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Neither the author, Tim Fries, nor this website, The Tokenist, provide financial advice. Please consult our  website policy prior to making financial decisions.

Oil prices surged to near four-and-a-half-month highs as escalating Middle East tensions and President Trump’s ambiguous statements about potential US military involvement in the Israel-Iran conflict sent shockwaves through global energy markets.

WTI crude jumped 1.69% to $76.41 per barrel while Brent crude climbed 1.29% to $77.69, reflecting growing concerns over supply disruptions in the world’s most critical oil-producing region. The uncertainty has prompted major investment banks to warn of significant price spikes, with Goldman Sachs estimating a $10 per barrel geopolitical premium and Barclays warning of potential prices exceeding $100 if the conflict escalates further.

Geopolitical Risk Premium Drives Market Volatility

Goldman Sachs analysts have calculated that geopolitical tensions could add approximately $10 per barrel to Brent crude prices from current mid-$70s levels, though the bank acknowledges oil could exceed $90 if Iranian supply faces disruption.

The investment bank pointed to the ongoing attacks by Yemeni Houthis on vessels transiting the Bab el-Mandeb Strait as a stark example of Middle Eastern oil export vulnerability. These supply route disruptions have already demonstrated how quickly regional conflicts can impact global energy security.

President Trump’s cryptic statements regarding potential US military action have further amplified market uncertainty. When pressed about joining Israel’s bombing campaign against Iranian nuclear facilities, Trump told reporters, “I may do it. I may not do it. I mean, nobody knows what I’m going to do.” This deliberate ambiguity has created additional volatility as traders struggle to assess the likelihood of direct US involvement. The prospect of American military intervention represents a significant escalation that could trigger broader regional conflict and severe supply disruptions.

Goldman Sachs’ base-case scenario previously assumed Brent crude would average $60 per barrel in the final quarter without supply disruptions. However, this optimistic outlook appears increasingly unrealistic given the evolving geopolitical landscape and Trump’s apparent willingness to consider military action against Iran’s nuclear program.

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Oil Supply Disruption Risks and Market Response

Barclays has issued even more dire warnings about potential price movements, suggesting crude could surge above $100 per barrel if Middle East hostilities intensify significantly.

The bank specifically noted that Brent could reach $85 per barrel if just half of Iran’s oil exports were disrupted. Iran currently exports over 2 million barrels of crude daily, with nearly all shipments destined for China, making any supply interruption globally significant.

The oil market’s response has been swift and decisive, with energy commodities leading broader commodity gains amid the geopolitical uncertainty. Natural gas prices also climbed 0.53% to $4.010, while heating oil surged an impressive 4.19% to $2.639, reflecting broader energy sector strength. These price movements demonstrate how quickly geopolitical events can translate into tangible market impacts across the entire energy complex.

Despite the recent gains, oil prices retreated slightly as traders await clearer signals about US intentions and the ultimate scope of potential military action. Market participants remain highly sensitive to any developments that could either escalate or de-escalate the current crisis, with many adopting wait-and-see approaches while positioning for potential supply shocks.

Disclaimer: The author does not hold or have a position in any securities discussed in the article. All stock prices were quoted at the time of writing.

The post Oil Prices Gain as Middle East Tensions Flare Up Amid Speculations of US Involvement appeared first on Tokenist.

Neither the author, Tim Fries, nor this website, The Tokenist, provide financial advice. Please consult our  website policy prior to making financial decisions.

Nike (NYSE: NKE) is approaching its fiscal Q4 2025 earnings report on June 26, 2025, with the options market signaling heightened volatility expectations as the athletic apparel giant navigates significant headwinds.

Trading at $59.51 as of June 19, the stock has declined 20.43% year-to-date and faces a challenging consumer environment, intense competition from emerging brands like On Running and Hoka, and potential tariff pressures. The at-the-money June 27th $60 strike straddle is priced at approximately $5.70, representing 9.5% of the current stock price and suggesting options traders anticipate substantial post-earnings movement.

Nike’s Earnings Outlook: Expect a Challenging Quarter Ahead

Nike has guided investors to expect a “mid-teens” revenue decline for Q4, likely 13-15%, which is significantly worse than analyst expectations of an 11.4% drop to $11.07 billion.

This guidance reflects persistent challenges across key segments, with the company’s Q3 2025 results showing revenue of $11.3 billion, down 9% year-over-year. The decline was broad-based, with Nike Direct falling 12% and Wholesale dropping 7%, highlighting weakness across both digital and traditional retail channels.

Alternative data metrics paint a concerning picture for the upcoming quarter. Bloomberg Second Measure Observed Sales data declined 14.95% year-over-year through May 31st, significantly worse than the industry average decline of 7.9%. The company faces pressure in China, where sales declined 17% in Q3, representing a significant drag due to economic slowdown and job security concerns.

CEO Elliott Hill, who recently returned to execute the “Win Now” turnaround strategy, is focusing on innovation, wholesale partnerships, and brand repositioning. However, early progress may not be sufficient to offset macroeconomic headwinds and competitive pressures from brands like On Running and Hoka, which are gaining market share with innovative products in Nike’s traditional running category stronghold.

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Nike’s Stock Performance and Options Activity Signal Big Move Expected

Nike’s stock performance has been deeply concerning for investors, with the shares down 35.87% over the past year and 41.86% over three years, dramatically underperforming the S&P 500’s gains of 9% and 62.75% respectively.

The stock currently trades with a market capitalization of $87.84 billion and a trailing P/E ratio of 19.77, though the forward P/E of 28.49 suggests earnings pressure ahead. Key financial metrics show a profit margin of 9.43% and return on equity of 31.93%, but these figures face pressure from inventory markdowns and margin compression.

The options market is pricing in significantly more volatility than Nike’s historical post-earnings moves. Over the past decade, Nike has experienced an average earnings-related stock price movement of approximately 6% in the week following quarterly results. However, the current at-the-money straddle suggests traders expect a 9.5% move, indicating heightened uncertainty about the company’s ability to navigate current challenges.

Analyst sentiment remains mixed, with price targets ranging from a low of $40 to a high of $120, and an average target of $72.67 representing 22% upside from current levels. The wide range reflects uncertainty about the timeline and success of Nike’s turnaround efforts under Elliott Hill’s leadership. With earnings scheduled for June 26 after market close, the consensus EPS forecast stands at $0.11, dramatically lower than the $1.01 reported in the same quarter last year, highlighting the magnitude of Nike’s current challenges.

Disclaimer: The author does not hold or have a position in any securities discussed in the article. All stock prices were quoted at the time of writing.

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Unsurprisingly, it appears that OpenAI’s relationship with Microsoft is nearing exhaustion. According to the Wall Street Journal report on Monday, OpenAI is exploring a legal avenue out of its exclusive contract with Microsoft. Specifically, by seeking a federal regulatory review for potential antitrust law violations.

If such an antitrust complaint were to be deployed, it would serve as a nuclear option to terminate the Microsoft-OpenAI relationship.

However, a federal decision in that direction would be in contrast to the UK’s decision favoring Microsoft. In March 2025, the UK’s Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) decided that Microsoft’s partnership with OpenAI “does not qualify for investigation under the merger provisions of the Enterprise Act 2002.”

If this is the likely outcome of an antitrust investigation in the US as well, it may be the case that OpenAI is seeking to revise the terms of the agreement with Microsoft. Specifically, for Microsoft to allow OpenAI to transition into a public benefit corporation from its existing nonprofit status.

The Information previously reported that OpenAI is willing to give Microsoft a 33% stake in this new restructured entity, while foregoing rights to future profits. Additionally, Microsoft would no longer hold exclusive rights to OpenAI’s models on Azure.OpenAI’s evolving relationships with Microsoft and other companies suggest a growing drive for diversification and independence.

Evolving Entanglement: Microsoft, OpenAI, and Oracle

After OpenAI’s ChatGPT pushed the AI into the public spotlight, Microsoft was the first Big Tech company to go all in. But even before the AI hype ramped up, Microsoft invested $1 billion in OpenAI in 2019, followed by another round of funding in March 2021, and the largest commitment of $10 billion in January 2023.

In September 2024, Microsoft disclosed that total OpenAI investments accounted for $13 billion, with Microsoft getting 20% of OpenAI’s revenue. The arrangement has been mutually beneficial, as Microsoft offered ready-to-go Azure cloud infrastructure and seamless AI integration into a wide range of legacy software.

In November 2023, Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella noted that if OpenAI were to disappear, Microsoft would own all of the organization’s resources.

However, the exclusivity slowly started to shift out of Microsoft’s favor. This first became apparent in June 2024 when OpenAI inked a deal with Oracle for its Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI), while continuing the partnership with Microsoft.

In January 2025, the strategic relationship between Microsoft and OpenAI officially changed from the existing exclusive access to OpenAI’s IP through 2030. Under that arrangement, OpenAI API (application programming interface) is exclusive to Azure, as OpenAI rolls out its latest models.

