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Bitcoin is hovering around $113,000, as cryptocurrency markets hold their breath as they watch the key Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Key decisions are likely to be announced today at 8:00 PM Warsaw time.
Federal Reserve (Fed) officials are expected to lower their interest rate target range by 25 basis points, moving it to a range of 4.00–4.25%, which historically tends to support risk assets like cryptocurrencies. Despite this, Bitcoin, the world's largest cryptocurrency, saw a slight decline of 0.7% over the past 24 hours, though it is still up 4.5% week-on-week. Other major tokens, such as Ethereum, are seeing similar modest losses, with a 1.4% decline. to around $4,028, as well as Solana and Binance Coin, each losing around 2%. On the other hand, the XRP token remains slightly higher, continuing its strong weekly rally as investors rotate into high-volume assets.
Macroeconomics dictates the terms, and liquidity declines
Thomas Perfumo, global economist at the Kraken exchange, emphasizes that the volatile macroeconomic situation is currently the dominant driver of the entire cryptocurrency cycle. Perfumo believes a 25 basis point cut is highly probable and is already largely factored into current market prices, with the market predicting another reduction by December. However, the expert notes, the sharp sell-off on October 10th served as a reminder of how vulnerable cryptocurrencies and risk assets remain to external shocks. The balance between institutional inflows and demand for government bonds has shifted, dampening short-term momentum, even as long-term capital remains stable. Perfumo notes that while demand from digital asset vaults like MicroStrategy is slowing, flows into ETFs remain bullish, reflecting the growing importance of cryptocurrencies in traditional finance.
🐳 Whales are setting themselves up for a trap, and analysts are warning
A worrying factor behind the Fed's decision is dwindling liquidity on centralized exchanges, which has fallen to around 40% of pre-October levels, according to Alice Li, partner at Foresight Ventures. Li adds that early signs of renewed stress among US regional banks could force the Fed to halt quantitative easing (QT) early, although inflation risks still prompt policymakers to remain cautious.
Analysis from X Platform indicates that whales (large investors) are increasing their exposure to long BTC positions, anticipating a post-FOMC rally. AlphaBTC's Mark Cullen warns of the risk of a short squeeze (a sharp price increase forcing the closing of short positions), pointing to a short squeeze trap above $115,000, just below the $117,000-$120,000 resistance zone.
Ran Neuner, in turn, points to the CME gap at $111,000, which is historically often filled by corrections before larger breakouts.
Despite concerns, FxPro analyst Alex Kuptsikevich maintains that Bitcoin's technical framework remains constructive, as the price remains above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, and the rebound from the support level at $108,000 maintains a bullish structure. The total cryptocurrency market capitalization remains at around $3.9 trillion, comfortably above key moving averages.
At the same time, analysts at 10x Research and CryptoQuant suggest that October 2025 could be the last window of opportunity for profits before a potential bearish entry on the market cycle chart, with a market bottom expected around October 2026. While sentiment remains fragile and liquidity is dwindling, an increase in volatility is almost certain around Wednesday's Fed announcement, especially if Jerome Powell's tone signals a slower easing of policy.
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Visa, one of the world's largest payments processors, announced a significant expansion of its stablecoin infrastructure during its fiscal fourth-quarter earnings conference call. The company announced support for four new stablecoins, which will run on four different blockchains. Visa CEO Ryan McInerney emphasized that the new solutions will enable the acceptance and conversion of these assets into more than 25 traditional fiat currencies.
Since 2020, Visa has processed over $140 billion in cryptocurrency and stablecoin transactions. In the last quarter, spending volume on stablecoin-linked cards quadrupled compared to the same period last year. Visa's stablecoin settlement network has now reached $2.5 billion in annual volume, confirming the growing role of these assets in the global payments system.
New Stablecoins and Blockchains in the Visa Ecosystem
Visa currently supports stablecoins such as USDC and EURC (issued by Circle), PYUSD (PayPal), and USDG (Global Dollar), running on the Ethereum, Solana, Stellar, and Avalanche blockchains. The announced expansion includes four additional stablecoins, most likely pegged to the US dollar and euro, which will be integrated with four new blockchains. The specific asset and chain names have not yet been disclosed, but Visa stated that the goal is to further increase interoperability between traditional finance (TradFi) and the crypto ecosystem.
