WHAT I'M ABOUT TO TELL YOU ISN'T IN ANY WALL STREET RESEARCH NOTE
Everyone's debating which domino falls first: Japan? Private credit? Equity concentration? Consumer collapse?
They're asking the wrong question.
I've spent 400+ hours analyzing funding market data most analysts never see.
Here's what I found:
All four risks share ONE hidden vulnerability.
Cross-currency basis dislocation + repo market stress.
When that channel spikes, they don't fall sequentially.
They fall TOGETHER. Within days. Not months.
The evidence is already flashing:
→ Treasury fails hit $30.5B last week. 8-year high.
→ Fed's RRP buffer: collapsed from $2.4T to $1.5B. Gone.
→ Japanese hedge ratios at 14-year lows. Exposed.
→ Public BDCs pricing 10-15% defaults vs 2% reported.
→ Subprime auto at 15.78%. Above 2008 peak. Right now.
The mainstream sees four separate problems.
I see one detonator.
My prediction:
If JPY/USD cross-currency basis widens past -75bps for 5+ days before March 31, 2026, you'll see synchronized forced selling across Japan, private credit, AND equities within 72 hours.
Not sequential dominoes.
Simultaneous collapse.
The window is January-March 2026.
The BOJ meets January 22-23.
The Fed meets January 28-29th.
Japanese fiscal year-end is March 31st.
Nobody is watching the right indicator.
Now you are.
Bookmark this. Set your reminder.
Let's see if this ages well.
$BTC
💫💖🌹 @Square-Creator-fdf154d301d7c "Réflexions"
$BTC Bitcoin n’a pas évolué.
C’est notre regard qui a mûri.
Nous l’avons pris pour un jeu,
puis pour un danger,
avant d’y voir un chiffre.
Un jour, le silence devient clair :
ce n’est pas un outil de plus,
c’est une ligne morale gravée dans le code.
Quand tout vacille,
ce qui ne peut être altéré
devient refuge.
Merci pour tes publications 🙏
Bienveillament ✨️
#PATRICIABM 🌹💖💫
💫💖🌹 BONJOUR @patiencevertus
🌟 TRADING : STOP LOSS & TAKE PROFIT (OBLIGATOIRES) 🌟 Si tu trades sans Stop Loss et Take Profit, tu trades sans protection ❌
Voici l’essentiel à comprendre
🛑 STOP LOSS (Limiter les pertes)
Le Stop Loss est un ordre qui ferme automatiquement ta position quand le prix va contre toi afin d’éviter une grosse perte.
📌 Exemple :
Achat à 100 €
Stop Loss à 95 €
➡️ Si le prix baisse à 95 €, la position se ferme automatiquement
➡️ Perte contrôlée : -5 €
Le Stop Loss se place là où ton analyse est invalidée, pas au hasard.
🎯 TAKE PROFIT (Sécuriser les gains)
Le Take Profit est un ordre qui ferme automatiquement ta position quand le prix atteint ton objectif de gain.
📌 Exemple :
Achat à 100 €
Take Profit à 110 €
➡️ Si le prix monte à 110 €, la position se ferme
➡️ Gain sécurisé : +10 €
⚖️ RÈGLE D’OR DU TRADING
✔ Toujours placer le Stop Loss AVANT le Take Profit
✔ Ne jamais déplacer un Stop Loss par émotion
✔ Risquer seulement 1 à 2 % du capital par trade
🥰 Conclusion
📉 Stop Loss = survie
📈 Take Profit = discipline
🧠 Les deux = trading professionnel
J'espère que j’ai répondu à ta question 🙏
Bienveillament ✨️,
#PATRICIABM 🌹💖💫
HAINAN: THE $113 BILLION MISPRICING
On December 18, 2025, China executed the largest customs architecture change since WTO accession.
Wall Street coverage: Paragraph 17.
What actually happened:
Hainan became a separate customs territory.
74% of all tariff lines now enter at ZERO.
The 30% value-added rule lets processed goods enter mainland China completely tariff-free.
Read that again.
Vietnamese factories targeting Chinese consumers now face a 15-40% structural cost disadvantage versus Hainan processing.
First shipment already cleared: 179,000 tonnes of petrochemicals. Documented savings: RMB 10 million.
The arbitrage is LIVE.
The consensus narrative: "Hainan is duty-free shopping that collapsed when outbound travel resumed."
The actual story: Duty-free was the sizzle. The 30% rule is the steak.
Every "China plus one" supply chain thesis requires recalculation.
