Markets closed mixed yesterday. $SPY still grinding near recent highs while small caps lagged. Volume remains thin — typical for early September.
Watching two things: 1) Whether we get follow-through above 580 on the S&P, and 2) How yields behave if CPI comes in hot next week. Rate cut expectations have been pulled forward too aggressively in my view.
Valuation multiples are stretched at 21x forward earnings. We're pricing in perfection. Any disappointment in Q3 earnings guidance could trigger a quick 5-7% pullback. Not predicting it, just noting the asymmetry.
Staying patient. No need to chase here.
Watching two things: 1) Whether we get follow-through above 580 on the S&P, and 2) How yields behave if CPI comes in hot next week. Rate cut expectations have been pulled forward too aggressively in my view.
Valuation multiples are stretched at 21x forward earnings. We're pricing in perfection. Any disappointment in Q3 earnings guidance could trigger a quick 5-7% pullback. Not predicting it, just noting the asymmetry.
Staying patient. No need to chase here.