Further, Microsoft’s cloud infrastructure would support all OpenAI products, including LLM training. By introducing the right of first refusal (ROFR), Microsoft enabled OpenAI to “build additional capacity, primarily for research and training of models.”

The January 2025 agreement opened the door for OpenAI’s compute capacity outside Microsoft. This expansion is likely within Oracle. Shortly after President Trump was inaugurated, Larry Ellison presented the Stargate Project at the White House, together with OpenAI CEO Sam Altman and SoftBank CEO Masayoshi Son.

From the entanglement with Oracle, Microsoft’s cloud infrastructure competitor, it was clear back then that OpenAI is not likely to settle for being under Microsoft’s umbrella and its Copilot AI suite. As recently as this month, OpenAI also made a deal with Alphabet’s Google Cloud Platform, although it directly competes with Google’s Gemini model.

At the same time, Microsoft is diversifying its AI stake as well.

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Microsoft’s Road Ahead without OpenAI

While OpenAI sent a strong signal through WSJ that the relationship with Microsoft needs to change, Microsoft was not taken aback. In late May, the Big Tech giant opened up its Azure cloud infrastructure for Elon Musk’s xAI which is developing Grok models.

Microsoft further emphasized that it supports “an open, diverse AI ecosystem, rather than relying on a single model provider.” This is a clear play on the company’s strength to serve as an agnostic cloud provider.

Ending April for fiscal Q3 2025, Microsoft reported 21% year-over-year growth of its Intelligent Cloud division to $26.8 billion. Of the Big Three hyperscalers – Amazon (AWS), Microsoft (Azure), Alphabet (GCP) – Microsoft holds 22% global cloud market share. This is significantly above Google’s 12% and Oracle’s 3% but under Amazon’s 29% share as the dominant cloud provider.

In addition to Grok, in the new landscape of AI agents, Microsoft is also expanding Azure’s AI Foundry to Anthropic. Interestingly, both Google and Amazon poured billions into Anthropic, showing that Microsoft is willing to collaborate even with AI companies backed by its biggest cloud rivals in order to strengthen Azure’s position in the broader AI infrastructure race.

On top of this diversification, Microsoft has plenty of resources and human capital to launch its own model. Namely, the small language model (SML) Phi-4 with its 14 billion parameter range. In late 2024, Phi-4 gained top math scores against its LLM rivals.

Ultimately, Microsoft could end up integrating different AI models based on their most performant niches. But for end users, only robust results would matter, not the name of the AI model under the hood.

Disclaimer: The author does not hold or have a position in any securities discussed in the article. All stock prices were quoted at the time of writing.

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Neither the author, Tim Fries, nor this website, The Tokenist, provide financial advice. Please consult our  website policy prior to making financial decisions.

The U.S. Senate made cryptocurrency history on Tuesday, passing the GENIUS Act by a decisive 68-30 vote, marking the first comprehensive federal regulatory framework for stablecoins.

The landmark legislation triggered significant market reactions, with Coinbase Global (NASDAQ: COIN) surging 10.57% to $280.67 and Circle Internet Group (NASDAQ: CRCL) experiencing an extraordinary 18.08% jump to $176.12.

This legislative victory represents a milestone for the crypto industry, which invested approximately $250 million in the 2024 election cycle to secure what is now considered the most pro-crypto Congress in U.S. history. The passage signals a potential paradigm shift in digital payments and creates new opportunities for major financial institutions, fintech companies, and even traditional retailers to enter the stablecoin market.

The GENIUS Act: A Regulatory Breakthrough for Stablecoins

The GENIUS Act, formally known as the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins Act, establishes comprehensive federal guardrails for dollar-pegged stablecoins, including requirements for full reserve backing, monthly audits, and anti-money laundering compliance.

Stablecoins are cryptocurrencies pegged to real-world assets, with approximately 99% of all stablecoins tethered to the U.S. dollar, offering instant settlement and lower transaction fees while directly challenging traditional payment systems. The legislation grants sweeping authority to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who recently projected that the U.S. stablecoin market could grow nearly eightfold to over $2 trillion in the coming years.

The bill opens doors to a broader range of stablecoin issuers, including banks, fintech companies, and major retailers looking to launch their own digital currencies or integrate them into existing payment systems.

However, the GENIUS Act includes restrictions preventing non-financial large tech companies from directly issuing stablecoins unless they establish partnerships with regulated financial entities, a provision designed to address monopoly concerns. Deutsche Bank research indicates that stablecoin transactions reached $28 trillion last year, surpassing the combined transaction volume of Mastercard and Visa, highlighting the growing significance of this digital payment method.

The legislation faced significant political hurdles, initially bleeding Democratic support when an Abu Dhabi-backed firm announced plans to use $2 billion in stablecoin from Trump-linked World Liberty Financial to invest in crypto exchange Binance.

Despite criticism from Democrats including Senator Elizabeth Warren, who argued the bill inadequately addresses conflict-of-interest concerns related to President Trump’s cryptocurrency ventures, 18 Democrats ultimately supported the measure.

Senator Cynthia Lummis noted the unexpected difficulty of the legislative process, stating “I had no idea how hard this was going to be,” while Senator Bill Hagerty described it as “murder to get them there” regarding Democratic support.

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Market Response: Crypto Stocks Capitalize on Legislative Victory

Coinbase Global (COIN) closed at $280.67, representing a substantial 10.57% gain, with the stock showing strong momentum following the Senate vote. The cryptocurrency exchange, with a market capitalization of $71.475 billion, has demonstrated impressive year-to-date returns of 13.02% and one-year returns of 18.93%. Coinbase’s strong financial metrics include a profit margin of 22.03% and revenue of $6.67 billion over the trailing twelve months, positioning the company well to benefit from increased regulatory clarity and mainstream stablecoin adoption.

Circle Internet Group (CRCL) experienced an even more dramatic surge, jumping 18.08% to $176.12, reflecting investor enthusiasm for the stablecoin issuer’s prospects under the new regulatory framework. Circle’s market capitalization reached $42.756 billion, with the company showing remarkable year-to-date returns of 468.68%, significantly outperforming the S&P 500’s 2.14% gain over the same period. As a leading stablecoin company with revenue of $1.89 billion and a profit margin of 9.09%, Circle stands to benefit directly from the GENIUS Act’s creation of a regulated pathway for stablecoin issuance and the potential influx of new market participants.

The market enthusiasm reflects broader industry trends, with companies like Shopify already implementing USDC-powered payments through Coinbase and Stripe, while Bank of America’s CEO recently indicated the bank is exploring stablecoin issuance opportunities.

Industry giants including Amazon and Walmart are reportedly developing stablecoin-style payment offerings, suggesting that traditional payment networks may need to adapt to this evolving digital landscape.

JPMorgan Chase has taken a different approach, launching JPMD, a deposit token on Coinbase’s Base blockchain for institutional clients, demonstrating how traditional financial institutions are positioning themselves in the emerging stablecoin ecosystem.

Disclaimer: The author does not hold or have a position in any securities discussed in the article. All stock prices were quoted at the time of writing.

The post Coinbase and Circle Shares Surge as Senate Passes Stablecoin Bill in Rare Crypto Win appeared first on Tokenist.

Neither the author, Tim Fries, nor this website, The Tokenist, provide financial advice. Please consult our  website policy prior to making financial decisions.

Jabil Inc. (NYSE: JBL) has emerged as a standout performer in the electronics manufacturing sector, with shares surging nearly 9% in a single trading session following exceptional third-quarter 2025 results.

The contract electronics manufacturer has delivered impressive returns, posting a remarkable 42.48% year-to-date gain and an outstanding 62.65% one-year return, significantly outpacing the S&P 500’s modest 2.11% and 9.46% respective gains.

Trading at $204.83 with a market capitalization of $21.987 billion, Jabil has positioned itself as a critical beneficiary of the artificial intelligence revolution and cloud computing expansion.

Factor 1: AI and Data Center Infrastructure Boom Drives Revenue Growth

The most significant catalyst behind Jabil’s recent stock surge is the company’s strategic positioning in the artificial intelligence and data center infrastructure markets. Third-quarter fiscal 2025 revenue jumped an impressive 16% year-over-year to $7.83 billion, substantially beating analyst estimates of $7.06 billion.

This robust growth stems directly from what CEO Mike Dastoor described as “accelerating AI-driven demand” in the company’s intelligent infrastructure segment.

The proliferation of AI technology across industries has created unprecedented demand for data centers capable of supporting vast computing requirements and complex AI workloads.

Companies rushing to implement AI solutions in their operations have dramatically increased their need for sophisticated data center infrastructure, positioning Jabil perfectly to capitalize on this trend. The manufacturer’s expertise in automation, robotics, and process optimization has made it an essential partner for organizations building AI-capable computing infrastructure.

