André Dragosch, PhD | Bitcoin & Macro
European Head of Research @ Bitwise - #Bitcoin - Macro - PhD in Financial History - Not investment advice - Views strictly mine - Beware of impersonators
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Remember:
All short sellers are potential future buyers.
(When they are forced to cover.)
Patience.
All short sellers are potential future buyers.
(When they are forced to cover.)
Patience.
If you’re a #bitcoin whale (holdings > 1,000 BTC), I would like to know why you’re selling right now.
(Yes - whales have started disrupting some of their holdings)
(Yes - whales have started disrupting some of their holdings)
🚨JUST IN: Year-to-date flows into global #bitcoin ETPs have just hit a new high!
In 2025, +14.3 bn USD have flown into global bitcoin ETPs so far.
What is more is that there is an interesting disconnect between flows and prices at the moment.
Opportunity?
In 2025, +14.3 bn USD have flown into global bitcoin ETPs so far.
What is more is that there is an interesting disconnect between flows and prices at the moment.
Opportunity?
🚨 Think #Bitcoin was conjured out of thin air?
Think again.
It’s the climax of decades-long innovation - and these top 10 quotes from my new book will change everything you thought you knew. 🧵👇
(bookmark this thread to revisit these insights anytime)
Think again.
It’s the climax of decades-long innovation - and these top 10 quotes from my new book will change everything you thought you knew. 🧵👇
(bookmark this thread to revisit these insights anytime)
Thanks to @Matyas44Cook, @kucharmartin_ and the whole crew at @BTCPrague for having me on stage!
Really grateful to be part of this community! 🙏
@BitcoinErrorLog @francispouliot_ @stephanlivera @giacomozucco
Really grateful to be part of this community! 🙏
@BitcoinErrorLog @francispouliot_ @stephanlivera @giacomozucco
@JulienBittelCFA has been posting interesting charts lately.
High-frequency indicators like raw industrial commodity prices, copper/gold etc have actually confirmed this revival in long leading indicators as well.
High-frequency indicators like raw industrial commodity prices, copper/gold etc have actually confirmed this revival in long leading indicators as well.
FWIW -- I personally think that the bullish thesis for #bitcoin is still very much intact:
- Structural bid by corporations & ETPs
- Pervasive demand overhang / supply deficit
- Declining on-exchange balances
- Macro turning extremely bullish (USD, Liquidity...)
BUT...
- Structural bid by corporations & ETPs
- Pervasive demand overhang / supply deficit
- Declining on-exchange balances
- Macro turning extremely bullish (USD, Liquidity...)
BUT...
Think one of the key reasons why #bitcoin & other assets defy going much lower during risk off is related to BTCTCs providing a constant floor but also related to the fact that global (excess) liquidity keeps grinding higher!
This bull market has long legs.
Rising tide.
This bull market has long legs.
Rising tide.
The Dollar tends to be a function of relative yield differentials & equity performances of the US vis-à-vis the G10 countries.
This explains most of the trend.
Deviations from that trend (residual) can generally be explained by overall uncertainty (e.g. VIX).
However, ...
This explains most of the trend.
Deviations from that trend (residual) can generally be explained by overall uncertainty (e.g. VIX).
However, ...
GM ☕️
The US Treasury posted a $316 billion budget deficit in May, the third-largest on record.
Got fiat insurance?
#bitcoin
The US Treasury posted a $316 billion budget deficit in May, the third-largest on record.
Got fiat insurance?
#bitcoin
🚨JUST IN: Dollar Index (DXY) touches new cycle lows as Fed rate cut expectations are being repriced.
DXY now at the lowest level since March 2022.
Very bullish implications for global money supply growth and #bitcoin.
DXY now at the lowest level since March 2022.
Very bullish implications for global money supply growth and #bitcoin.
GM ☕️
In 2025, the number of public companies that hold #bitcoin on their balance sheet has almost doubled from
*checks notes*
70 to 134 companies (+91%).
ACCELERATE.
In 2025, the number of public companies that hold #bitcoin on their balance sheet has almost doubled from
*checks notes*
70 to 134 companies (+91%).
ACCELERATE.
Is the Fed behind the curve?
