Tidak ada yang istimewa, hanya struktur pasar yang bi | Bluechip di Binance Square

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Tidak ada yang istimewa, hanya struktur pasar yang biasa.✔️

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BITCOIN'S $2 TRILLION SECRET No proof-of-work cryptocurrency has ever survived on transaction fees alone. Bitcoin is about to attempt exactly this. The numbers: Transaction fees today: 1% of miner revenue. Required to maintain security: 100x current levels. Average fee needed: $85 per transaction. Average fee now: $0.62. Princeton researchers proved in 2016 that fee-only mining is fundamentally unstable. 382 academic citations. Zero successful refutations. When fees replace subsidies, miners gain profitable strategies to attack rather than protect the network. The common assumption that cheap nuclear and solar energy will solve this is mathematically false. If energy costs fall 80%, attack costs fall 80%. The security equation remains unchanged. Game theory does not care about electricity prices. Blockstream's Director of Research calls this "a scary phase change that no other coin has gone through." Bitcoin Core developer James O'Beirne: "We might have only two halvings left before this becomes a serious issue." By 2032, block subsidies fall to 25% of current levels. By 2036, to 12.5%. Every other major proof-of-work chain chose perpetual emission or abandoned proof-of-work entirely. Monero emits forever. Ethereum switched to proof-of-stake. Only Bitcoin is attempting the unprecedented. Sixteen years of data show fee revenue stuck at 1-4% regardless of adoption, price, or market conditions. The thesis that fees would naturally rise has had sixteen years to prove itself. It has not. The world's most valuable proof-of-work network secures $2 trillion through a mechanism that academic consensus describes as unstable and that no cryptocurrency has ever made work. This is not prediction. This is mathematics. The experiment is running. Results arrive by 2032. $BTC

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THE FED'S CIVIL WAR HAS BEGUN December 10, 2025. The Federal Reserve just fractured in three directions simultaneously. Three members dissented. One demanded deeper cuts. Two demanded no cuts at all. This is not disagreement over pace. This is disagreement over reality itself. The numbers tell a story the headlines missed: 9-3 vote. The most divided Fed since 2019. Governor Stephen Miran, Trump's appointee still holding his White House job on unpaid leave, voted for 50 basis points. Hours earlier, Kevin Hassett, the frontrunner to replace Powell in May, publicly said he would do the same. Meanwhile, two regional bank presidents, including former dove Austan Goolsbee, voted for no cut whatsoever. A dove turning hawk is the canary in the coal mine. Why? The 43 day government shutdown wiped October's economic data from existence. The unemployment rate for October 2025 will never be known. Powell admitted the Fed is "driving in the fog." Yet they cut anyway. And simultaneously announced $40 billion per month in Treasury purchases. They call it "Reserve Management." Not QE. Inflation sits 45% above target. Easing and tightening. Cutting and warning. Expanding the balance sheet while projecting a hawkish pause. This is not monetary policy. This is managed contradiction. Powell's term ends May 15, 2026. The succession battle is already live. The December vote was a preview of the war to come. The institution that stabilizes the world's reserve currency cannot agree on what danger looks like, which direction it is coming from, or which tool to use against it. For eighty years, markets priced Fed consensus. That assumption died yesterday. Adjust accordingly. $BTC

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$BTC 🤷‍♂️

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$BTC Locking in 25%. 4% drop since entry. This trade is something I will be holding for a few months. Round trips are possible. Before the next leg down, we will likely build liquidity. So, I will be twapping in & out of my swing & only adding to entry above 95-96K.

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BITCOIN - PATH A or B? I've still got my eye on this bear flag. It's inherently a bearish pattern and it still hasn't broken above the megaphone lower boundary, which also isn't good. If I had to guess which will happen, I'm going to guess 60% chance it's path B, around mid December. Target would be $74k-$80k. Both paths A & B end in a nice relief rally bounce, so hodlers need not worry (if these come to fruitition). Trust me, I'm looking forward to the bullish move up, but I don't want to discount the possibiliity of a move down first, which is what a bull flag says is the most likely outcome. Lastly, I hope that we just go route A. See below for zoomed-in view, as well as a diagram of its TA structure. $BTC

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