This positioning as a critical supplier in the AI ecosystem has transformed Jabil from a traditional electronics manufacturer into a key enabler of the artificial intelligence revolution, driving both revenue growth and investor confidence.

The company’s intelligent infrastructure segment has become what management calls “a critical growth engine,” with demand showing no signs of slowing.

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Factor 2: Strategic $500 Million U.S. Manufacturing Expansion

Jabil’s announcement of a substantial $500 million investment in U.S. manufacturing expansion represents the second major factor propelling the stock higher.

This strategic initiative, focused on the Southeastern United States, specifically targets cloud and AI data center infrastructure customers over the next several years. The investment will drive development of new large-scale manufacturing capabilities, capital expenditures, and workforce development initiatives, with the new facility expected to be operational by mid-2026.

This expansion demonstrates management’s confidence in sustained demand growth and positions the company to capture an even larger share of the expanding AI infrastructure market.

The timing of this investment aligns perfectly with broader trends toward reshoring manufacturing capabilities and reducing supply chain vulnerabilities. By expanding its U.S. footprint, Jabil strengthens its competitive position with domestic customers while reducing geopolitical risks associated with overseas manufacturing.

The company already operates 30 facilities across the United States, leveraging established strengths in automation and process optimization, making this expansion a natural evolution of its existing capabilities rather than a risky venture into uncharted territory.

This strategic expansion also complements Jabil’s recent acquisition of Mikros Technologies, a New Hampshire-based leader in liquid cooling and thermal management solutions.

The acquisition enhances Jabil’s capabilities in serving AI data centers, energy storage systems, and semiconductor testing markets. Together, these initiatives create a comprehensive strategy for capturing growth in high-value, high-margin segments of the electronics manufacturing market, providing investors with confidence in the company’s long-term growth trajectory.

Factor 3: Exceptional Financial Performance and Raised Guidance

The third driving factor behind Jabil’s stock surge is the company’s exceptional financial execution and optimistic forward guidance. Third-quarter adjusted earnings per share of $2.55 significantly exceeded analyst expectations of $2.31, representing a robust 21% increase in core net income to $279 million. This strong bottom-line performance demonstrates management’s ability to convert revenue growth into profitable results, a critical factor for sustained stock appreciation. The company’s profit margin of 2.02% and impressive return on equity of 32.39% highlight efficient capital allocation and operational excellence.

Management’s raised full-year guidance provides additional fuel for investor optimism. The company now expects fiscal 2025 revenue of $29 billion, up from the previous forecast of $27.9 billion, while raising adjusted profit per share guidance to $9.33 from $8.95.

This upward revision reflects management’s confidence in sustained demand across key markets and their ability to execute on growth opportunities. The guidance increase, combined with the strong third-quarter results, validates the investment thesis that Jabil is successfully capitalizing on structural shifts in technology infrastructure.

The company’s financial strength is further evidenced by its healthy balance sheet, featuring $1.52 billion in total cash and strong free cash flow generation of $1.41 billion.

This financial flexibility provides the resources necessary to fund the ambitious expansion plans while maintaining operational stability. With analyst price targets ranging from $155 to $230 and an average target of $205.26 closely aligned with current trading levels, the market appears to be efficiently pricing in the company’s improved fundamentals and growth prospects.

Disclaimer: The author does not hold or have a position in any securities discussed in the article. All stock prices were quoted at the time of writing.

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Neither the author, Tim Fries, nor this website, The Tokenist, provide financial advice. Please consult our  website policy prior to making financial decisions.

In all sectors, it is exceedingly important to have a force multiplier to get ahead of the competition or to maintain hegemony. This is why there has been a concerted push for AI through public-private partnerships (PPPs), from Larry Ellison’s $500-billion Stargate Project to the $600-billion commitment in Saudi Arabia.

And this is why Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent noted that the U.S. has to “win in AI and quantum” or “everything else doesn’t matter” at the Milken Institute in early May. For warfare purposes, AI is suitable for a wide range of roles: coordination between autonomous vehicles, missile guidance and tracking, image and video analysis, intercepting and interpreting signals, running wargame simulations, monitoring social media, supply chain optimization, threat detection, automated defence and target acquisition.

But governments can only maintain and expand their power through public-private partnerships, as companies deliver the needed expertise and resources. These companies are rapidly emerging as the top players in the AI-warfare arena.

Oracle Corporation (NYSE: ORCL)

The aforementioned Larry Ellison built up Oracle since the late 1970s into a global Software-as-a-Service (SaaS), Infrastructure-as-a-Service (IaaS), and Platform-as-a-Service (PaaS) company, with Ellison serving as CTO and executive chairman.

The company’s revenue largely comes from subscription fees for these cloud services, alongside software license updates, consulting and hardware sales. By offering integrated solutions for data analytics and cloud management needs, Oracle services both mid-sized businesses and large multinationals.

However, the overarching drive for Oracle lies in technology-driven governance. This has been demonstrated in Ellison’s major contributions to Tony Blair Institute for Global Change (TBI), the world’s largest and most influential NGO with strong focus on harmonized digital records, and AI to leverage the insight from those records.

Larry Ellison himself noted that AI-powered governance is key to having citizens on their “best behavior”. In addition to the Stargate Project, as the necessary data center infrastructure in collaboration with OpenAI and SoftBank, the company recently announced the Oracle Defense Ecosystem initiative.

This should be understood as another stack in building up future AI-powered governance through Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI), which is already in wide use by defense and government contractors. In partnership with Metron, Oracle can then serve as the primary layer to take in other entities, under controlled conditions, and give them OODA (observe, orient, decide, and act) tools.

Of course, this layer has great potential for compounding profits, similar to Palantir’s positioning to provide hegemony technology.

Year-to-date, ORCL stock is up 27%, with the company’s IaaS revenue up 52% to $3 billion in the latest earnings report for fiscal Q4 2025. In the earnings call, Ellison boldly stated that Oracle will become the “most profitable cloud applications company in the world”, given that it will “build more cloud infrastructure data centers than all of our infrastructure competitors combined.”

Presently priced at $211, the average ORCL price target is in line, at $211.45 per share according to WSJ forecasting. The bottom outlook is $170, while the ceiling price target for ORCL stock is $246 per share.

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Palantir Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ: PLTR)

As one of our most covered companies, we’ve maintained that Palantir’s AI stack resembles Microsoft’s path to dominance with its Windows operating system. Serving both governments and corporations, Palantir automates away redundant bureaucracy but also provides “actionable insight” with granular AI-powered workflow.

In close relationship with Elon Musk’s DOGE (Department of Government Efficiency) to streamline governance processes, and after getting selected by President Trump to harmonize digital records on citizens, it is now even more likely that Palantir will become the Microsoft of governance systems.

Expectedly, Palantir is also in a strategic relationship with Ellison’s Oracle, leveraging Oracle’s robust cloud infrastructure and existing inroads with government contractors.

In short, as governments and corporations become more complex, the need for their effective and more responsive control will become greater. Although both China and the U.S. already have state-run capitalism, China is more effective by not having democratic layers.

By implementing networked, AI-based layers, this should give the U.S. the necessary edge to compete, putting Oracle and Palantir at the center of this transformation.

Year-to-date, PLTR stock is up 86%, presently priced at $141.41 per share. Although the news-driven bullish trajectory elevated Palantir’s valuation, this is likely to subside. The average PLTR price target is now $107, with the bottom forecast of $40 and the ceiling price target of $160 per share.

Archer Aviation Inc. (NYSE: ACHR)

Continuing with the theme of interconnectedness, both Oracle and Palantir partnered with Anduril Industries, the rising star in the military industrial complex focused on AI-powered autonomous vehicles and ordnance systems.

The head of Anduril is Palmer Luckey, the original founder of Oculus VR which was sold to Facebook in 2014 for $2 billion. Most recently after securing another $2.5 billion funding round, to a total of $6.26 billion, Luckey announced plans for a $900 million manufacturing facility Arsenal-1 in Ohio.

Although Anduril is not a publicly traded company, Archer Aviation will contribute in deploying a new generation of weaponry through its defense division. On its own, Archer is the primary candidate for commercialized eVTOL deployment, as we extensively covered on Monday, including the stock’s prospects.

Disclaimer: The author does not hold or have a position in any securities discussed in the article. All stock prices were quoted at the time of writing.

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Neither the author, Tim Fries, nor this website, The Tokenist, provide financial advice. Please consult our  website policy prior to making financial decisions.

Aptevo Therapeutics (NASDAQ: APVO) shares exploded in premarket trading, surging an incredible 123.4% to $6.30 after closing at just $2.82 the previous day. The dramatic spike comes after the biotechnology company released breakthrough clinical trial data for its lead cancer treatment, mipletamig, showing remarkable results in treating acute myeloid leukemia (AML).

The premarket surge at 8:51 AM EDT reflects investor excitement over what could be a game-changing therapy for cancer patients who can’t handle intensive chemotherapy.

