What I checked: 6/12 signals aligned â 4h trend: price < EMA50 < EMA200, bearish stack â Trend strength (ADX/DI, 15m): ADX 29.6 with sellers in control (DI+ 11.1 vs DIâ 29.8) â BTC backdrop: BTC trend is bearish and correlation is 0.61 â 4h RSI: 40.5, bearish momentum (below 45) â 1h RSI: 29.7, bearish momentum (below 45) â ïž Invalidation: the idea is wrong beyond 0.0251160
Bottom line: The setup carries a strong short bias with a 6 out of 12 signal tally. The strongest supporting factors are the 4h trend showing a bearish EMA stack, the 15m trend strength with ADX at 29.6 and DI- at 29.8, and the BTC backdrop showing a bearish trend with 0.61 correlation. The main against factor is the daily trend remaining in a mixed range, not a clean bearish structure.
Over to you: Are you seeing the daily range hold, or do you expect a break higher that invalidates this setup?
Full setup on the chart đ
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