I would lean YES since both inflation & employment metrics have deteriorated even more in a standard Taylor rule since the Fed stopped cutting rates in December 2024:
Core PCE inflation: 2.9% --> 2.5%
U3: 4.1% --> 4.2%
Taylor Rule: 3.5% vs 4.375%
I would lean YES since both inflation & employment metrics have deteriorated even more in a standard Taylor rule since the Fed stopped cutting rates in December 2024:
Core PCE inflation: 2.9% --> 2.5%
U3: 4.1% --> 4.2%
Taylor Rule: 3.5% vs 4.375%
𝗕𝗶𝘁𝗰𝗼𝗶𝗻 𝗶𝘀 𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗰𝗸𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗴𝗹𝗼𝗯𝗮𝗹 𝗹𝗶𝗾𝘂𝗶𝗱𝗶𝘁𝘆 — 𝗻𝗼𝘁 𝗵𝗲𝗮𝗱𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗲𝘀.
As the U.S. softens, we’re observing a shift in bitcoin’s macro sensitivity.
On July 2, I’ll explore together with @BradleyDukeBTC and @Matt_Hougan what the latest economic data tells us about:
→ The impact of a “quietcession” on Bitcoin
→ Key indicators seemingly driving price action
→ What institutional flow data can reveal about conviction
This webinar series is built for allocators who prioritize macro perspective over market noise.
This isn’t for headline-chasers. It’s for those building conviction through macro clarity.
📅 𝗝𝘂𝗹𝘆 𝟮 | 𝟯 𝗣𝗠 𝗟𝗼𝗻𝗱𝗼𝗻 / 𝟰 𝗣𝗠 𝗙𝗿𝗮𝗻𝗸𝗳𝘂𝗿𝘁
🔗Register via the link in the comments
🕒 𝗪𝗵𝘆 𝗷𝗼𝗶𝗻 𝗹𝗶𝘃𝗲?
→ A journey beyond the headlines into the data
→ Understand how global liquidity is shaping bitcoin
→ Engage directly in a macro-driven peer discussion
This is not investment advice. Professional investors only. Capital at risk.
#Bitcoin #Macro #Investing #Webinar
As the U.S. softens, we’re observing a shift in bitcoin’s macro sensitivity.
On July 2, I’ll explore together with @BradleyDukeBTC and @Matt_Hougan what the latest economic data tells us about:
→ The impact of a “quietcession” on Bitcoin
→ Key indicators seemingly driving price action
→ What institutional flow data can reveal about conviction
This webinar series is built for allocators who prioritize macro perspective over market noise.
This isn’t for headline-chasers. It’s for those building conviction through macro clarity.
📅 𝗝𝘂𝗹𝘆 𝟮 | 𝟯 𝗣𝗠 𝗟𝗼𝗻𝗱𝗼𝗻 / 𝟰 𝗣𝗠 𝗙𝗿𝗮𝗻𝗸𝗳𝘂𝗿𝘁
🔗Register via the link in the comments
🕒 𝗪𝗵𝘆 𝗷𝗼𝗶𝗻 𝗹𝗶𝘃𝗲?
→ A journey beyond the headlines into the data
→ Understand how global liquidity is shaping bitcoin
→ Engage directly in a macro-driven peer discussion
This is not investment advice. Professional investors only. Capital at risk.
#Bitcoin #Macro #Investing #Webinar
I'm not a geopolitical analyst but what I do know is that consistently high military expenditures relative to GDP tend to be a precursor to widespread military conflict...
It's a kind of "follow the money" logic.
Middle Eastern countries have consistently been the top spenders over the past decade.
Saudi Arabia and Israel even rank among the top 5 worldwide based on data by @SIPRIorg
It's a kind of "follow the money" logic.
Middle Eastern countries have consistently been the top spenders over the past decade.
Saudi Arabia and Israel even rank among the top 5 worldwide based on data by @SIPRIorg
🚨ATTENTION: Global central banks are already cutting rates the most since 2008!
1Y rolling global rate cuts: 54
This chart actually underpins one of my key bullish #bitcoin macro theses for 2025 and beyond because it is still remains largely underreported...
1Y rolling global rate cuts: 54
This chart actually underpins one of my key bullish #bitcoin macro theses for 2025 and beyond because it is still remains largely underreported...
GM ☕️
Bitcoin‘s performance is increasingly being skewed to the upside as a growing group of buyers — corporations— are continuing to buy regardless of performance.
Limits downside volatility and increases upside volatility.
Bitcoin‘s performance is increasingly being skewed to the upside as a growing group of buyers — corporations— are continuing to buy regardless of performance.
Limits downside volatility and increases upside volatility.
Beautiful
GM ☕️
I don't now who needs to hear this but #bitcoin continues to exhibit a lower realized vol than major US equity indices despite record high geopolitical uncertainty.
I don't now who needs to hear this but #bitcoin continues to exhibit a lower realized vol than major US equity indices despite record high geopolitical uncertainty.
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