Trump and Xi are meeting today. Worth watching for any ripple effects on markets, especially AI stocks.
But here's the thing: for equities to really find their footing, oil and yields need to settle down first.
Yesterday's story was all about PMIs and the stalled US/Iran talks. Result? Bond yields climbed again. The 10-year is now sitting at 5.10%. Stocks closed lower.
The real issue isn't just where rates are—it's how fast they've moved. The 10-year is up ~25bps in two weeks, ~35bps in four weeks. That's the kind of speed that usually starts to bite.
That said, corporate balance sheets are in solid shape right now. The big names have strong financials. So it would probably take a lot more tightening before we see serious damage to equities. Still, odds are rising that the Fed hikes again next month.
The Muse announcement gave $INTC and $AMD a brief pop on Monday, but that momentum seems spent. Macro is back in the driver's seat.
For now, all eyes on the Trump/Xi summit.
But here's the thing: for equities to really find their footing, oil and yields need to settle down first.
Yesterday's story was all about PMIs and the stalled US/Iran talks. Result? Bond yields climbed again. The 10-year is now sitting at 5.10%. Stocks closed lower.
The real issue isn't just where rates are—it's how fast they've moved. The 10-year is up ~25bps in two weeks, ~35bps in four weeks. That's the kind of speed that usually starts to bite.
That said, corporate balance sheets are in solid shape right now. The big names have strong financials. So it would probably take a lot more tightening before we see serious damage to equities. Still, odds are rising that the Fed hikes again next month.
The Muse announcement gave $INTC and $AMD a brief pop on Monday, but that momentum seems spent. Macro is back in the driver's seat.
For now, all eyes on the Trump/Xi summit.