Aptevo’s Mipletamig Breakthrough: 85% Remission Rate Changes the Game

The catalyst behind today’s massive stock surge is Aptevo’s announcement of compelling clinical data from its Phase 1b/2 RAINIER trial. Their experimental drug mipletamig, a CD123 x CD3 bispecific antibody, achieved an impressive 85% remission rate when combined with existing drugs venetoclax and azacitidine for treating frontline AML patients. This performance significantly outpaces competitor studies and current standard treatments, marking a potential breakthrough for patients who can’t tolerate intensive chemotherapy.

What makes these results even more exciting is the safety profile. Unlike many cancer immunotherapies that cause dangerous side effects, mipletamig showed no cytokine release syndrome (CRS) in the first two patient groups tested.

This suggests the company’s engineered CRIS-7 binding technology successfully reduces toxicity while maintaining powerful anti-cancer effects. Three patients with poor prognosis even achieved complete remission, with one successfully proceeding to a life-saving transplant.

The trial’s momentum continues building as Cohort 3 approaches full enrollment at the highest dose level tested so far.

For a small biotech company with a market cap of just $1.9 million, these results represent a potential paradigm shift that could redefine treatment standards for elderly or unfit AML patients who historically have limited options.

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APVO Stock Brief: From $2.82 to $6.30 in Today’s Premarket Action

The premarket explosion shows quickly biotech stocks can move on promising clinical data. APVO closed yesterday at $2.82, down 22.95% from the previous session, before rocketing 123.4% higher to $6.30 in premarket trading at 8:51 AM EDT. This represents a gain of $3.48 per share, nearly doubling investors’ money overnight on the breakthrough news.

The stock’s recent performance has been challenging, with year-to-date returns showing a brutal 96.73% decline compared to the S&P 500’s positive 1.72% gain. The company’s 52-week range spans from $2.81 to an eye-watering $485.44, highlighting the extreme volatility typical of clinical-stage biotechnology stocks. With an average daily volume of 283,959 shares, today’s surge likely represents significantly higher than normal trading activity.

Key financial metrics paint the picture of a typical cash-burning biotech in development mode. The company shows negative earnings per share of -$325.05, no revenue, and a return on equity of -1,023.93%.

However, with $2.14 million in total cash and analyst price targets averaging $420 per share, the mipletamig breakthrough could be the catalyst needed to transform Aptevo from a struggling penny stock into a legitimate cancer treatment contender.

Disclaimer: The author does not hold or have a position in any securities discussed in the article. All stock prices were quoted at the time of writing.

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Neither the author, Tim Fries, nor this website, The Tokenist, provide financial advice. Please consult our  website policy prior to making financial decisions.

GMS Inc. (NYSE: GMS), a leading distributor of specialty building products in North America, has released its financial results for the fourth quarter and fiscal year ending April 30, 2025. Despite facing challenging market conditions, the company has demonstrated strong pricing strategies and cost management. This article delves into the company’s quarterly performance and future guidance, providing insights for stakeholders and investors.

GMS Inc. Reports Net Sales of $1.33 Billion in Q4, Down 5.6%

In the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025, GMS Inc. reported net sales of $1.33 billion, a 5.6% decrease compared to the same period in the previous year. This figure, however, exceeded the market expectation of $1.29 billion.

The decline in sales was primarily attributed to softer market conditions, although this was partially offset by strategic pricing in key product categories such as Wallboard, Ceilings, and Complementary Products. Notably, steel framing experienced a significant drop in sales due to deflation in steel prices, impacting overall revenue by an estimated $22 million.

Despite these challenges, GMS Inc. achieved an adjusted net income of $50.2 million, or $1.29 per diluted share, slightly above the expected EPS of $1.15. However, this represented a substantial decline from the $81.6 million, or $2.01 per diluted share, recorded in the same quarter of the previous year. The decrease in net income was largely due to lower sales volumes and reduced vendor incentive income, which affected gross profit margins, decreasing by 70 basis points to 31.2%.

Operating expenses for the quarter were $315.1 million, a slight decrease from the previous year, demonstrating effective cost management despite a $14 million increase in expenses related to recent acquisitions. The company has successfully implemented cost reduction strategies, contributing to a 130 basis point increase in SG&A expenses as a percentage of net sales, now at 23.6%.

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GMS Catuiously Optimistic on Fiscal 2026 Outlook

Looking ahead, GMS Inc. is cautiously optimistic about fiscal 2026, expecting market conditions to stabilize and demand to rebound. The company is focusing on strategic acquisitions and greenfield expansions to enhance its market presence and service offerings. Recently, GMS expanded its product offerings with the acquisition of the Lutz Company, a respected distributor in Minnesota, and established new locations in key markets such as Owens Sound, Ontario, and Nashville, Tennessee.

To support these growth initiatives, GMS has maintained a strong balance sheet with no near-term debt maturities. As of April 30, 2025, the company had $55.6 million in cash and $631.3 million in available liquidity under its revolving credit facility. The net debt leverage ratio increased to 2.4 times Pro Forma Adjusted EBITDA from 1.7 times a year ago, reflecting strategic investments and share repurchases.

As the company progresses into fiscal 2026, it aims to capitalize on pent-up demand and market improvements. With a leaner organizational structure and continued investments in technology and efficiency optimization, GMS is well-positioned to capture opportunities in the construction market. The company has committed to an additional estimated $25 million in annualized cost reductions, reinforcing its strategic priorities and enhancing shareholder value.

Disclaimer: The author does not hold or have a position in any securities discussed in the article. All stock prices were quoted at the time of writing.

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Verve Therapeutics (NASDAQ: VERV) shares are experiencing dramatic premarket gains, surging over 78% to $11.18 after closing at $6.27 on Monday. The biotech company’s stock is responding to reports that pharmaceutical giant Eli Lilly is in advanced negotiations to acquire the gene editing specialist for approximately $1.3 billion. The Financial Times broke the story late Monday, citing sources close to the matter, suggesting a deal could be announced as early as this week.

Eli Lilly’s Strategic Move: Why Verve Makes Sense

The rumored acquisition represents a natural progression of the existing partnership between Eli Lilly and Verve Therapeutics that began in mid-2023. Initially focused on advancing Verve’s in vivo gene editing program targeting lipoprotein(a) for treating atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, the collaboration expanded later that year when Lilly paid $200 million upfront to acquire rights to Verve’s PCSK9 and ANGPTL3 programs, plus an undisclosed third cardiovascular target.

According to the Financial Times report, Lilly will pay nearly $1 billion upfront with an additional $300 million tied to achieving certain milestones.

The timing appears strategic, coming just ahead of Lilly’s upcoming opt-in decision on Verve’s leading pipeline candidate, VERVE-102. BMO Capital Markets analysts noted that the transaction “makes sense” given the close ties between the companies and Lilly’s substantial investment in Verve’s technology. The deal would value Verve at approximately $14.50 per share, representing about double its Monday closing price, though analysts had previously set a higher target of $20 per share.

For Lilly, this acquisition continues an active year of business development following January’s agreement to buy Scorpion Therapeutics’ PI3Kα inhibitor program for up to $2.5 billion and the recent purchase of SiteOne Therapeutics for up to $1 billion to expand its pain portfolio. The Verve deal would strengthen Lilly’s position in the rapidly evolving gene editing space, particularly for cardiovascular applications.

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VERV Stock Performance Skyrockets in Premarket Amid Eli Lilly Deal Reports

VERV shares opened Tuesday’s premarket session at $6.25, quickly surging to $11.18, representing a remarkable 78.31% gain from Monday’s close of $6.27.

The stock had shown modest regular-hours performance on Monday, gaining just 1.79%, but the acquisition rumors have dramatically altered investor sentiment. Trading volume reached 2.2 million shares, significantly above the average volume of 3.49 million, indicating heightened institutional and retail interest.

The biotech stock has demonstrated strong year-to-date performance with an 11.17% gain, substantially outperforming the broader market’s 2.58% return. Over the past year, VERV has delivered 15.68% returns to shareholders, though the stock remains well below its historical highs with a 52-week range of $2.87 to $9.31. The company maintains a market capitalization of approximately $559 million based on Monday’s closing price.

Analyst sentiment appears increasingly bullish, with recent coverage suggesting significant upside potential. Wall Street analysts maintain an average price target of $24.33, indicating substantial room for growth even after the premarket surge.

The stock recently reclaimed its 200-day moving average, a technical indicator that many traders view as a positive momentum signal for continued price appreciation.

Disclaimer: The author does not hold or have a position in any securities discussed in the article. All stock prices were quoted at the time of writing.

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Jabil Inc. (NYSE: JBL) has reported its third quarter financial results for fiscal year 2025, showcasing a robust performance that exceeded market expectations. The company also provided optimistic guidance for the upcoming quarter and fiscal year.

