๐ WIN RATE & MARKET SENTIMENT (FGI) โ updated through 2026-01-17
Community scalping data still shows a very weak, slightly negative link between FGI and win rate (r โ -0.18). FGI isnโt a linear โentry signalโ; meaningful divergence appears mainly in extreme zones, especially high greed. In the 20โ<80 range, performance gaps across Fear / Neutral / Greed are small, and the Greed band is slightly below the overall average in the current dataset.
๐ Quick read
Extreme Fear (<20) remains the highest average win-rate band (but sample is still small). Fear (20โ<40) stays above the baseline, Neutral (40โ<60) sits near average, Greed (60โ<80) is flat/slightly weaker, and Extreme Greed (โฅ80) remains the weakest zone.
๐ Avg win rate by FGI band (days)
Extreme Greed (โฅ80): 40.52% โ n=25
Greed (60โ<80): 45.06% โ n=215
Neutral (40โ<60): 45.47% โ n=136
Fear (20โ<40): 46.84% โ n=164
Extreme Fear (<20): 47.09% โ n=24
Overall average: 45.56%
Share of days above average: 12.00% โข 41.86% โข 45.59% โข 56.71% โข 58.33%
๐ Scalping takeaways
FGI โฅ80: lower TP expectations, tighten risk, avoid stretching targets in fast moves.
FGI 20โ<80: keep R:R discipline and entry/exit rules; heavy strategy shifts are usually unnecessary.
FGI <20: statistically friendlier backdrop, but sample is still limitedโexecution and drawdown control come first.
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