Stockmoney Lizards
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Bitcoin - weekend update.
Trading at the upper level of the channel, forming some dojis here.
I don't know how many bounces we will see and what levels we will test (maybe local bottom was in, maybe the range between 90 - 94k gets retested. If I had to bet I would say we probably tap high 90s again).
But this is a bullish formation. We had an impulsive move up. And now it's the usual money rotation ("old" traders selling, new traders loading up at range lows, some liquidations etc).
My mid-term targets (September / October): 135 - 145k.
Not financial advice
Trading at the upper level of the channel, forming some dojis here.
I don't know how many bounces we will see and what levels we will test (maybe local bottom was in, maybe the range between 90 - 94k gets retested. If I had to bet I would say we probably tap high 90s again).
But this is a bullish formation. We had an impulsive move up. And now it's the usual money rotation ("old" traders selling, new traders loading up at range lows, some liquidations etc).
My mid-term targets (September / October): 135 - 145k.
Not financial advice
Have you ever held an Altcoin through a 100-1000x move without selling early?
#Bitcoin
🔹Yes, it's a bull flag.
🔹No, we have not broken out yet.
🔹Yes, we can potentially retest the range low / POC
🔹Yes, we will be trading MUCH higher by the end of the year.
🔹Yes, it's a bull flag.
🔹No, we have not broken out yet.
🔹Yes, we can potentially retest the range low / POC
🔹Yes, we will be trading MUCH higher by the end of the year.
Are you awake yet?
WW3 fears = FUD and liquidity hunt.
Good luck to those who "sold all their #Bitcoin"...
WW3 fears = FUD and liquidity hunt.
Good luck to those who "sold all their #Bitcoin"...
#Bitcoin
MVRV Z-Score - in my opinion the most important on-chain metric - tells us the true story of where we are in the BTC cycle.
MVRV shows the difference between Bitcoin's market cap and what people actually paid for their coins (realized cap). The Z-Score normalizes this data.
Simple version: When it's high (red zone), people are sitting on massive profits and usually sell. When it's low (green zone), people are underwater and smart money buys.
Look at the pattern: Every major top coincided with MVRV Z-Score above 7-9 (red area) 2017: Hit 9+ before the crash 2021: Hit 7+ before the crash 2025: We're sitting at around 2
We're not even close to the danger zone yet. People aren't massively overextended on profits like they were at previous tops. This tells me we've got room to run.
MVRV Z-Score - in my opinion the most important on-chain metric - tells us the true story of where we are in the BTC cycle.
MVRV shows the difference between Bitcoin's market cap and what people actually paid for their coins (realized cap). The Z-Score normalizes this data.
Simple version: When it's high (red zone), people are sitting on massive profits and usually sell. When it's low (green zone), people are underwater and smart money buys.
Look at the pattern: Every major top coincided with MVRV Z-Score above 7-9 (red area) 2017: Hit 9+ before the crash 2021: Hit 7+ before the crash 2025: We're sitting at around 2
We're not even close to the danger zone yet. People aren't massively overextended on profits like they were at previous tops. This tells me we've got room to run.
#Bitcoin
let's zoom out for a moment. Cycle dynamics, long-timeframe metrics (including on-chain and technical indicators) show us the way.
We still have an explosive leg up in front of us - meaning we believe in our previously announced YE target of +200k.
When will this be? Honestly, no clue when it starts. But I would assume we still have a little bit of summer zig zag in front of us (including all this newsflow of war, oil crisis etc).
But Q4 is definitely a phase where we should see some strong moves again.
HODL and buy dips (of course, this is not financial advice)
let's zoom out for a moment. Cycle dynamics, long-timeframe metrics (including on-chain and technical indicators) show us the way.
We still have an explosive leg up in front of us - meaning we believe in our previously announced YE target of +200k.
When will this be? Honestly, no clue when it starts. But I would assume we still have a little bit of summer zig zag in front of us (including all this newsflow of war, oil crisis etc).
But Q4 is definitely a phase where we should see some strong moves again.
HODL and buy dips (of course, this is not financial advice)
Crypto portfolios look like crap now. Understood... #Bitcoin #Altcoins
But people forget some really simple market mechanics and basics: Markets don't "hate war" - they hate uncertainty.
Look at the #SPX chart here. I plotted the major wars with US participation in the past 100 years.
Notice anything? The moment it started, we saw a drop. After the drop? IMPULSIVE RECOVERY.
Now, ask yourself today: Is a 30% drop an opportunity? Or should I panic and sell?
I can answer this question very clearly for myself. DYOR. Not financial advice.
But people forget some really simple market mechanics and basics: Markets don't "hate war" - they hate uncertainty.
Look at the #SPX chart here. I plotted the major wars with US participation in the past 100 years.
Notice anything? The moment it started, we saw a drop. After the drop? IMPULSIVE RECOVERY.
Now, ask yourself today: Is a 30% drop an opportunity? Or should I panic and sell?
I can answer this question very clearly for myself. DYOR. Not financial advice.
#Bitcoin
Limits are in place for the correction before the next leg up.
"Macro" will not be the game changer. The path is clear - but "macro" might influence short-term dips and peaks.
I think we might retest mid 90ks - I prepare for this scenario, limits are in place.
