Gold-1
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Save your brain cells for easy times or obvious trades
Until then the market is noise and likely not worth trying to squeeze the 5% PnD move on many alts
BTC and some alts put in a really solid move after Iran launched rockets at Qatar but that trade is likely now done
Right now retail don’t care about alts, it’s all institutional players wanting to buy up Bitcoin. The byproduct of this is crypto natives chasing some alts which resulted in these brief moves up
Retail is too focused on TradFi right now where everything is going up and to the right every single day. It shows you that the money is there bidding, just not bidding crypto… why would they?
Until then the market is noise and likely not worth trying to squeeze the 5% PnD move on many alts
BTC and some alts put in a really solid move after Iran launched rockets at Qatar but that trade is likely now done
Right now retail don’t care about alts, it’s all institutional players wanting to buy up Bitcoin. The byproduct of this is crypto natives chasing some alts which resulted in these brief moves up
Retail is too focused on TradFi right now where everything is going up and to the right every single day. It shows you that the money is there bidding, just not bidding crypto… why would they?
Many talking like they have any idea whats going on.
'its all for show' its 'to save face'.
Iran launches 8 rockets at Qatar, BTC bounces 0.5% and people immediately assume 'thats it'
I don't think its necessarily this simple. Trump is very unpredictable and volatile... That's one thing we can be confident about
Try not to lose your portfolio guessing 'the' bottom in the process and get chopped up.
My gut says we see choppy conditions for a while now even if this is the end of the Iran issue (i don't think it is)
'its all for show' its 'to save face'.
Iran launches 8 rockets at Qatar, BTC bounces 0.5% and people immediately assume 'thats it'
I don't think its necessarily this simple. Trump is very unpredictable and volatile... That's one thing we can be confident about
Try not to lose your portfolio guessing 'the' bottom in the process and get chopped up.
My gut says we see choppy conditions for a while now even if this is the end of the Iran issue (i don't think it is)
People forget that Bitcoin isn’t the volatile asset it once was
Bitcoin dropped 15% on the initial tariff black swan news at the beginning of march. Not even a global black swan event could push bitcoin down further than that in a single candle
I think readjust your bitcoin entry levels
Mid to low 90s for BTC is an all in scenario
If we drop more than that without a global catastrophe I think the cycle is done
It’s quite an easy line in the sand price marker
Bitcoin dropped 15% on the initial tariff black swan news at the beginning of march. Not even a global black swan event could push bitcoin down further than that in a single candle
I think readjust your bitcoin entry levels
Mid to low 90s for BTC is an all in scenario
If we drop more than that without a global catastrophe I think the cycle is done
It’s quite an easy line in the sand price marker
I am now in 100% synthetic fiat.
I’m unsure what happens next, and want to wait and see what develops before jumping into anything new
The month has been quite good despite giving back some initial profits... Expected at the tail end of a trend / good PnL run. In the past I would keep trading these conditions and give back profits, I refuse to do the same this time.. it’s time to take a forced hiatus
There are a few moving parts: tariff pause ending in under 2 weeks without much progress, trump bombing Iran nuclear facilities… how will Iran and its allies respond?
Tomorrow I will take some more chips off of the table and into the bank to help with peace of mind
Couple this with it being the summer now I honestly don’t have a super strong bias. I would rather wait until there’s more clarity in the market
Binance has been decent on the month with +$300k. The PnL curve is healthy and I intend to keep it that way
BYBIT has also been profitable but less so, I need to slow things down and become less reactive
In saying all of this, I don’t feel the need to short here either. It doesn’t feel particularly interesting to me
I’m unsure what happens next, and want to wait and see what develops before jumping into anything new
The month has been quite good despite giving back some initial profits... Expected at the tail end of a trend / good PnL run. In the past I would keep trading these conditions and give back profits, I refuse to do the same this time.. it’s time to take a forced hiatus
There are a few moving parts: tariff pause ending in under 2 weeks without much progress, trump bombing Iran nuclear facilities… how will Iran and its allies respond?
Tomorrow I will take some more chips off of the table and into the bank to help with peace of mind
Couple this with it being the summer now I honestly don’t have a super strong bias. I would rather wait until there’s more clarity in the market
Binance has been decent on the month with +$300k. The PnL curve is healthy and I intend to keep it that way
BYBIT has also been profitable but less so, I need to slow things down and become less reactive
In saying all of this, I don’t feel the need to short here either. It doesn’t feel particularly interesting to me
I am now in 100% synthetic fiat.
I’m unsure what happens next, and want to wait and see what develops before jumping into anything new
The month has been quite good despite giving back some profits. In the past I would keep trading these conditions and give back profits, I refuse to do the same this time.. it’s time to take a forced hiatus
There are a few moving parts: tariff pause ending in under 2 weeks without much progress, trump bombing Iran nuclear facilities… how will Iran and its allies respond?