Jabil Inc. Reports Better than Expected Results for Third-Quarter FY’25

In the third quarter of fiscal year 2025, Jabil Inc. reported net revenue of $7.828 billion, surpassing the expected $6.97 billion. The company’s U.S. GAAP diluted earnings per share (EPS) stood at $2.03, slightly below the anticipated $2.28. However, the core diluted EPS (Non-GAAP) was $2.55, exceeding expectations and highlighting the company’s underlying strength.

CEO Mike Dastoor emphasized the company’s performance in sectors like cloud and data center infrastructure, which have been pivotal in driving growth. Despite challenges in areas such as electric vehicles and renewables, Jabil’s diversified portfolio has enabled it to maintain strong core earnings. The Intelligent Infrastructure segment, benefiting from rising AI-driven demand, remains a critical growth engine for the company.

Comparatively, Jabil’s performance in the third quarter of the previous year showcased a net revenue of $6.765 billion, with a U.S. GAAP diluted EPS of $1.06. This year’s results reflect significant growth and operational efficiency, positioning the company well against market expectations and its historical performance.

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Jabil Raises Fiscal 2025 Outlook, Projects Net Revenue Between $7.1-$7.8 Billion

Looking ahead, Jabil has raised its fiscal year 2025 outlook, projecting net revenue between $7.1 billion and $7.8 billion for the fourth quarter. The company anticipates U.S. GAAP operating income to range from $331 million to $411 million, with a core operating income (Non-GAAP) expected between $428 million and $488 million. The guidance for core diluted EPS (Non-GAAP) is set between $2.64 and $3.04, reflecting optimism in sustaining strong performance.

For the full fiscal year, Jabil forecasts net revenue of $29 billion, with a core operating margin (Non-GAAP) of 5.4%. The company also expects core diluted EPS (Non-GAAP) to reach $9.33, supported by adjusted free cash flow exceeding $1.2 billion. This guidance underscores Jabil’s focus on enhancing core margins, optimizing cash flow, and delivering shareholder value through share repurchases and strategic investments in higher-margin opportunities.

Jabil’s forward-looking statements are based on current expectations and forecasts, considering potential risks and uncertainties. The company remains committed to navigating challenges such as customer demand fluctuations, supply chain dependencies, and geopolitical factors, ensuring continued operational excellence and financial stability.

Disclaimer: The author does not hold or have a position in any securities discussed in the article. All stock prices were quoted at the time of writing.

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Kirkland’s, Inc. (NASDAQ: KIRK) has announced its financial results for the first quarter of fiscal 2025, highlighting a period marked by challenges and strategic shifts. The company is undergoing a significant transformation, including a corporate reorganization and changes to its board of directors, as it navigates a difficult retail environment.

Kirkland Reports Decline in Net Sales in Q1 FY’25

In the first quarter of fiscal 2025, Kirkland’s, Inc. experienced a decline in net sales, reporting $81.5 million compared to $91.8 million in the same period last year. This figure fell short of the anticipated revenue of $91.59 million. The decrease was attributed to a drop in both e-commerce and comparable store sales, compounded by a reduction in store count by approximately 5%. Comparable sales saw an 8.9% decline, with e-commerce sales plummeting by 26.7%. The company also reported a gross profit margin of 24.9%, down from 29.5% in the previous year, primarily due to increased promotional activities and higher store occupancy costs.

Despite these challenges, Kirkland’s CEO Amy Sullivan noted some positive trends, particularly in the performance of Kirkland’s Home stores, which saw a 3% increase in comparable store sales in May compared to the previous year. However, the overall operating loss for the quarter was $10.5 million, a significant increase from the $7.5 million loss reported in the prior year. The adjusted EBITDA loss was $7.9 million, compared to a loss of $4.5 million in the previous year.

The company also reported a net loss of $11.8 million, or $0.54 per diluted share, which was slightly better than the expected EPS loss of $0.5 but still a deterioration from the $8.8 million loss, or $0.68 per diluted share, in the prior year. The diluted weighted average shares outstanding increased to 22.1 million, largely due to Beyond, Inc.’s acquisition of additional shares. This increased share count impacted the EPS comparison to last year.

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Kirkland Focused on Transformation Strategy to Realign Business

Looking ahead, Kirkland’s, Inc. is focusing on a comprehensive transformation strategy to realign its business for improved performance and profitability. The company has announced plans to rebrand as The Brand House Collective, reflecting its evolution into a multi-brand retail operator. This change is pending shareholder approval and is part of a broader effort to strengthen its partnership with Beyond, Inc. and to optimize its asset portfolio.

CEO Amy Sullivan emphasized the importance of these strategic initiatives, which include enhancing inventory productivity, accelerating brand conversion, and closing underperforming assets. While these actions are expected to impact near-term performance, the company believes they will create significant long-term value for shareholders. The recent expansion of the credit agreement with Beyond and the amended collaboration agreements are part of the financial strategy to support these transformation efforts.

The company is also addressing operational disruptions, such as the tornado damage to its Jackson, Tennessee distribution center, which affected its e-commerce operations. Kirkland’s is working with insurance carriers to assess the financial impact and recovery options.

As the company navigates these challenges, it remains committed to leveraging its strategic partnerships and reimagining its future as a leader in the home and family brand space.

Disclaimer: The author does not hold or have a position in any securities discussed in the article. All stock prices were quoted at the time of writing.

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Solar stocks experienced a dramatic selloff on Tuesday, June 17, 2025, as the U.S. Senate’s version of President Donald Trump’s tax bill maintained provisions to fully phase out renewable energy incentives by 2028.

Major solar companies saw double-digit losses in premarket trading, with some stocks plummeting over 27% as investors fled the sector.

The Senate bill specifically targets solar and wind power tax incentives while preserving support for nuclear, hydropower, and geothermal energy sources, marking a significant shift in federal energy policy that threatens the renewable energy sector’s growth trajectory.

Trump’s Tax Bill Devastates Solar Stocks

The Senate version of Trump’s tax bill includes a provision that would completely eliminate both solar and wind power tax incentives by 2028, dealing a crushing blow to the renewable energy sector.

Unlike previous versions, this legislation maintains support for nuclear, hydropower, and geothermal energy sources, creating a clear preference for traditional and alternative energy technologies over solar and wind.

The renewable energy incentives were cornerstone policies of former President Joe Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act, and their removal represents a fundamental reversal of federal clean energy support.

Senate Republicans are pushing aggressively to pass the legislation before the Fourth of July holiday, with the bill also raising the federal debt limit from $4 trillion to $5 trillion. The elimination of these tax credits could severely impact project financing and development timelines across the solar industry.

The legislation’s implications extend beyond solar to other clean energy sectors, particularly electric vehicles, which are also facing policy headwinds.

Senate Republicans have separately proposed ending the $7,500 tax credit for new electric vehicle sales within 180 days of the measure becoming law, and immediately terminating credits for leased EVs manufactured outside North America.

This broader assault on clean energy incentives signals a comprehensive shift away from renewable technology support under the Trump administration.

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Panic Among Solar Stocks Following Shift in Policy Outlook

The market reaction to the Senate bill was swift and severe, with leading solar companies experiencing catastrophic losses during Tuesday’s trading session.

Enphase Energy (ENPH) led the decline, plummeting over 24% to $34.63 in premarket trading, while Sunrun (RUN) crashed more than 27% and SolarEdge Technologies (SEDG) dropped 22%. First Solar (FSLR) fell approximately 12%, demonstrating that even the largest players in the sector were not immune to the selloff.

The broader solar sector performance data reveals the magnitude of the industry’s struggles throughout 2025. Year-to-date returns show the solar industry down 13.99% compared to the S&P 500’s positive 1.95% gain, highlighting the sector’s underperformance even before this latest policy shock.

The one-year returns paint an even more dire picture, with the solar industry declining 44.91% while the broader market gained 10.87%, indicating sustained pressure on renewable energy investments.

Individual company performance data underscores the sector’s vulnerability to policy changes. Among the largest solar companies, First Solar trades at $145.52 with a market cap of $15.579 billion but shows negative returns across multiple timeframes, including a -17.43% year-to-date decline. Enphase Energy, despite its recent 24% drop, still maintains a significant market presence but faces analyst downgrades and earnings disappointments that compound the policy-related headwinds facing the entire renewable energy sector.

Disclaimer: The author does not hold or have a position in any securities discussed in the article. All stock prices were quoted at the time of writing.

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JetBlue Airways Corporation (NASDAQ: JBLU) faces mounting financial pressures as the airline announces significant cost-cutting measures, including flight reductions and aircraft parking, in response to weakening travel demand.

The carrier’s stock has plummeted over 42% year-to-date, with shares declining an additional 3.61% to $4.4050 in recent trading as investors react to internal memos revealing the company’s struggles to achieve profitability.

CEO Joanna Geraghty acknowledged that reaching breakeven operating margin in 2025 now appears “unlikely,” marking a significant departure from the airline’s earlier optimistic projections and highlighting the broader challenges facing the aviation industry.