If it doesn't happen - good enough- Be prepared and don't act emotionally.
Limits are in place for the correction before the next leg up.
"Macro" will not be the game changer. The path is clear - but "macro" might influence short-term dips and peaks.
I think we might retest mid 90ks - I prepare for this scenario, limits are in place.
If it doesn't happen - good enough- Be prepared and don't act emotionally.
#Bitcoin
Herd mentality: Bitcoin is going down due to WW3.
Remember when cramer called a black swan event and stocks closed green?
Or when inflation was high, macro was "bad" (loved these comments) and bitcoin surged from 15k to 100k?
Or when everyone said: Trump is going to send everything way higher?
I think it is time to accept that the masses will be wrong another time.
Bitcoin can dip, sure. 105k, 102k, 97k, 94k.
We will be much higher 3 months from now.
Personal opinion. Not financial advice.
Herd mentality: Bitcoin is going down due to WW3.
Remember when cramer called a black swan event and stocks closed green?
Or when inflation was high, macro was "bad" (loved these comments) and bitcoin surged from 15k to 100k?
Or when everyone said: Trump is going to send everything way higher?
I think it is time to accept that the masses will be wrong another time.
Bitcoin can dip, sure. 105k, 102k, 97k, 94k.
We will be much higher 3 months from now.
Personal opinion. Not financial advice.
Posted this one a while ago before #Bitcoin broke out. Yesterday's PA looked strong, but with today's rejection it's likely we stay in the range for a bit longer.
Macro outlook is still bullish. 130k by October 2025.
Macro outlook is still bullish. 130k by October 2025.
I don't expect this rebound to lead to an immediate breakout.
Short-term, I think we have a bit of downside left now if POC breaks (104k), mid-term is bullish. ATH got delayed.
Short-term, I think we have a bit of downside left now if POC breaks (104k), mid-term is bullish. ATH got delayed.
#Bitcoin
I don't expect this rebound to lead to an immediate breakout.
Short-term, I think we have a bit of downside left now if POC breaks (104k), mid-term is bullish. ATH got delayed.
I don't expect this rebound to lead to an immediate breakout.
Short-term, I think we have a bit of downside left now if POC breaks (104k), mid-term is bullish. ATH got delayed.
#Bitcoin
Geopolitical Events Are Just Noise in the Long-Term Trend
If you think new WW3 fears will be the end of crypto, you are mistaken.
What do we see on the chart: Every red arrow marks a major war event since 2022. The pattern is crystal clear: Bitcoin doesn't care about your geopolitical FUD.
Sure, we get temporary dips. Markets react to headlines. Fear drives short-term volatility. But every single "world-ending" event becomes just a small blip on the larger trend.
The Ukraine war? Bitcoin went from 35k to 105k. And so on.
Historically, wars have had an impact on markets, for sure. But often it was just the effect of a strong economic crisis that resulted in war. Even after WW2, markets recovered quickly and went on to new highs.
Here's what really happens during these events: retail panics and sells, institutions accumulate. Market makers force liquidations to grab liquidity. While everyone's doom-scrolling Twitter about WW3, smart money is quietly buying the dip.
They know that territorial conflicts, missile strikes, and geopolitical tensions are temporary noise in a deflationary asset's long-term trajectory.
Even if we get a correction from current levels, this won't be the end. It will be used by big addresses to accumulate at better prices while retail capitulates on fear headlines.
Note: This post is merely descriptive and does not aim to seek blame or take sides in any territorial conflicts. It simply illustrates the historical relationship between geopolitical events and Bitcoin's price action for educational purposes.
Geopolitical Events Are Just Noise in the Long-Term Trend
If you think new WW3 fears will be the end of crypto, you are mistaken.
What do we see on the chart: Every red arrow marks a major war event since 2022. The pattern is crystal clear: Bitcoin doesn't care about your geopolitical FUD.
Sure, we get temporary dips. Markets react to headlines. Fear drives short-term volatility. But every single "world-ending" event becomes just a small blip on the larger trend.
The Ukraine war? Bitcoin went from 35k to 105k. And so on.
Historically, wars have had an impact on markets, for sure. But often it was just the effect of a strong economic crisis that resulted in war. Even after WW2, markets recovered quickly and went on to new highs.
Here's what really happens during these events: retail panics and sells, institutions accumulate. Market makers force liquidations to grab liquidity. While everyone's doom-scrolling Twitter about WW3, smart money is quietly buying the dip.
They know that territorial conflicts, missile strikes, and geopolitical tensions are temporary noise in a deflationary asset's long-term trajectory.
Even if we get a correction from current levels, this won't be the end. It will be used by big addresses to accumulate at better prices while retail capitulates on fear headlines.
Note: This post is merely descriptive and does not aim to seek blame or take sides in any territorial conflicts. It simply illustrates the historical relationship between geopolitical events and Bitcoin's price action for educational purposes.
#Bitcoin
"Who's selling?"
I could tell you. But it wouldn't matter.
Normal move after impulsive move up. Fair value gap filled. Neckline retested.
Higher.
"Who's selling?"
I could tell you. But it wouldn't matter.
Normal move after impulsive move up. Fair value gap filled. Neckline retested.
Higher.
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