$BTC is up for 5 days this year and has added nearly $100B to the market cap.
Many now believe $81k was the absolute bottom, but the data doesn’t support that.
Let me tell you why.
In a real uptrend, Bitcoin and Bitcoin dominance rally first.
This time, altcoins are leading, and BTC dominance is falling.
That’s a typical relief rally, not the beginning of a fresh cycle.
And the whale behavior confirms it.
Large holders from 100-1,000 BTCwallets are still net sellers.
The same cohort was accumulating during the Q3 2024 and Q1 2025 bottoms.
Along with this, Bitcoin apparent demand (net BTC accumulation by active holders) is still in a downtrend.
After every cycle top, this metric falls.
Bitcoin often rallies after big drops, but those rallies have never broken the previous all-time high.
Technically, this has happened before.
After the 2021 top, BTC reclaimed the 50W EMA and then immediately dropped below it.
That doesn't mean there's no upside here for Bitcoin Btc can still rally toward $102K-$104K near the 200D SMA, just like the previous cycle.
But after that, a fresh downtrend will start.
And for those talking about macro data, here's the most important one.
The ISM indicator is at a 14-month low and is currently in a strong downtrend.
Every major rally has happened when ISM > 50, and this could take months in 2026.
My guess is that ISM expansion, a new Fed chair, etc. will all happen in H2 2026, which will coincide with the 4-year cycle bottom.
#BTC走势分析 #btc70k