JetBlue Implements Aggressive Cost-Cutting Strategy

JetBlue Airways is implementing sweeping cost-reduction measures as deteriorating market conditions force the airline to reassess its operational strategy and financial outlook.

According to an internal memo from CEO Joanna Geraghty, the company will reduce flight schedules, park aircraft, and wind down underperforming routes while concentrating resources on profitable operations. The airline is also reassessing the size and scope of its leadership team as part of broader organizational restructuring efforts aimed at preserving cash flow during challenging market conditions.

The New York-based carrier has been particularly impacted by ongoing inspections of RTX’s Pratt & Whitney Geared Turbofan engines, which have grounded portions of its fleet and increased operational complexity.

Additionally, the airline faces pressure from broader economic uncertainty stemming from trade policies and tariffs that have made consumers more cautious about discretionary travel spending. These operational challenges compound the industry-wide demand weakness that has forced major U.S. airlines to scale back capacity ahead of the traditionally busy summer travel season.

JetBlue’s struggles reflect broader industry headwinds, but the company’s situation appears particularly acute given its previous optimistic projections for 2025 profitability.

The carrier had withdrawn its 2025 forecast in April, citing weakening demand, and has already announced plans to defer deliveries of 44 new Airbus jets, reducing planned capital expenditures by approximately $3 billion through 2029. The company will also pause retrofitting six Airbus aircraft and park them instead, representing a significant scaling back of expansion plans.

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JBLU Stock Performance Reflects Aviation Market Pessimism

JetBlue’s stock performance has deteriorated significantly throughout 2025, with shares declining 3.61% to $4.4050 as of 11:49 AM EDT on June 17, representing a continuation of the stock’s sharp downward trajectory.

The stock has lost more than 42% of its value year-to-date, reflecting investor concerns about the airline’s ability to return to profitability amid challenging operating conditions. With a 52-week range of $3.3400 to $8.3100, the current price sits near the lower end of this range, indicating sustained bearish sentiment among market participants.

Trading volume of 12,168,019 shares significantly exceeded the average volume of 28,047,215, suggesting heightened investor interest and concern following the release of internal communications about cost-cutting measures.

The stock’s market capitalization has contracted to $1.561 billion, while the company’s negative earnings per share of -$0.78 underscores the financial challenges facing the airline. The absence of dividend payments reflects the company’s focus on cash preservation rather than shareholder returns during this difficult period.

Key financial metrics paint a concerning picture for investors, with the stock trading without a meaningful price-to-earnings ratio due to negative earnings and a 1-year target estimate of $4.21 suggesting limited upside potential in the near term.

The company’s beta of 1.83 indicates higher volatility relative to the broader market, making the stock particularly sensitive to industry-wide developments and broader economic conditions. With earnings expected between July 28 and August 1, 2025, investors will be closely watching for additional guidance on the company’s restructuring efforts and path back to profitability.

Disclaimer: The author does not hold or have a position in any securities discussed in the article. All stock prices were quoted at the time of writing.

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Eli Lilly and Company (NYSE: LLY) announced its financial results for the fourth quarter of 2024, showcasing robust growth in both revenue and net income. The company’s revenue for Q4 2024 reached $13.53 billion, marking a significant 45% increase compared to the same period in 2023. This growth was primarily driven by a 48% rise in volume, with Mounjaro and Zepbound being key contributors. However, this was slightly offset by a 4% decline due to lower realized prices. The non-incretin revenue also experienced a 20% growth over the previous year, highlighting the company’s diverse product portfolio. In terms of profitability, Eli Lilly reported a remarkable 102% increase in earnings per share (EPS) on a reported basis, reaching $4.88. On a non-GAAP basis, EPS surged by 114% to $5.32. This impressive performance included $0.19 of acquired in-process research and development charges. The company’s gross margin for the quarter expanded by 47% to $11.13 billion, with a gross margin percentage of 82.2%, reflecting a favorable product mix despite the pressure from lower prices. The company’s research and development expenses rose by 18% to $3.02 billion, accounting for 22.3% of the revenue. This increase was driven by continued investments in its early and late-stage portfolio. Additionally, marketing, selling, and administrative expenses saw a 26% rise to $2.42 billion, primarily due to promotional efforts for ongoing and future product launches. These investments underscore Eli Lilly’s commitment to maintaining its growth trajectory through innovation and market expansion.

Eli Lilly Reports 45% y/y Revenue Growth, Driven by Key Products

When comparing Eli Lilly’s Q4 2024 performance against market expectations, the results present a mixed picture. The company’s revenue of $13.53 billion fell short of the anticipated $13.78 billion. Despite this, the revenue growth of 45% year-over-year remains a testament to the strong demand for its key products, such as Mounjaro and Zepbound, which continue to drive volume increases.On the earnings front, Eli Lilly exceeded expectations. The non-GAAP EPS of $5.32 surpassed the expected EPS of $5.3, highlighting the company’s ability to manage costs effectively and optimize its product mix. This performance indicates that while revenue targets were not fully met, the company was able to leverage its operational efficiencies to deliver higher-than-expected earnings per share.Notable developments during the quarter included the U.S. FDA approval of Zepbound for a new indication and the approval of Omvoh for Crohn’s disease. These advancements not only bolster Eli Lilly’s product pipeline but also support its long-term growth strategy.

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Eli Lilly Expects Revenue in the $58 Billion to $61 Billion Range for 2025

Looking ahead to 2025, Eli Lilly has provided optimistic guidance, projecting revenue in the range of $58.0 billion to $61.0 billion. This represents a potential growth of approximately 32% compared to 2024, driven by the continued success of recently launched products such as Zepbound and Mounjaro, as well as potential new product launches. The company also expects to expand its manufacturing capacity significantly, aiming to produce at least 1.6 times the amount of salable incretin doses in the first half of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024.Eli Lilly has set its EPS guidance for 2025 between $22.05 and $23.55 on a reported basis and $22.50 to $24.00 on a non-GAAP basis. This range reflects the company’s confidence in its ability to sustain earnings growth through strategic investments and operational improvements. The anticipated effective tax rate for 2025 is approximately 16%, which aligns with the company’s financial planning and tax strategy.In terms of operational efficiency, Eli Lilly expects the ratio of (Gross Margin – OPEX) / Revenue to be between 40.5% and 42.5% on a reported basis, and 41.5% to 43.5% on a non-GAAP basis. This indicates a continued focus on optimizing operational costs while driving revenue growth. Additionally, other income (expense) is projected to be an expense in the range of $700 million to $600 million, primarily due to higher interest expenses.

Eli Lilly’s strategic outlook remains positive, with several initiatives underway to support future growth. The company is actively investing in expanding its manufacturing capacity, as evidenced by a $3 billion investment in its facility in Kenosha County, Wisconsin.

This expansion aims to enhance its global injectable product manufacturing network, ensuring the company can meet the growing demand for its products.The company’s commitment to innovation is further demonstrated by its ongoing clinical trials and regulatory submissions. Eli Lilly anticipates several important Phase 3 readouts in 2025, which, if positive, could accelerate its growth trajectory.

The acquisition of Scorpion Therapeutics’ mutant-selective PI3Kα inhibitor program also highlights Eli Lilly’s focus on strengthening its oncology portfolio.Moreover, Eli Lilly continues to prioritize shareholder value through a $15 billion share repurchase program and a 15% increase in its quarterly dividend for the seventh consecutive year.

Disclaimer: The author does not hold or have a position in any securities discussed in the article. All stock prices were quoted at the time of writing.

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Honeywell International Inc. (NASDAQ: HON) reported a solid performance for the fourth quarter of 2024, with sales reaching $10.1 billion, marking a 7% increase compared to the same period in the previous year. The company’s organic sales grew by 2%, excluding the impact of a significant agreement with Bombardier, which had a notable effect on the financials. This growth was particularly driven by strong performance in defense and space, as well as building solutions, which saw double-digit organic sales growth. Despite a challenging macroeconomic environment, Honeywell’s backlog grew 11% to a record $35.3 billion, showcasing the company’s ability to secure future business.

Honeywell Reports Double Beat for Fourth-Quarter 2024

Earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter were reported at $1.96, representing a 3% increase year over year. However, adjusted EPS showed a decline of 8% to $2.47, although this figure exceeded the previous guidance. The adjusted EPS would have increased by 9% if not for the $0.45 impact of the Bombardier agreement. Operating income saw a 10% rise, while the operating margin expanded by 50 basis points to 17.3%. Segment profit decreased by 8% to $2.1 billion, with the segment margin contracting by 350 basis points to 20.9%.

The company’s cash flow from operations stood at $2.3 billion, down 23% from the previous year, and free cash flow was reported at $1.9 billion, a 27% decrease. Despite these declines, the company’s overall performance in the fourth quarter was strong, with several business segments contributing positively to the results.