A key element of the strategy is the Visa Tokenized Asset Platform (VTAP), which allows banks and financial institutions to issue and burn their own stablecoins. The platform operates in a secure, regulated environment, which is expected to accelerate the adoption of tokenized assets by traditional institutions.
Faster and cheaper cross-border payments
In September 2025, Visa launched the Visa Direct pilot program for stablecoins, enabling financial institutions to pre-fund cross-border payments using USDC and EURC. This reduced settlement times from days to minutes and significantly reduced transaction costs. This solution is suitable for applications such as remittance, e-commerce, and B2B payments**.
Stablecoins as the Foundation for the Future of Payments
The global volume of stablecoin transactions reached $46 trillion in 2025, making them one of the most dynamically growing segments of the financial market. Visa views stablecoins not as an alternative, but as a complementary payment system that could revolutionize global trade. Ryan McInerney emphasized that the company is working intensively to further develop the ecosystem: "We still have a lot of innovation ahead of us in this area." Visa is building a "network-of-networks" model, connecting various blockchains with traditional payment infrastructure to ensure seamless conversion between the crypto and fiat worlds.
Market Implications and Institutional Adoption
Expanding support for stablecoins is another step towards mainstream adoption of blockchain technology by the financial sector. Collaborations with issuers such as Circle, PayPal, and Paxos, as well as integration with multiple chains (including Solana, known for its high throughput, and Stellar, specializing in low-cost cross-border transfers), strengthen Visa's position as a leader in building bridges between TradFi and DeFi. For banks, this means the ability to offer customers modern, regulated stablecoin products. For users, it means simpler, faster, and cheaper payments in a hybrid environment, combining the advantages of cryptocurrencies with the reliability of traditional systems.
Visa is consistently pursuing its strategy of integrating stablecoins into the global payments system. The announcement of support for four new assets on four blockchains is not just a technical extension; it signals that the era of hybrid finance is becoming a reality. In the coming months, we can expect further partnerships, new integrations, and a growing role for stablecoins in everyday transactions.
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Today's US data releases give investors a mixed picture of the economy. The Richmond County Fed Regional Index rose (-4 after -17 previously and -12 in forecasts), though it remains negative. On the other hand, housing market data surprised on the upside. However, the October report on US consumer sentiment confirms the picture of an economy teetering between resilience and growing uncertainty.
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index fell slightly to 94.6 points, down from 95.6 points in September. While not a significant decline, it's still a decline. It's worth noting, however, that September's data was significantly revised upward from just under 94 in the first reading. In response to the US data, stock market indices rose, and Bitcoin surged to over $115,000.
The index assessing the current economic situation rebounded from around 125 to 129.3 points. Consumers are slightly more likely to perceive business conditions as good and acknowledge that the labor market continues to offer employment opportunities.
However, the more important part of the index – expectations for the next six months – weakened significantly, falling from over 73 to 71.5 points. This level has consistently remained below the 80 threshold since February, traditionally interpreted as a signal of increased risk of recession.
Inflation remains a key topic of discussion
Annual inflation expectations have risen alarmingly to 5.9 percent. This is still too high for consumers to make confident purchasing decisions. Promotions and cost calculations are becoming the primary criteria. Initial announcements regarding the holiday season predict lower spending on both gifts and other purchases. Americans want to maximize every dollar, but at the same time, they are not rushing to buy early, despite the risk of more expensive imported goods.
Shopping, Home, and Car – No Sudden Movements
October brought an increase in vehicle purchase intentions, primarily used ones. In turn, home purchase intentions weakened, although the broader, six-month trend still indicates some rebound. Sentiment regarding increased spending on consumer electronics and household appliances remains volatile and lacks a single dominant trend. Meanwhile, the services segment – including communications, automotive, and pet care – maintains stable demand, demonstrating that households are not ready to sacrifice their standard of living.
The Strong Remain Few
The most confident individuals are those with higher incomes – above $75,000 annually, with a clear predominance of those earning over $200,000. A decline in optimism was noted among younger consumers, as well as among the lowest-income households.
Political divisions also impact the data. Sentiment has improved among independent voters, while Democrats and Republicans are reporting a slight decline in confidence, which may be attributed to the continuing political stalemate and the risk of further disruptions to the federal government.
This year's survey once again highlights the expectations indicator, which signals caution, though not outright panic. Americans aren't predicting a catastrophe, but they are closely monitoring the cost of living, the labor market, and the political environment. Is the stock market resilient? Nearly half of respondents expect prices to rise within a year. This demonstrates a belief in the strength of stock markets and large companies, despite the ongoing macroeconomic turbulence. Therefore, consumers aren't closing their wallets, but they're not opening them wide either.
