Why do I think we'll see a relief rally instead of new ATHs?
$BTC is in a bear market. As such, it is likely to continue the trend until a bottom has formed. Remember: "The trend tends to continue".
Furthermore, if February ($60k) was the bottom (what everyone wants) that would mean BTC had only been in a bear market for 4 total months (Oct->Feb). I'm all for a shorter bear market, but the typical bear market is 12 months. Could we have a slightly shorter bear market? Sure (or a slightly longer one, too). But having one be just 1/3 the length regular bear market, in terms of time? I doubt it. Bottom is a process that takes time. Read more:
[To put it in perspective: The Feb 5th low (60k) would be only 4 months into the bear market which would be extremely premature for a cycle bottom](https://app.binance.com/uni-qr/cpos/302327541582433?l=en&r=IMDB299R&uc=web_square_share_link&uco=oV54TKfDNUPqG1Rm8Od-Aw&us=copylink)
Furthermore, if Feb's $60k was the bottom, that would only be a 53% drop from top to bottom. Again, this would be very much below the typical bear cycle, in terms of drop percentage, even when accounting for diminshing returns/losses. Read more: [Notice this Patern](https://app.binance.com/uni-qr/cpos/305744947676194?l=en&r=IMDB299R&uc=web_square_share_link&uco=oV54TKfDNUPqG1Rm8Od-Aw&us=copylink)
Also, macro economic factors look bad. If the war in Iran ends, that's a start, but imo it's not enough to make up for all the other bad economic factors.
[6 Charts Demonstrating a Weak Macro Economic Picture](https://app.binance.com/uni-qr/cart/307189506796146?l=en&r=IMDB299R&uc=web_square_share_link&uco=oV54TKfDNUPqG1Rm8Od-Aw&us=copylink)
Lastly, the oil shortages caused by the slow-moving shipments is a delayed effect that has yet to be fully felt. The economy hasn't fully felt that damage yet, as the shortages haven't fully been felt yet.
You can disagree with me if you want, but I've referenced the reasons and logic for everything I've said in the links above.