When comparing Honeywell’s performance to market expectations, the company exceeded the anticipated revenue of $9.97 billion, achieving $10.1 billion in sales for the fourth quarter. This represents a notable achievement, as Honeywell managed to surpass the expectations despite facing various economic challenges.

Regarding earnings per share, the anticipated EPS was $2.46, and Honeywell reported an adjusted EPS of $2.47, slightly surpassing expectations. While the adjusted EPS showed a decline compared to the previous year, it still managed to exceed the guidance provided earlier.

The company’s ability to exceed both revenue and EPS expectations demonstrates effective management and strategic execution. Honeywell’s leadership, under CEO Vimal Kapur, expressed confidence in the company’s revitalized portfolio optimization strategy and operational excellence, which are expected to drive further value creation for stakeholders.

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Honeywell Anticipates EPS in the Range of $10.10 to $10.50

Honeywell has issued guidance that reflects cautious optimism. The company expects sales to range between $39.6 billion and $40.6 billion, with organic sales growth projected at 2% to 5%. This indicates a steady outlook for growth, driven by continued strength in key business areas and strategic initiatives.

Honeywell anticipates an adjusted EPS for 2025 in the range of $10.10 to $10.50, representing an increase of 2% to 6%. The company also expects operating cash flow to be between $6.7 billion and $7.1 billion, with free cash flow projected at $5.4 billion to $5.8 billion.

The company’s guidance assumes a mid-year close of the sale of its Personal Protective Equipment business, which is expected to further streamline operations and enhance focus on core areas.

Disclaimer: The author does not hold or have a position in any securities discussed in the article. All stock prices were quoted at the time of writing.

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In a hyper consumerist culture like the US, branding is king. And the annual Super Bowl ad extravaganza serves as the platform to show which company has the best vibes on offer. In turn, these companies, showcasing their zeitgeist mastery, tend to receive stock price boosts.

One academic study from 2010 concluded that “two to four days before and after there is a significant positive stock price effect”. This stands to reason as companies that deploy well-conceived and received ads are more likely to increase their standing in the minds of consumers.

Some researchers, Tomkovick and Yelkur from the University of Wisconsin-Eau Claire, believe that Super Bowl ads are not the primary drivers for the stock boost effect, but as the latest and more visible carryovers of wider marketing campaigns.

Nonetheless, the existence of the effect is enough of a signal to pay attention. In particular, to these stocks that have seen prior Super Bowl boosts, as other companies move to The Sphere for more consistent gains.

Anheuser Busch Inbev NV (NYSE: BUD)

In early April 2023, this beer conglomerate picked transgender activist Dylan Mulvaney as the brand ambassador for Bud Light. The public reception was expectedly negative, followed by protracted backlash and boycott calls.

Nonetheless, the impact of this incident on BUD performance was short-lived, dropping from $65 range to $53 per share by June. At that time, the company launched Easy to Summer commercials, in stark thematic contrast to the controversial trans push. Although the stock has been more volatile, it recovered by January 2024. 

Anheuser’s shares reached a 52-week peak mid-May 2024 at $67.49, now priced at $48.82 per share. The recovery was expected given that Anheuser owns hundreds of beer brands and has a sophisticated supply chain implementing High Density Storage (HDS) and Automated Storage and Retrieval Systems (AS/RS).

Moreover, the Trump admin purged all DEI initiatives from the federal framework, alongside “restoring biological truth”, thus shifting culture away from the Mulvaney era. This alleviates pressure from companies to attempt similar marketing gambits and Anheuser Busch is likely to continue its redemption arc.

At previous Super Bowls, the beer company had well received ad launches, related to Game of Thrones series and Sex and the City. Both resulted in minor stock boosts.

Over a one year period, BUD stock is down 21.27%, presenting a buy the dip opportunity before another upward cycle. At the moment, the average BUD price target is $67.39 per share, according to WSJ’s forecasting data, suggesting a significant upside just at the right time.

Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT)

In 2020, Microsoft made an unusual We All Win Super Bowl ad featuring an adaptive controller for disabled children. This was a clever strategy, as Microsoft is too omnipresent to need branding. Rather, it relied on softening its image, which turned out effective with a few percentages worth of stock boost.

In 2024, Microsoft’s Super Bowl presence was AI-centered, featuring the company’s Copilot AI push. Just as MS Office and Windows OS are centerpieces of Microsoft’s dominance, Copilot aims to be the AI layer on top to automate tasks, as a more fine-tuned version of OpenAI’s large language model (LLM).

This year, Microsoft will not show up at the Super Bowl specifically, but the company is actively utilizing Las Vegas’ The Sphere.

Over the last five years, MSFT stock is up 124%, which is lower than the company’s revenue increase of 71.4% to $261.8 billion by the end of 2024. In the latest earnings ending December 31, 2024, Microsoft reported $69.6 billion revenue, an uptick of 12% from the year-ago quarter.

It appears that AI benefits are kicking in, as the new business tracked 175% yoy revenue growth to $13 billion. Therefore, investors should not only view Microsoft as a blue chip stock, legacy software stock, but also as an AI stock that is the most likely to bring AI to the masses.

Presently priced at $412.37, the average MSFT price target is $508.60 per WSJ forecasting data.

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Nike (NYSE: NKE)

The sporting goods company has a long history of high-profile marketing at Super Bowl. The Sphere is also to take that mantle this year. At the same time, Nike has been in trouble in recent years, especially following a particularly poor earrings call at the end of June 2024. 

Accordingly, NKE stock is down 24.6% over a one year period. Currently at $75.15, NKE shares are light years away from the all-time high of $170.84 in November 2021. The present price is also lower than the 52-week average of $84.95 per share. 

Nonetheless, picking stocks that are down are the often most profitable opportunities. The question is, does Nike have a comeback strategy? 

Under the previous CEO, John Donahoe, Nike underwent several restructuring efforts, including the move towards direct-to-consumer model. This turned out to be a bad move, opening up opportunities for New Balance, On, Adidas and other competitors.

In short, the company needs to move away from its outdated reliance on legacy Air Jordans, as new brands are more popular with the younger crowd. The new CEO Elliott Hill seems to be aware of this, as he emphasized the need to enhance Nike’s digital presence. 

Hill also believes that excessive discounting eroded Nike’s premium branding as well as overreliance on lifestyle instead of core sports. If Hill is proven right, Nike could be a big gainer for investors in 2025. 

At the moment, Piper Sandler and BMO Capital analysts placed the NKE price targets at $90 and $95 respectively. Per WSJ, the average NKE price target is $84.57 per share.

Do you watch the Super Bowl for sports or as a media spectacle? Let us know in the comments below.

Disclaimer: The author does not hold or have a position in any securities discussed in the article. All stock prices were quoted at the time of writing.

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Neither the author, Tim Fries, nor this website, The Tokenist, provide financial advice. Please consult our  website policy prior to making financial decisions.

Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) is facing significant challenges on two fronts, affecting its stock performance and business operations. The announcement of new tariffs by the Trump administration and a potential investigation by China’s antitrust authorities have created uncertainty for the tech giant. These developments have resulted in a noticeable dip in Apple’s stock value and raised concerns about its future profitability and market strategies.

Apple’s Woes Compound in China

The recent imposition of a 10% tariff on Chinese imports by President Trump has had an immediate impact on Apple’s stock, which fell by over 3%. This decline reflects investor apprehension about the potential effects on Apple’s profit margins, given that the company relies heavily on Chinese assembly for its products. Analysts speculate that Apple may pass these increased costs onto consumers, a move that could have broader implications, including possible backlash from the Trump administration. The tariffs are expected to be implemented soon, adding urgency to Apple’s need to address these financial pressures.

In addition to tariff-related challenges, Apple is also under scrutiny from China’s State Administration for Market Regulation, which is considering an investigation into the company’s app store practices. The focus is on Apple’s 30% commission on in-app purchases and its restrictions on external payment services. This inquiry could exacerbate existing trade tensions between the United States and China. Although the investigation was initially contemplated before the current administration, its timing coincides with the tariff announcements, potentially leading to formal action if Apple does not modify its practices.

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Despite the Recent Dip, Apple’s Financial Metrics Remain Strong

Apple’s stock has shown volatility in light of these developments. The stock opened at $228.49 and reached a day high of $230.515, before settling at $229.32 at the time of writing.Despite the recent dip, Apple has maintained a strong market presence with a market capitalization of $3.445 trillion. Over the past year, the stock has fluctuated between a low of $164.08 and a high of $260.10. Analysts continue to recommend buying Apple stock, with a target mean price of $252.21, indicating confidence in the company’s long-term potential despite current challenges.

Apple’s financial metrics reveal a robust foundation, with a trailing P/E ratio of 36.34 and a forward P/E ratio of 27.77. The company’s total revenue stands at $391.03 billion, supported by a trailing EPS of $6.31 and a forward EPS of $8.31. However, the debt to equity ratio of 209.06% and a price to book ratio of 60.88 highlight areas of financial leverage that may require attention. Analysts have set a high target price of $325.00 for Apple, reflecting optimism about its ability to navigate current obstacles and sustain growth in the future.