PREDICTION (screencap this):
By December 2026, Hainan's share of utilized FDI rises from 2% to 5%+ of China's national total.
Singapore transshipment volumes for China-bound ASEAN cargo decline 15-20%.
At least three major multinationals announce Hainan processing facilities.
The market is looking at tourism numbers while a trade architecture shift unfolds.
Smart money positioning has begun. The window before consensus recognition is narrowing.
When historians study the 2025 "China reopening" narrative, they'll note that the actual reopening was a customs border, not pandemic restrictions.
Most won't see this until it's priced.
The arithmetic is merciless.
$BTC
Bitcoin versus gold and silver:
The Bitcoin-to-silver ratio is now down to 1,104, the lowest since September 2023.
Since May, the ratio has dropped -67% as silver has significantly outperformed Bitcoin.
At the same time, the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio is down to 19, the lowest since November 2023, and is down -50% since January.
By comparison, the ratios stood at 680 and 9, respectively, at the 2022 bear market low.
Meanwhile, the gold-to-silver ratio is down to 57x, the lowest since April 2013, nearly halving since March.
Can crypto catch up in 2026?
$BTC
🚨 SOFTBANK'S $20 BILLION SECRET
In 4 days, the largest margin loan in tech history either funds—or implodes.
On Nov 11th 2025, SoftBank quietly disclosed they've pledged $8.5 BILLION against Arm shares.
$11.5B more available.
33 banks participating.
Nobody's talking about this.
Here's what Wall Street is missing:
Masayoshi Son has bet 54.6% of SoftBank's entire $224B NAV on ONE company.
The same man who turned $20M into $200B with Alibaba.
The same man who lost $70B in 14 months during the dot-com crash.
The same man who called WeWork "a stain on my life."
By Dec 31st 2025, he must transfer $22.5B to OpenAI.
If Arm drops 40%, margin calls begin.
The reflexivity is brutal: If traders smell blood, they sell Arm. Arm drops. Margin calls trigger. Forced liquidation. More selling.
This is how Archegos collapsed, except that was $10B.
This is 2x larger.
Son's thesis: Physical infrastructure becomes the binding constraint on AI.
Control the chips (Arm) + the models (OpenAI) + the power (Stargate $500B) = control civilization.
Either he's right and this becomes the greatest trade in venture history.
Or this becomes the margin call of the millennium.
By March 2026, SoftBank either trades at 2x NAV—or faces emergency asset sales.
There is no middle ground.
The fish that got away was $150B Nvidia. The fish he's chasing is bigger. The net is made of borrowed money.
Bookmark this. ⏰
$BTC
🚨 IT’S GETTING OUT OF CONTROL…
The China-U.S. silver spread just blew out to levels we’ve NEVER seen before.
China tightening silver exports isn’t about price control, it’s about domestic priority.
When Beijing starts licensing exports, global supply gets rationed whether traders like it or not.
The Shanghai premium tells you everything.
Physical silver is already trading well above Western spot prices, which means the paper market is lagging reality again.
Silver isn’t just a metal… It sits at the intersection of industrial demand, energy transition, and monetary stress.
Historically, moves like this show up right at the end of cycles, not at the beginning.
Higher costs bleed through to earnings fast, and it leaves central banks with bad choices and markets don’t like that… trust me.
Matter of fact, I believe a recession is coming sometime next year, probably Q3.
$BTC
I’ve watched countless people call for a super cycle this cycle, and every single one of them was wrong.
So here’s my bold prediction.
The real super cycle begins when precious metals roll over into a multi-year downtrend while Bitcoin, driven by absolute scarcity, breaks to new highs. That’s the true rotation. Boomers stay parked in gold, while a new generation of capital moves into a new asset class. Metals underperform, and Bitcoin absorbs the flow.
Look at gold in 1972 compared to where Bitcoin is heading into 2027. The setup is almost identical. It aligns perfectly with the idea that Bitcoin massively outperforms every asset class in the next cycle.
Gold’s market cap sits around $31.7 trillion. Bitcoin’s is roughly $1.83 trillion. Even at $200,000 per BTC, the market cap would only be about $5 trillion, still 6 times smaller than gold.
And as always, there will be reasons not to buy. This time it’s quantum computing/AI. Before that it was regulation, energy use, volatility. Fear always finds a new costume.
That fear will push people out of the market right before the real move begins.
I’ll be buying.
Because this is likely the last bear cycle where Bitcoin trades below $100,000.
Here’s my prediction. No filters. No hedging. No two sided bullshit. $BTC $XAU