$BTC
I believe this is the most important chart to be watching right now: USDT.D.
The PA closely resembles 2021. When we first tested major resistance back then, we ranged for several months before eventually breaking higher, during which BTC dropped from 45K to 24K.
Bear markets typically last around 300 days. We’re currently only about 70 days in. Given how fast price is moving, the bottom may come sooner than Q4 2026 rather than later.
With that in mind, as long as USDT.D remains below resistance, BTC can theoretically bounce. I’d be watching for a deviation above resistance followed by acceptance back into the range. That would be my long trigger.
Despite BTC looking weak, USDT.D is still at resistance until proven otherwise. If USDT.D breaks out to the upside, BTC likely moves toward 74K and 68K. These are my inevitable targets, though it would be surprising to reach that region without an extended consolidation first.
We’ll see how it plays out.
🚨 This is insane level of manipulation.
8:30 a.m.
CPI came in lower than expected.
- On the bullish CPI news, Bitcoin pumped $2217, from $87,260 to $89,477 in just 60 minutes.
- $70B added to the crypto market.
- $94 million worth of shorts liquidated.
10:00 a.m.
The manipulation starts.
- Bitcoin dropped $3723, from $89,363 to $85,640 in the next 90 minutes.
- $117B erased from crypto market cap.
- $100 million worth of longs liquidated.
$BTC
Crypto trading is experiencing a structural shift:
For years, serious liquidity lived off-chain on centralized exchanges, such as Coinbase and Binance.
Now, decentralized exchanges are becoming MORE efficient.
For example, a $1 million Solana, $SOL , trade on Solana decentralized exchanges (DEXs) now moves price just ~5 basis points, per @JupiterExchange-1
By comparison, Coinbase sees price swings of ~12 basis points, more than DOUBLE what Solana DEXs are seeing.
Institutional-grade execution is rapidly moving on-chain.
🚨 BANK OF JAPAN INTEREST RATE DECISION IS COMING TOMORROW.
The market expects 98.4% odds of a 25 bps rate hike.
Here’s what happened when BOJ raised rates in the past.
July 31, 2024:
BOJ raised rates to 0.25%
Bitcoin dropped 26% in 8 days
Jan 24, 2025:
BOJ raised rates to 0.50%
Bitcoin dropped 25% in 20 days
Now BOJ is expected to raise rates to 0.75%, the highest level since 1995.
Just like the past, markets could see some downside around the decision.
But if you look at the chart, every BOJ driven BTC dump was followed by a strong recovery and new ATH.
$BTC
Following many private messages I’ve received on X, several of you mentioned that it’s becoming difficult to keep up with everything on my profile due to the number of posts I publish each day.
So I want to ask you directly.
🔹 Option 1 — Real-time coin analysis
Short, technical, instant posts (structure, levels, liquidity).
👉 In this case, I would need one volunteer from the community to handle 50+ Alpha Call posts per day, so this flow stays organized without overwhelming the main feed.
🔹 Option 2 — Macro & news-driven analysis articles
Fewer posts, but more structured: macro context, cycles, monetary regimes, long-term positioning.
🎯 The goal is simple: clarity and value over noise.
📊 Poll
👉 What would you prefer to see as the main focus on this account?
Thank you to everyone who’s been supporting this, your feedback will shape what comes next.
$BTC