Publier
Muhammad乃缦
·
--
Strong jobs. Rising inflation risk. Now the Fed has a real problem.
August NFP came in at 162K, crushing expectations, while unemployment held steady at 4.1%. On its own, this shows a still-resilient labor market — and it removes any urgency for the Fed to ease policy anytime soon.
But the real test arrives today with CPI.
August PPI already printed hot at +0.4% MoM and 5.4% YoY. Energy prices are climbing too. That combination makes the inflation side of the dual mandate much harder to dismiss.
My base case? Slightly bearish / risk-off into a hotter-than-expected CPI. I’m not treating a September rate hike as locked in, but the bar for the Fed to stay on hold is getting higher.
If core CPI comes in above expectations, rate-hike odds will jump. That usually means higher Treasury yields + a stronger dollar = more pressure on stocks and gold.
If CPI lands soft, the narrative can flip fast. A cooler print would weaken the case for a hike and give risk assets some breathing room.
For me, the key isn’t simply whether CPI is “high” or “low.” It’s how far it lands from market expectations.
That’s where the real reaction will come from.
Bullish or bearish? Still waiting on the number before choosing a clear side.
#CPIWatch
$TFUEL
$RAY
$LSK
August NFP came in at 162K, crushing expectations, while unemployment held steady at 4.1%. On its own, this shows a still-resilient labor market — and it removes any urgency for the Fed to ease policy anytime soon.
But the real test arrives today with CPI.
August PPI already printed hot at +0.4% MoM and 5.4% YoY. Energy prices are climbing too. That combination makes the inflation side of the dual mandate much harder to dismiss.
My base case? Slightly bearish / risk-off into a hotter-than-expected CPI. I’m not treating a September rate hike as locked in, but the bar for the Fed to stay on hold is getting higher.
If core CPI comes in above expectations, rate-hike odds will jump. That usually means higher Treasury yields + a stronger dollar = more pressure on stocks and gold.
If CPI lands soft, the narrative can flip fast. A cooler print would weaken the case for a hike and give risk assets some breathing room.
For me, the key isn’t simply whether CPI is “high” or “low.” It’s how far it lands from market expectations.
That’s where the real reaction will come from.
Bullish or bearish? Still waiting on the number before choosing a clear side.
#CPIWatch
$TFUEL
$RAY
$LSK
Avertissement : ce contenu inclut des opinions de tiers. Il ne constitue pas un conseil. Binance Ai peut être utilisée, sans garantie de résultat. Consultez les CG.