Bitcoin has a very clear 4 year halving cycles which it followed all previous years.
Top of each cycle comes to November-December. Bottom forms 1-1.3 years after that top.
Bottom consolidation period usually correlates with 0.5-0.75 period of bearish cycles which corresponds with December'22-June'23. Since it doesn't yet look like BTC had final capitulation I believe we should see the bottom in the beginning of 2023 year (March-June). Most probably it will be 10540-12500 zone (see week chart below).
Target for beginning of 2024 year is 25-29k which should start a new bull run towards new all time high in November-December 2025. Sorry, but I will not play in Nostradamus trying to guess it.
Keep that chart in mind not to get too fearful or greedy. I've created it in December 2019 and it helped me to survive through all these years. Hope it will help you as well 🙏
Yesterday, the S&P 500 printed a new ATH — clear sign of a risk-on environment. Meanwhile, Gold and DXY were both bearish. BTC did nothing, which means it's lagging slightly behind equities — setting up for a possible catch-up rally.
✅ Longs on pullback — waiting for a proper dip. Nearest dynamic support is the Daily 20-SMA (~105800). Ideally, looking to catch long wicks into the 103200–104500 zone — aligning with 4H FVG and the developing Year VAH.
❌ Shorts — only after a liquidity grab above 108900, ideally wicks into the 110000 zone (key macro resistance / trap area). Enter only with clear rejection or engulfing candle on lower timeframes.
⚠️ Invalidation: If price breaks and holds above 110000 with volume, that could trigger trend expansion. Check the Weekly chart — breakout potential is clearly building.
🔀 Dynamic levels: • Q VAH at 107097 • D 20sma at 105825 • Y VAH at 103797
Missed $SEI entry by only 0,053% and it went up by 76% 😅
In any case, that coin remains on hype and higher timeframe chart looks attractive for more. So buying the dips can bring profits in mid term holding.
Level at ~0.253 is almost guaranteed for the dip. But too dangerous to bid blindly.
Next goes <0.231 and <0.212 zones. Safer to leave limit orders, but I'd be careful with hard stops under 0.191, as in max pain scenario price will surely wipe out this obvious SL level.
⏰ Alarms set for lower levels and will appear in my free TG once crossed
$BTC reached the nearest target zone just below the 2024 high at 108366 ✅
I might be wrong, but this slow staircase up feels like it's setting the stage for an elevator drop back down to the 104500–103300 zone.
The big question now is: Will we get one more push above 108900, or will price dump sooner than expected?
That said, even if a drop follows, a break above 108900 (last week’s high) would still be a strong bullish signal, as it would wipe out all the bearish progress made during the war-driven selloff.
🔀 Dynamic levels: • Q VAH at 107025 • D 20sma at 105780 • Y VAH at 103740
$BTC keeps pushing higher. The next liquidity pool likely sits above the June 17th swing high — a lower timeframe zone that extends all the way up to the 2024 high at 108366.
A break above 108900 (last week’s high) would be a strong bullish signal, as it would erase all the bearish progress made during the war-driven selloff.
That said, even if BTC pumps that high, I still expect it to eventually revisit the 104500–103600 zone.
Meanwhile: — Nasdaq just printed a new ATH — S&P 500 is on the verge of doing the same — Gold is falling as capital rotates into risk-on assets
So the big question is: Is this the greatest bull trap of all time — or are we entering the bull season earlier than expected?
I believe we should see re-test of previous channel bottom. May close at 2527 will be the nearest resistance on the way. If price manage to reclaim that level, next will be 2680 / 2788.
At the same time, in case of rejection from ~2500 more downside moves may follow.
DCA Ladder Levels & Position Size (per 1% total capital risk): 1️⃣ 112.0 - 1.97% of capital 2️⃣ 106.4 - 2.67% of capital (av. cost 108.8) 3️⃣ 100.8 - 4.36% of capital (av. cost 104.9)
🔢 Total capital used (if full ladder fills): 9.00% 💩 Stop Loss: two Day candles close below 93.1
Saturday's dip came as Trump allegedly bombed 3 Iranian nuclear sites — a stark reminder that markets move not just on charts, but chaos. With global leaders playing with fire, predicting the next headline-driven move is a gambler's game🎲
📊 Technicals Still Matter: • Year VAH ≈ Friday close → first key dynamic S/R • Acceptance above = possible bounce • Rejection? Eyes on ~98k (breakout zone) • Further down: 94.4k = Weekly 20-SMA + Yearly VWAP support combo
The line between bounce and breakdown is razor-thin⚖️
📣Is this a buy-the-fear moment or the start of a bigger unwind?