Disclaimer: The author does not hold or have a position in any securities discussed in the article. All stock prices were quoted at the time of writing.

The post Apple’s Stock Dips Amid New U.S. Tariffs and Chinese Antitrust Concerns appeared first on Tokenist.

Neither the author, Tim Fries, nor this website, The Tokenist, provide financial advice. Please consult our  website policy prior to making financial decisions.

Electronic Arts (NYSE: EA) recently announced its third-quarter financial results for fiscal year 2025, revealing a slight miss on Wall Street’s earnings projections. The company reported an earnings per share (EPS) of $2.83, falling short of the anticipated $2.88. Revenue for the quarter stood at $2.22 billion, marking a 6.4% decrease compared to the same period last year and below the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.25 billion. Despite these setbacks, EA unveiled a $1 billion accelerated stock repurchase plan, which buoyed investor sentiment, leading to a 2% increase in premarket trading.

EA Recent Financial Performance Hit by Decline in In-Game Spending

EA’s recent financial performance has been impacted by a decline in in-game spending, particularly for its popular title “FC 25,” as well as underwhelming results from its new Dragon Age release. The company reaffirmed its full-year outlook, although it set the upper limits of its earnings and bookings guidance lower than consensus expectations. Analysts from Bank of America have pointed to potential gameplay tuning issues in FC 25 as a factor reducing player engagement. Nonetheless, EA’s CEO, Andrew Wilson, expressed optimism regarding the company’s long-term growth prospects, highlighting the success of the EA SPORTS FC 25 Team of the Year event as a positive indicator.

Following the announcement of the earnings report and stock buyback plan, EA’s stock exhibited positive movement. The stock opened on February 5, 2025, at $127.34, up from the previous close of $121.25. By mid-morning, the price had climbed to $128.535, with fluctuations observed within the day, reaching a low of $126.21 and a high of $130.56. Over the past year, EA’s stock has experienced a range from a low of $115.21 to a high of $168.5. The recent recovery from January’s low to the current price indicates renewed investor confidence, possibly fueled by the buyback announcement.

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Analyst Remain Optimistic on EA Stock

EA’s market metrics provide further insight into its current standing. The company’s market capitalization is valued at $33.71 billion, and it maintains a dividend rate of $0.76 with a yield of 0.62%. The trailing price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is 32.71, while the forward P/E ratio is notably lower at 17.07, suggesting expectations of improved future earnings. With a buy recommendation and a target mean price of $143.78, analysts appear cautiously optimistic about the stock’s potential, despite the fiscal year 2025 guidance falling short of Wall Street estimates.

Disclaimer: The author does not hold or have a position in any securities discussed in the article. All stock prices were quoted at the time of writing.

The post EA’s $1B Buyback Plan Boosts Investor Confidence Amid 6.4% Revenue Drop appeared first on Tokenist.

Neither the author, Tim Fries, nor this website, The Tokenist, provide financial advice. Please consult our  website policy prior to making financial decisions.

AMD’s stock (NYSE: AMD) experienced a sharp decline after Citi downgraded its rating from Buy to Neutral. This downgrade was attributed to concerns about the company’s slowing AI growth, weaker margin leverage, and inventory buildup. As a result, AMD’s shares dropped over 10% in premarket trading, with Citi also lowering its price target from $175 to $110. Despite AMD reporting better-than-expected revenue for the fourth quarter, the market’s focus on inventory and operational inefficiencies overshadowed these positive results. The stock opened at $107.685 on February 5, 2025, and continued to hover around $107.35 later in the morning, marking a significant drop from its previous close of $119.50.

AMD Posts Disappointing Outlook for AI Growth

The decline in AMD’s stock price was further exacerbated by the company’s disappointing outlook for AI growth, particularly in its data center business. Despite a 69% increase in data center revenue, the figures fell short of analysts’ expectations, raising concerns about AMD’s ability to compete with industry leaders like Nvidia. The stock’s day low reached $106.5, which also marked its 52-week low, while the day high was $108.5. This volatility reflects investor apprehension about AMD’s future prospects in the AI market, despite the company’s efforts to enhance its product offerings. Analysts remain divided, with recommendations ranging from a high target price of $250 to a low of $90, indicating uncertainty about the company’s trajectory.

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Markets Finding Stability Post Trump Tariff Tantrum

In contrast to AMD’s challenges, the broader stock market demonstrated stability despite geopolitical uncertainties. President Trump’s tariff plans have not significantly deterred Wall Street’s optimistic outlook. The S&P 500 showed a slight increase, with volatility remaining within expected limits. Analysts from Deutsche Bank and Barclays continue to project strong earnings growth, with the S&P 500’s year-over-year earnings growth estimated at 13.2% for the fourth quarter. This bullish sentiment is driven by expectations of continued earnings acceleration, suggesting that the market is poised to weather the impacts of trade tensions.

Disclaimer: The author does not hold or have a position in any securities discussed in the article. All stock prices were quoted at the time of writing.

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Neither the author, Tim Fries, nor this website, The Tokenist, provide financial advice. Please consult our  website policy prior to making financial decisions.

Fiserv, Inc. (NYSE: FI), a prominent player in the payments and financial services technology sector, reported strong financial results for the fourth quarter and the full year of 2024. The company achieved a 7% increase in GAAP revenue, reaching $5.25 billion for the quarter compared to the same period in the previous year. This growth was driven by an 11% rise in the Merchant Solutions segment and a 3% increase in the Financial Solutions segment. For the entire year, Fiserv’s GAAP revenue also grew by 7% to $20.46 billion, with the Merchant Solutions segment experiencing a 10% growth and the Financial Solutions segment growing by 4%.

Fiserv, Inc. Reports 13% y/y Growth in GAAP EPS in Fourth-Quarter

The company’s GAAP earnings per share (EPS) for the fourth quarter was $1.64, marking a 13% increase from the previous year. For the full year, GAAP EPS rose by 8% to $5.38. These results were achieved despite a $595 million non-cash impairment charge related to one of Fiserv’s equity method investments and a $147 million non-cash settlement charge for terminated pension plans in the fourth quarter. The operating margin also improved, standing at 31.8% for the fourth quarter and 28.7% for the full year, up from 29.4% and 26.3%, respectively, in the previous year.

Adjusted revenue for the fourth quarter increased by 7% to $4.90 billion, while for the full year, it reached $19.12 billion, also reflecting a 7% increase. Organic revenue growth was particularly strong, with a 13% rise in the fourth quarter, driven by a 23% growth in the Merchant Solutions segment and a 4% growth in the Financial Solutions segment. For the entire year, organic revenue grew by 16%, led by a 27% growth in the Merchant Solutions segment and a 6% growth in the Financial Solutions segment. Adjusted EPS for the fourth quarter increased by 15% to $2.51, while for the full year, it rose by 17% to $8.80.

Fiserv’s fourth-quarter performance exceeded market expectations, showcasing its robust business model. The company reported an adjusted EPS of $2.51, surpassing the anticipated EPS of $2.49. This 15% increase in adjusted EPS compared to the previous year underscores Fiserv’s ability to deliver consistent earnings growth, driven by strong operational performance across its segments.

Revenue expectations were also met, with the company reporting $5.25 billion in GAAP revenue for the quarter, slightly above the expected $4.96 billion. The Merchant Solutions segment played a significant role in this achievement, with an 11% growth rate, while the Financial Solutions segment contributed with a 3% increase. The adjusted revenue of $4.90 billion for the quarter, although slightly below GAAP revenue, reflects a solid 7% growth from the previous year, aligning closely with market expectations.

The company’s ability to exceed EPS expectations while closely meeting revenue forecasts highlights its operational efficiency and strategic focus on high-margin segments. The adjusted operating margin for the fourth quarter increased by 180 basis points to 42.9%, indicating improved profitability and effective cost management.

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Fiserv Expects Adjusted EPS in the Range of $10.10 to $10.30 for Full Year 2025

Fiserv has provided optimistic guidance, projecting organic revenue growth between 10% and 12%. The company also anticipates adjusted EPS to range from $10.10 to $10.30, representing growth of 15% to 17%. This guidance reflects Fiserv’s confidence in its ongoing initiatives within the Merchant and Financial Solutions segments, which have already shown promising early results.

Frank Bisignano, Chairman and CEO of Fiserv, expressed confidence in the company’s ability to meet or exceed its medium-term outlook, emphasizing the success of its product, client, and distribution strategies. The guidance for 2025 is built on Fiserv’s commitment to operational excellence and its strategic focus on enhancing its integrated portfolio of products and solutions. The company’s realignment of its reportable segments in 2024 is expected to further support this growth trajectory.

Disclaimer: The author does not hold or have a position in any securities discussed in the article. All stock prices were quoted at the time of writing.

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