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Companies that buy and hold Bitcoin and Ether have largely stopped accumulating after cryptocurrency prices plummeted earlier this month. Is this the end of the corporate bull market?
Do companies no longer want Bitcoin and Ether?
Companies that changed their profile and started buying BTC and ETH "largely" stopped accumulating cryptocurrencies after October 10 and "have not yet taken action in this direction" – repurchasing digital assets, noted David Duong, global director of investment research at Coinbase Institutional. He emphasized that "in the last two weeks, BTC purchases" by companies "have fallen to almost a yearly low."
The slowdown in cryptocurrency purchases signals the sector's caution towards cryptocurrencies.
Not everyone is giving up.
Duong noted that BitMine Immersion Technologies, a company investing in ether, has been the "only consistent buyer" since the market plunged. Since October 10th, it has spent over $1.9 billion buying nearly 483,000 ETH.
The company wasn't deterred by the fact that ether's price was falling in line with bitcoin's. The ETH/BTC pair was bleeding even more than the BTC/USD pair.
In fact, BitMine's strategy is logical: if the company is considering investing in ETH for the long term, it's profitable to buy at the lows, not at the highs.
The key question is whether the bull market is still ongoing. In my opinion, the answer is yes. So far, bitcoin and altcoins have been rising with high interest rates in the background. Tomorrow, October 29th, the Fed will decide on the next rate cut. Much indicates that the cuts will continue at least until the end of the year. Furthermore, Jerome Powell has already signaled that we are approaching the end of quantitative tightening, and therefore – in the longer term – a potential easing, which will translate into spikes in cryptocurrency valuations, as assets considered risky.
At the end of the year, Donald Trump is also expected to announce the name of Powell's potential successor at the Fed. Federal Reserve policy under someone like Trump could also fuel growth, as the president has long been pushing for more aggressive rate cuts.
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Following the crash in the digital currency market, the crisis continued for the past two weeks. However, last weekend saw several significant events and news that could set a new course in the coming days. Will cryptocurrencies return to their earlier-week highs? Here's a look at key news that could determine how cryptocurrencies will behave in the near future.
A Turning Point in US-China Relations: Cryptocurrencies React Swiftly
The main cause of the current problems experienced by the cryptocurrency market in recent weeks was the resurfacing of tensions between the US and China. Beijing announced significant restrictions on rare earth exports, to which Washington responded swiftly with massive tariffs. This event ended the rally that cryptocurrencies experienced in early October.
Last weekend appears to have seen a turning point in trade relations between the two countries. Both sides signaled that a new agreement is possible, which includes, among other things, a postponement of US tariffs on China and a delay in Chinese restrictions on rare earth exports. Donald Trump and Xi Jingping will take up this topic at the next APEC Gyeongju meeting in South Korea.
Cryptocurrencies reacted quickly to these reports. Within hours, the market saw a noticeable rebound. In just 24 hours, approximately $150 billion entered the digital currency market. Total market capitalization increased from $3.69 trillion to $3.84 trillion.
This is still a long way from the record high reached in early October, when market capitalization exceeded $4 trillion, but the positive momentum was very clear and allows us to look forward to the near future with hope.
The largest tokens return from a long journey
The end of last week was definitely successful and brought a noticeable improvement in performance for individual tokens as well. Bitcoin broke through $114,000 and rose 2.67% in the last 24 hours. In turn, the week closed with a 6.89% gain. It gained 5.16% in value over the month.
Other cryptocurrencies also gained. Ethereum has returned above $4,000 and is trading at $4,187 at the time of writing, having increased by 5.56% over the past 24 hours. On a year-to-date and monthly basis, the altcoin is gaining 7.24% and 7.63%, respectively.
XRP holders can also breathe a sigh of relief, as the token rose to $2.65 at the time of writing, having gained 2.18% over the past week. Over the past week, it gained a whopping 12.42%. However, the most important news is that BNB has overtaken the cryptocurrency rankings with the largest market capitalization. Binance Coin has slowed significantly, and the gap between the tokens has narrowed.
Also noteworthy is Solana, which has returned above $200. At the time of writing, it's trading at $202, and has increased by 3.42% daily. It's gaining 6.68% and 3.81% weekly and monthly, respectively.
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