💬Drop your thoughts & retweet to spark the debate.
Finally, the move happened — $BTC just closed the 4H FVG, liquidating a large number of late shorts. Theoretically, this is the zone to watch for a potential short. But to stay on the safe side, any trade here should be based on clear price action confirmation, at least on the 15m timeframe.
The move is still unfolding, and if bullish momentum continues, price could extend to around 108k.
A break above the next swing high at 108900 would be a bullish signal — opening up a setup to catch dips down to 106k on the next leg lower.
Today is a bank holiday in the US, so only the EU session is active 🥳
On the Weekly, another doji is forming. The Daily shows a lack of sell pressure, with price bouncing back above the May close yesterday. Overall, the situation remains completely unpredictable — all we can do is make educated guesses.
Bullish case — despite Israel’s aggression toward Iran and Trump hinting at possible US involvement, $BTC is still holding above 100k 💪 That alone is a strong bullish sign, considering crypto is a high-risk asset and usually dumps first when global chaos begins.
The stock market didn’t crash either, though bullish momentum there seems to be fading. Yet major indices are still moving sideways, not far from their all-time highs.
To me, all this suggests one of two outcomes: • Either we get a wave of relief news that pumps everything higher, • Or the war escalates and markets collapse like in March 2020.
One way or another, the market feels like a compressed spring — ready to snap with a sharp impulse move.
$ETH touched lower border of it's rising channel. That was 5th re-test 👀
Either price return back above May close at 2527 and start growing back to the top of that channel, or it stays below, which increase chances for more violent dip to happen. In this case liquidity under 2433 low is the nearest attractive target.
$BTC dumped from the developing quarterly VAH, sweeping liquidity below 104069 (June 13th NY low) in a cascade of 13 consecutive red 1H candles.
Such a dump has only occurred a few times in Bitcoin’s history — during the 2020 COVID crash, the May 2021 correction, and several instances in 2022.
Those cases led to 50–60% corrections (from the full move). But right now, BTC is still trading around Monday’s open. Is that a sign of exceptional strength — or just a pause before the real move begins? I guess we’ll find out soon.
Doing TA at this point feels almost pointless — we’re just one tweet away from any price on the chart. Imagine there’s a portal... Trumpal )
I did take a long on yesterday’s dip, but can’t say I’m putting much faith in it. Major liquidity pools lie below, at 103300 and 102614 (last week’s low). The next comparable cluster above is only at 109760. So, for now, pushing lower looks like the easier path.
$BTC wiped out stops above 108400 and pulled back to the developing quarterly VAH, nearly tagging Friday’s close — a move that was inevitable.
Chances are today won’t bring any clear signal regarding market direction. We'll need to wait for today’s daily candle close: — A close above the developing Q VAH would be a bullish sign. — A return below it would suggest a bearish or at least cautious outlook.
Key levels remain attractive for a potential revisit: • Friday close: ~106027 • CME: 105600 • New York session: 105066
Reminder: the last two weekly candles closed as dojis. The monthly chart still rides on bullish momentum from April and May, but if it fails to fully realize its potential by the end of June, that momentum may fade away.
The price action aligned with the bullish scenario outlined in my Saturday review, rebounding above the May VWAP which resulted in breakout above developing quarterly VAH again. If find short term acceptance above same VAH, will grow higher to 108400 at least.
Friday closed at ~106027 | CME at 105600 | New York session at 105066
These levels remain attractive for a potential revisit. A prompt retest could signal strong bullish momentum, while a delayed revisit — after a rise to 107,800–108,900 — would suggest a less promising setup for a bounce.
$BTC closed its third consecutive week within the 105,500–105,600 range. Two of these weeks formed doji candles with wide wick ranges, signaling heightened market volatility. The market faced multiple waves of negative news, first Trump/Musk, then Israel starting another war, driving uncertainty to its peak.
$BTC bounced toward the 4H FVG, which aligns with the Daily 20-SMA and the developing quarterly VAH ✅
That was minimum target for the bounce and price got rejected from that strong resistance level back to May close at 104544.
Friday closed at ~105190 and that will be minimum target for the next week, regardless where price will be on Monday open. If there will be a dump during weekend, next week it will come back up. If there will be a pump over weekend, next week it will return back down. Very easy logic.
A bit early to summarize week PA, but so far it forms second doji in a row. Last week it had long buy tail, this week long sell tail. In the end price didn't move anywhere in two weeks. That says that market didn't make its mind about the future yet. Thanks to Trump and his fascist friend Netanyahu.