Tomorrow I will take some more chips off of the table and into the bank to help with peace of mind
Couple this with it being the summer now I honestly don’t have a super strong bias. I would rather wait until there’s more clarity in the market
Binance has been decent on the month with +$300k. The PnL curve is healthy and I intend to keep it that way
BYBIT has also been profitable but less so, I need to slow things down and become less reactive
In saying all of this, I don’t feel the need to short here either. It doesn’t feel particularly interesting to me
I’m unsure what happens next, and want to wait and see what develops before jumping into anything new
The month has been quite good despite giving back some profits. In the past I would keep trading these conditions and give back profits, I refuse to do the same this time.. it’s time to take a forced hiatus
There are a few moving parts: tariff pause ending in under 2 weeks without much progress, trump bombing Iran nuclear facilities… how will Iran and its allies respond?
Tomorrow I will take some more chips off of the table and into the bank to help with peace of mind
Couple this with it being the summer now I honestly don’t have a super strong bias. I would rather wait until there’s more clarity in the market
Binance has been decent on the month with +$300k. The PnL curve is healthy and I intend to keep it that way
BYBIT has also been profitable but less so, I need to slow things down and become less reactive
In saying all of this, I don’t feel the need to short here either. It doesn’t feel particularly interesting to me
The list of coins on my tradingview watch list gets shorter and shorter every week.
Whereas before there was always ‘I will buy X if BTC nukes’, now the only thing I want to buy on a BTC nuke is BTC itself
I’m unsure if this is a permanent phenomenon or the new norm.
As well as this, holding times are getting shorter and shorter. Even compared to this time last year.
It’s interesting that we are ‘deep’ into a bull market and yet the trading environment is getting more and more difficult
I think now more than ever you need to be able to flip bias and be willing to take your wins even if you don’t want to. We are at the stage in cryptos maturity where even a lot of the greats from cycles past are getting hit badly, some even going to zero
There’s no room in this market for the half-hearted traders. You have to be all in or you’ll get eaten up by those willing to go the extra mile
As someone who spends every waking moment with an eye on the market you can smell it a mile away. I’ve met people who’ve made money in crypto and I’ve thought to myself: this guy wont make it.. simply by their attitude towards the market. Their lack of focus.
If you don’t love the game, you will be the food of someone who does
Whereas before there was always ‘I will buy X if BTC nukes’, now the only thing I want to buy on a BTC nuke is BTC itself
I’m unsure if this is a permanent phenomenon or the new norm.
As well as this, holding times are getting shorter and shorter. Even compared to this time last year.
It’s interesting that we are ‘deep’ into a bull market and yet the trading environment is getting more and more difficult
I think now more than ever you need to be able to flip bias and be willing to take your wins even if you don’t want to. We are at the stage in cryptos maturity where even a lot of the greats from cycles past are getting hit badly, some even going to zero
There’s no room in this market for the half-hearted traders. You have to be all in or you’ll get eaten up by those willing to go the extra mile
As someone who spends every waking moment with an eye on the market you can smell it a mile away. I’ve met people who’ve made money in crypto and I’ve thought to myself: this guy wont make it.. simply by their attitude towards the market. Their lack of focus.
If you don’t love the game, you will be the food of someone who does
Since this is an institutional led bull run the most profitable trades will be having foresight into what they will have most interest in
They are already showing you what they’re working towards
It’s not memes (retail led)
It’s not gaming (retail led)
It is first and foremost Bitcoin
It is stablecoins
It is real world assets
Don’t over complicate it or make it more difficult than it needs to be
They are already showing you what they’re working towards
It’s not memes (retail led)
It’s not gaming (retail led)
It is first and foremost Bitcoin
It is stablecoins
It is real world assets
Don’t over complicate it or make it more difficult than it needs to be
Some observations from the past week:
People are really freaking out, all the while BTC is trading in a 2% range
Many influencers thinking we break below 100k to between mid to low 90’s
This is the lowest volatility since 2023
We have the tariff pause ending in a little over 2 weeks. There have been no negotiations made with any major trading partners
The strikes between Iran and Israel are ongoing but there’s been no major negative development. Israel mentions they are drawing near the end of their operation
People are really freaking out, all the while BTC is trading in a 2% range
Many influencers thinking we break below 100k to between mid to low 90’s
This is the lowest volatility since 2023
We have the tariff pause ending in a little over 2 weeks. There have been no negotiations made with any major trading partners
The strikes between Iran and Israel are ongoing but there’s been no major negative development. Israel mentions they are drawing near the end of their operation
I’m really surprised there’s been no low cap dead projects announcing an SBR yet
Announce SBR > become relevant again
Announce SBR > become relevant again
We quite literally cannot go 48 hours without some random dog shit happening 😭
This is the sort of thing that will take time for the market to digest, and events evolve over time… Brand new headlines will affect the market acutely. Irans inevitable response will drop us again
The silver lining is that this isn’t an all out war (yet)
This is the sort of thing that will take time for the market to digest, and events evolve over time… Brand new headlines will affect the market acutely. Irans inevitable response will drop us again
The silver lining is that this isn’t an all out war (yet)
Narratives currently heating up:
- SOL etf + SOL staking tokens going into July
staking tokens looks to have most to gain comparatively to solana
- RWA
Institutional interest for real world assets are growing day by day and it won't slow down. I've been vocal about my belief that RWA will be the biggest sector for growth in 2025. institutional led bull market = institutional led narratives
- Stablecoins
This kind of ties in with rwa. I think they both work hand in hand. Big interest for stablecoins in the US. It's also in the US best interest to adopt stablecoins (leads to more buyers of USD)
- SOL etf + SOL staking tokens going into July
staking tokens looks to have most to gain comparatively to solana
- RWA
Institutional interest for real world assets are growing day by day and it won't slow down. I've been vocal about my belief that RWA will be the biggest sector for growth in 2025. institutional led bull market = institutional led narratives
- Stablecoins
This kind of ties in with rwa. I think they both work hand in hand. Big interest for stablecoins in the US. It's also in the US best interest to adopt stablecoins (leads to more buyers of USD)
We will never again have an altcoin season like we did in 2021 or 2017
If you are waiting for this to happen to make some money then you should start sending out your CV today
have a nice day
If you are waiting for this to happen to make some money then you should start sending out your CV today
have a nice day
TP’d 2 longs:
$GRASS - $63k (yesterday)
$ETH - $42k (today)
I had to stick to my plan. I took both of these as a short term trade.
GRASS ended up being a 1 week hold and several round trips in between (added because I believed in more upside). But it’s a bit of a pain in the ass to trade
ETH I took on Friday, I was wanting to let it play out longer but decided to close today… I’ve been burnt several times in ETH
I’m still in one RWA play, but I believe it has potential for much higher and will not exit that for the foreseeable future
$GRASS - $63k (yesterday)
$ETH - $42k (today)
I had to stick to my plan. I took both of these as a short term trade.
GRASS ended up being a 1 week hold and several round trips in between (added because I believed in more upside). But it’s a bit of a pain in the ass to trade
ETH I took on Friday, I was wanting to let it play out longer but decided to close today… I’ve been burnt several times in ETH
I’m still in one RWA play, but I believe it has potential for much higher and will not exit that for the foreseeable future
Remember: Don't let weekend price action cause you to make any emotional trading decisions
Position update:
My bias is that was the bottom. Pushed down due to the infighting between Trump and Elon. Also $100k retest confluence
I bought $ETH at $2417 on the move down. I think ETH will likely outperform BTC in the near term. The flows are ramping up, even beginning to outpace BTC. Large entities are also staking their eth
$SYRUP - nothing fundamentally has changed. The numbers are up only (TVL, revenue) and RWA fundamentals will only keep accelerating and improving. I really think this will be a kingmaker trade
$GRASS - another fundamental play. Also bounced well, lots of relative strength.
My bias is that was the bottom. Pushed down due to the infighting between Trump and Elon. Also $100k retest confluence
I bought $ETH at $2417 on the move down. I think ETH will likely outperform BTC in the near term. The flows are ramping up, even beginning to outpace BTC. Large entities are also staking their eth
$SYRUP - nothing fundamentally has changed. The numbers are up only (TVL, revenue) and RWA fundamentals will only keep accelerating and improving. I really think this will be a kingmaker trade
$GRASS - another fundamental play. Also bounced well, lots of relative strength.
Position update:
My bias is that was the bottom. Pushed down due to the infighting between Trump and Elon. Also $100k retest confluence
I bought $ETH at $1417 on the move down. I think ETH will likely outperform BTC in the near term. The flows are ramping up, even beginning to outpace BTC. Large entities are also staking their eth
$SYRUP - nothing fundamentally has changed. The numbers are up only (TVL, revenue) and RWA fundamentals will only keep accelerating and improving. I really think this will be a kingmaker trade
$GRASS - another fundamental play. Also bounced well, lots of relative strength.
My bias is that was the bottom. Pushed down due to the infighting between Trump and Elon. Also $100k retest confluence
I bought $ETH at $1417 on the move down. I think ETH will likely outperform BTC in the near term. The flows are ramping up, even beginning to outpace BTC. Large entities are also staking their eth
$SYRUP - nothing fundamentally has changed. The numbers are up only (TVL, revenue) and RWA fundamentals will only keep accelerating and improving. I really think this will be a kingmaker trade
$GRASS - another fundamental play. Also bounced well, lots of relative strength.
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